- 1 Napoli vs Roma: ninth hosts third, with seven points between them
- 2 Napoli: two defeats in a row and a long list of absentees
- 3 Roma: five clean sheets in seven and still unbeaten in Serie A
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Napoli vs Roma
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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- 10 Legal age
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Napoli vs Roma: ninth hosts third, with seven points between them 
Napoli have lost their last two games, 3-1 at Villarreal in the Champions League on 13 October and 1-0 at Venezia four days later. Roma come to the Maradona on Saturday unbeaten in the league and seven points better off.
Kick-off at the Maradona is at 17:00 UK time. Roma are third on 17 points from seven games, five wins and two draws, with a goal difference of +13. Napoli are ninth on 10 points after three wins, a draw and three defeats.
The defensive gap is the number I keep coming back to. Roma have conceded three league goals in seven matches, the fewest of any side in Europe’s big five leagues, and they’ve kept a clean sheet in five of those seven. Napoli have conceded seven in the same number of games.
The record in this fixture favours Napoli at home. Roma haven’t won a league game in Naples since 2017, and their last three visits ended 2-2 in April 2024, 1-0 to Napoli in November 2024 and 2-2 again on 15 February this year. Napoli also won the reverse fixture 1-0 in Rome last November.
The six most recent meetings have been tight: three draws, two Napoli wins by a single goal and a 2-0 Roma win at the Olimpico in December 2023. Four of the six finished under 2.5 goals.
Both clubs played in the Champions League on Tuesday, Napoli at home to Bodø/Glimt and Roma at home to Slovan Bratislava, so neither has the fresher legs going into Saturday.
Napoli: two defeats in a row and a long list of absentees 
The 1-0 defeat at Venezia on 17 October was Napoli’s third league loss of the season. It came days after Villarreal beat them 3-1, and it undid the good of a 3-0 home win over Frosinone on 10 October.
Napoli’s league form at the Maradona has held up better than their away results. They beat Frosinone and Bologna at the Maradona, the Bologna game 1-0 on 13 September, while the 0-1 against Arsenal in September was a Champions League night rather than a league one.
Napoli’s injury list runs deep going into Saturday. Alessandro Buongiorno, Frank Anguissa and David Neres are among the absentees, so the manager loses a centre-back, a midfielder and a winger from the same squad.
Napoli are expected to line up in a 3-5-2, with Meret in goal behind Beukema, Rrahmani and Badiashile. Di Lorenzo and Spinazzola provide the width, with Gilmour, Lobotka and McTominay in midfield and Giovane alongside Lucca up front.
Napoli have generated 21.1 expected goals in seven league games, eighth-highest in Europe’s big five leagues, and turned that into 10 actual goals.
Three clean sheets from seven league games is respectable, and Meret has a 33.6% shutout rate across his career, so the problem has been finishing more than defending.
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Roma: five clean sheets in seven and still unbeaten in Serie A 
Roma beat Genoa 2-0 at home last Saturday. Before that they drew 0-0 at Como on 11 October, drew 2-2 with Inter on 19 September and won 2-0 at Torino on 14 September.
The only side to score more than once against them in the league is Inter. Roma’s other six league games produced one goal conceded between them and a goal difference of +13 after seven rounds.
In the Champions League Roma have been easier to score against. They lost 4-3 to Real Madrid in Rome on 14 October and drew 1-1 at Fenerbahce in September, so this defence isn’t impossible to break when the opponent has quality in attack.
Roma will travel to Naples without several regulars. Mile Svilar, Bryan Cristante, Manu Koné and Paulo Dybala are all on the absentee list, which is why Pierluigi Gollini is expected in goal.
The probable XI is a 3-4-2-1: Koulierakis, Ndicka and Balerdi in a back three, Rensch and Lulli on the flanks, Pisilli and De Roon in the centre, with Mora and Soulé behind Castro.
Roma have scored 16 league goals, more than two a game, and 14 of those came in their five wins. Gollini has a 66.8% save percentage over his career, the one figure in their numbers that gives Napoli something to aim at.
Probable lineup Napoli: Meret; Beukema, Rrahmani, Badiashile; Di Lorenzo, Gilmour, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola; Giovane, Lucca
Probable lineup Roma: Gollini; Koulierakis, Ndicka, Balerdi; Rensch, Pisilli, De Roon, Lulli; Mora, Soulé; Castro
Free Serie A Prediction: Napoli vs Roma
Our prediction: Roma to win at 2.60
Roma are unbeaten in the league, have conceded three goals in seven games and arrive seven points clear of a Napoli side that’s lost twice in a row. At 2.60 the visitors are priced as if the gap between these sides were much smaller than the table shows.
The record in Naples is the case against. Roma haven’t won there since 2017, and they’re without Svilar, Cristante, Koné and Dybala. Napoli are missing just as much, though, with Buongiorno, Anguissa and Neres out.
I’d back the side with the better defence and the better run. Roma have kept five clean sheets in seven league games, and Napoli have scored one goal in their last two matches. Roma’s last league away trip ended 0-0 at Como, and a draw would hardly be a shock here, but at 2.60 the away win is the price I want.
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