- 1 FC Thun vs Hajduk Split: the Croatian leaders arrive after their first big European win since 2010
- 2 FC Thun: 27 conceded in 10 league games and a red card to cover
- 3 Hajduk Split: top in Croatia, with Šego and Livaja sharing the goals
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: FC Thun vs Hajduk Split
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Thun vs Hajduk Split: the Croatian leaders arrive after their first big European win since 2010 
Marin Soticek’s winner against Ajax last Thursday gave Hajduk Split their first win in a major European competition since September 2010. Abdoulie Sanyang had put them ahead on 37 minutes from Soticek’s pass, Davy Klaassen levelled after the break and Soticek settled it soon after from Michele Šego’s assist.
Hajduk followed it with a 1-0 win over Varaždin on Saturday. They’re top of the HNL, and in the last month they’ve also beaten Dinamo Zagreb 2-1.
FC Thun lost 1-0 at Twente on matchday one and didn’t have a shot on target. Ramiz Zerrouki scored on 65 minutes, five minutes after Patrik Kristal had been sent off following a VAR review.
In Switzerland Thun are ninth, with 10 points from 10 games and a goal difference of minus 10. Before the Twente game they’d won once in seven across all competitions.
Thun are the Swiss champions, which makes their place in the table harder to read. Their league season so far has three wins, one draw and six defeats, with 17 scored.
Kick-off at the Stockhorn Arena is 20:00 UK time on Thursday 22 October. The two clubs have never met.
Bookmakers have Hajduk as slight favourites, averaging 2.41 against 2.75 for Thun and 3.55 for the draw. I think that gap should be wider.
FC Thun: 27 conceded in 10 league games and a red card to cover 
Thun have conceded 27 times in 10 Super League matches. Zürich scored four against them on 10 October, Servette four at the Stockhorn Arena on 16 September and Sion three on 6 September.
Home form is the bigger worry. Grasshopper won 1-0 in Thun on 12 September and Servette won 4-2 four days later. Their last league win came at Vaduz, 2-1 on 20 September.
Europe has been rough too. In Europa League qualifying they lost 3-2 at Víkingur Reykjavík and 7-0 at Lech Poznań before drawing the return with Lech 2-2.
Gian-Luca Privitelli made five changes for Twente, and he’ll have to adjust again after Kristal’s red card, which came for a late challenge on Zerrouki. Simon Lengen is another option in attack, alongside Labeau and Furkan Dursun, who both started in Enschede. Captain Marco Bürki missed that game for family reasons, and there’s no update on whether he’s back.
It could have been worse in Enschede. Goalkeeper Niklas Steffen made several saves and a Twente goal on 25 minutes was ruled out by VAR for a foul on Käit.
Brighton Labeau leads their league scoring with three, with Fabio Saiz and Furkan Dursun on two each. On Sunday they drew 2-2 with Schaffhausen in the cup before a penalty shoot-out.
Over their last six games Thun have averaged 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded. They’re 29th in the league-phase table with no points and no goals.
Lugano visit on Sunday in the league. In Europe, Hearts come to the Stockhorn Arena on 5 November before a trip to Ajax, then Gent at home and CSKA Sofia away.
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Hajduk Split: top in Croatia, with Šego and Livaja sharing the goals 
Gonzalo García’s side have lost once since early September, 3-0 at Rijeka on 20 September. Every other result in that spell is a win.
That includes 4-0 at Rudeš, 2-0 at Vardarac in the cup, 1-0 against Slaven Belupo and then the Dinamo, Ajax and Varaždin wins this month. They’ve won three in a row since the Rijeka defeat.
Šego leads their league scoring with four, ahead of Marko Livaja on three and Sanyang on two. Toni Silić made the saves that kept Ajax out late on.
Dennis Hadžikadunić, left-back Šimun Hrgović and Dalisson de Almeida were all involved against Ajax. Šego and Alberto del Moral have both been booked in the league phase already.
The side is settled, and both teams are expected to line up in a 4-3-3 on Thursday. Hajduk have kept 87% of their starting XI across the last six matches, compared with 67% for Thun.
The one thing to watch is off the pitch. Play against Ajax was held up for about 15 minutes near the end because of pyrotechnics from the home end. Hajduk’s next HNL game comes two days after this one.
In Split, Hajduk have scored at least twice in each of their last five European home games. Thursday is their first away game of the league phase.
They sit 10th in the table with three points and a 2-1 goal record. A second win would take them to six points from two games.
Probable lineup FC Thun: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Hajduk Split: Not announced at time of publication
Free Conference League Prediction: FC Thun vs Hajduk Split
Our prediction: Hajduk Split to win (2.41)
Three straight wins for Hajduk, two of them against Dinamo Zagreb and Ajax. Thun have won one league game since early September and have conceded 27 in 10.
Thun are at home and Hajduk’s run has mostly been built in Split, which is the case for the draw. I don’t think Thun can keep Hajduk out for 90 minutes: they’ve conceded at least once in every league game listed here, and they had no shot on target at Twente.
At 2.41, I’d back Hajduk to win. It’s the best price on the board for the better side.
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