- 1 Pafos vs Riga: David Luiz a doubt and three home league games without a Pafos goal
- 2 Pafos: fifth in Cyprus, and the goals have dried up at home
- 3 Riga FC: eight competitive games unbeaten, with Badamosi on 21 goals
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Pafos vs Riga
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Pafos vs Riga: David Luiz a doubt and three home league games without a Pafos goal 
David Luiz went off in Bergamo last Thursday with what looked like a hamstring or thigh problem. Pafos lost 3-1 to Atalanta, and their captain is a doubt for Thursday’s visit of Riga FC.
Elmas scored inside the first minute that night, Raspadori added a penalty and Scamacca made it 3-0 before half-time. Biel Teixeira’s late goal was the only thing Pafos took home.
The penalty came after Bruno Felipe fouled Zalewski. Lelê missed a good chance, and without goalkeeper Majecki’s saves the score would have been heavier.
Back in Cyprus they drew 0-0 with APOEL on Sunday. That’s three home league games running without a Pafos goal: 0-0 with Olympiakos Nicosia on 7 September, 0-2 against AEL Limassol on 18 September and now APOEL.
Riga arrive unbeaten in eight competitive games. They drew 1-1 at home with Kairat Almaty on matchday one and beat Super Nova 2-1 on Saturday, and they’re second in the Latvian Virsliga with 76 points from 32 games.
Pafos haven’t won any of their last nine away games in UEFA competition. Thursday is at home, though, where they drew 3-3 with Salzburg and beat Dinamo City in August.
Kick-off at the Alphamega Stadium is 17:45 UK time on Thursday 22 October. The clubs have never met.
Pafos are priced between 1.57 and 1.69 to win. I’m not convinced by that price, and I’m less convinced by the idea of goals.
Pafos: fifth in Cyprus, and the goals have dried up at home 
Ricardo Sá Pinto’s Pafos are fifth with 11 points from six league games. Three wins, two draws and a defeat, and all three wins came on the road.
They won 3-0 at Karmiotissa, 1-0 at AEK Larnaca and 3-1 at Anorthosis on 11 October. At home the record is two draws and the AEL defeat, with no goals scored.
Lelê and Quina lead their league scoring with two each, and Anderson Silva has one. Biel’s goal in Bergamo is their only one in the league phase so far.
It hasn’t always been like this at the Alphamega. In August they drew 3-3 with Salzburg in Europa League qualifying and beat Dinamo City 4-2 to reach the league phase. On 3 September they also won the Super Cup, 1-0 against Omonia.
Luiz’s fitness is the main team news. His contract runs to the end of May 2027, and there’s been no word on how long he’ll be out.
Over their last six games Pafos have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with two wins, two draws and two defeats. They’re 32nd of 36 in the league-phase table after the Atalanta defeat.
Lelê is the shortest of their forwards to score at 2.45, ahead of Biel at 2.70 and Anderson at 2.95. None of the three has scored at home in the league this season.
Sá Pinto has options elsewhere. Mmaee and Correia are in the defensive group, Quina and Sunjic in midfield, and Bruno and Guga can come into the side if he rotates.
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Riga FC: eight competitive games unbeaten, with Badamosi on 21 goals 
Riga’s last defeat was 3-2 at Liepāja on 31 August. Since then they’ve won at RFS in the cup, drawn with Daugavpils and Auda, won 1-0 at Super Nova and 1-0 at Jelgava, and beaten Tukums 2-0 away.
The Virsliga numbers are strong: 23 wins, seven draws and two defeats from 32 games. Adrián Gula’s side have only been beaten twice all season in the league.
Mohamed Badamosi has 21 goals this season. Salah-Eddine Oulad M’Hand has nine goals and 11 assists, and Reginaldo Ramires has nine goals.
Oulad M’Hand scored the equaliser against Kairat on 12 minutes, set up by Maksims Toņiševs, after Marc Gual’s early penalty. Ramires came on for Badamosi on 61 minutes that night.
The supply comes from more than one place. Andrés Salazar and Raivis Jurkovskis have six assists each, and goalkeeper Kenan Pirić sits behind a defence that has conceded 0.83 per game over the last six.
Most of Riga’s recent wins have been narrow. Four of their last six competitive games finished with two goals or fewer.
Europe has followed the same pattern. In qualifying they drew 1-1 at Győri ETO and 0-0 in Klaksvík, then beat KÍ 2-1 in Riga to reach the league phase.
That draw with Kairat leaves them 19th with one point. Over their last six games they’ve averaged 2.0 goals scored and 0.83 conceded.
They’ve played in Cyprus recently too. Riga won a friendly 2-1 against Aris Limassol on 3 October, so the trip won’t be unfamiliar.
Probable lineup Pafos: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Riga FC: Not announced at time of publication
Free Conference League Prediction: Pafos vs Riga
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals (2.10)
Pafos haven’t scored in three home league games, and their captain may miss out. Riga’s run is built on 1-0 and 2-0 wins, with four of their last six competitive games finishing with two goals or fewer.
The August 3-3 against Salzburg is the warning. That was qualifying, with both sides chasing, and a league-phase game against a side that has only lost twice in Latvia is a different setting.
At 2.10, I’d take under 2.5 goals over either side to win. It’s the price that fits what both teams have done over the last six weeks.
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