- 1 Lincoln Red Imps vs FC Twente: a 121st-minute penalty got Lincoln here, Weghorst’s Twente are next
- 2 Lincoln Red Imps: strong at home in Gibraltar, but one goal in three European home games
- 3 FC Twente: 2.75 goals per away game and Weghorst leading the line
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Lincoln Red Imps vs FC Twente
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lincoln Red Imps vs FC Twente: a 121st-minute penalty got Lincoln here, Weghorst’s Twente are next 
Manu Toledano scored a penalty in the 121st minute at Larne on 27 August to put Lincoln Red Imps into the Conference League league phase. They’d lost the first leg 2-0 in Gibraltar, and Kike Gómez and Toledano had scored on 82 and 84 minutes to force extra time.
The reigning Gibraltar champions lost 2-1 at Brann in Bergen on matchday one. They’re 25th in the league-phase table with no points.
FC Twente beat Thun 1-0 on the same night, Ramiz Zerrouki scoring on 65 minutes. That win stretched their unbeaten run to eight in all competitions, six wins and two draws.
The run ended on Sunday. Utrecht won 2-1 in Enschede, Ángel Alarcón scoring twice after Weidmann had given Twente the lead on 28 minutes. They have 17 points from nine Eredivisie games.
Kick-off at the Europa Point Stadium is 20:00 UK time on Thursday 22 October. The clubs have never met.
Bookmakers have Twente anywhere between 1.20 and 1.53 to win, a wide spread for a match like this. I’m more interested in the margin than the result.
Lincoln Red Imps: strong at home in Gibraltar, but one goal in three European home games 
Lincoln’s domestic home record is as strong as you’d expect. Over their last 10 matches they’ve won 75% of their home games, scoring 2.25 and conceding 0.75 per game.
The league results back that up: 4-0 against Europa Point on 4 September, 2-0 against Glacis United in the opener and 2-0 against Europa FC on 10 October. Bernardo Lopes and Pinto scored against Glacis.
European nights at the Europa Point Stadium have been harder going. Omonia drew 1-1 there on 6 August and Larne won 2-0 on 20 August.
The Omonia tie ended with a 1-0 defeat in the return leg, which sent Lincoln into the Conference League route. They then needed extra time and Toledano’s two goals to get past Larne.
That’s one goal in two home European games this season, and Twente are a step up from both of those visitors. Lincoln drew 1-1 at Mons Calpe in the league in September too.
The rest of their league-phase draw is Monaco, Midtjylland, Brann, Hajduk Split and Egnatia. No injuries have been reported for Thursday.
Across their last 10 matches Lincoln have won 60%, scoring 1.80 and conceding 0.80 per game. Their expected goals over the same run are less flattering: 1.34 for and 1.68 against.
They’ve also rotated more than Twente, keeping 62% of their starting XI across the last six games. Against a side from the Eredivisie, that leaves little margin for error at the back.
In Bergen they started with Hankins in goal and captain Torrilla, with Nano, Mandi and Kike Gómez also in the side. Their home expected goals figure over the last 10 sits at 1.52 per game.
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FC Twente: 2.75 goals per away game and Weghorst leading the line 
Twente have scored 2.75 goals per away game across their last 10 matches. They’ve also conceded in every one of those away games, 1.25 per match.
John van den Brom’s side beat ADO Den Haag 2-0 and PSV 3-2 in September. Wout Weghorst, Younes Taha and Marko Pjaca are the main attacking options, with Taha and Pjaca on the bench against Utrecht.
The squad news is mixed. Goalkeeper Lars Unnerstall is out, Max Bruns is doubtful and Stav Lemkin is coming back from an abdominal injury. Thorvaldsen and Ørjasæter have recovered from illness.
Zerrouki was man of the match against Thun and scored from the edge of the box. A Weidmann goal on 25 minutes was ruled out by VAR that night.
Against Thun, van den Brom started Taha behind Weghorst with Weidmann and Zerrouki in midfield. For Utrecht he moved Weidmann forward and brought Hlynsson into the middle, with Taha and Pjaca on the bench.
An Eredivisie game follows three days later, so some rotation is likely. Twente have kept 84% of their starting XI over the last six games, which means fewer changes than most sides make.
Their expected goals over the last 10 games are 2.35 per match for and 1.16 against. Before the Utrecht defeat they’d also drawn 1-1 at Fortuna Sittard and 2-2 at Groningen.
Twente are 13th in the league-phase table with three points. Taking six from the first two games would leave them well placed with the tougher fixtures still to come.
Probable lineup Lincoln Red Imps: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup FC Twente: Not announced at time of publication (XI v Utrecht: Drommel; Van Rooij, Pröpper, Nijstad, Adelgaard; Rots, Zerrouki, Hlynsson; Weidmann, Ørjasæter, Weghorst)
Free Conference League Prediction: Lincoln Red Imps vs FC Twente
Our prediction: FC Twente to win by two or more goals, European handicap -1 (1.57)
Twente’s straight win is too short at most bookmakers to be worth the risk. The margin is where the value is: they’ve averaged 2.75 goals per away game over their last 10, and Lincoln scored once in two home European games this summer.
Lincoln will defend deep at home, and Twente may rotate before Sunday. I’d still expect them to put this away by two, as they did against ADO in September.
I’d back Twente on the -1 handicap at 1.57. A 2-0 or 3-0 is the most likely shape of this one.
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