- 1 FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia: 22 defeats in 29 European group games for the visitors
- 2 FC Nordsjaelland: four without a win, but Farum is still hard to leave with anything
- 3 CSKA Sofia: unbeaten in 11 league games, and goals spread across the squad
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia: 22 defeats in 29 European group games for the visitors 
CSKA Sofia’s 2-1 home defeat to Monaco last Thursday was their 22nd in 29 European group or league-phase matches. Joel Zwarts headed in from a corner on 76 minutes, about two minutes after coming off the bench, and that was all they had to show for it.
At home in Bulgaria they’re a different proposition. CSKA are second in the efbet League, unbeaten after 11 games with eight wins and three draws, 27 scored and nine conceded. Levski lead them by a point with a game in hand.
FC Nordsjaelland come in without a win in four. A 4-1 defeat at Viborg on 20 September was followed by a 0-0 with OB, a 1-1 at Hearts on matchday one and a 3-3 at Lyngby on Saturday.
Their last win was 3-0 at Vatanspor in the Danish cup on 16 September. In the Superliga they’re fourth with 19 points from 11 games, 17 scored and 13 conceded.
Kick-off at Right to Dream Park in Farum is 17:45 UK time on Thursday 22 October. The clubs have never met.
The best price on the home win is 1.53, with the draw around 5.00 and CSKA as long as 6.85. Of all the numbers here, CSKA’s European record is the one I trust most.
FC Nordsjaelland: four without a win, but Farum is still hard to leave with anything 
The away results are what dragged Nordsjaelland’s run down. Viborg scored four, Lyngby three, and in early September they lost 2-0 at FC Copenhagen.
At home it’s been tighter for Nordsjaelland. Brøndby were beaten 3-1 on 30 August and AGF 2-0 on 13 September, and the 0-0 with OB came in Farum too. Across their recent home games they’ve taken 2.33 points per match and conceded 0.33.
The European home record this season reads 6-0 against Gais, 5-0 against Valur and 1-0 against St. Gallen. All three were qualifying ties, but none of those visitors scored.
The September league results show what Nordsjaelland can do on a good day. They drew 2-2 at Midtjylland on 7 September, and Midtjylland are now level on points at the top of the Superliga.
At Tynecastle, substitute Nicklas Røjkjær equalised on 86 minutes with a deflected shot after Hearts had led from the 33rd. Prince Amoako hit the post on 22 minutes and goalkeeper Andreas Hansen made several saves.
Alexander Lind and Hjalte Boe Rasmussen had three league goals each before this month, with Mark Brink on three assists. Peter Villum Berthelsen is a doubt, and the side has been rotating heavily, keeping 47% of the starting XI across the last six matches. Silkeborg away follows on Sunday.
The season totals are better than the recent run for Nordsjaelland. Across 19 games in all competitions they’ve won 11, drawn five and lost three, scoring 38 and conceding 17.
Tobias Salquist and Justin Janssen have been their highest-rated players, and Janssen’s long pass created Amoako’s chance at Hearts. Nordsjaelland are 15th in the league-phase table with one point.
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CSKA Sofia: unbeaten in 11 league games, and goals spread across the squad 
Nobody has beaten CSKA in the Bulgarian league yet. The most recent of their eight wins was 3-2 away at CSKA 1948 on 11 October, and on Saturday they won 2-0 at Nesebar in the cup.
September brought a 4-1 home win over Arda, a 2-0 win at Lokomotiv Sofia and a 4-2 win over Levski in the Super Cup final. The one dropped point that month came in a 1-1 at Lokomotiv Plovdiv on 20 September.
Zwarts leads them with eight domestic goals, and Ioannis Pittas scored three in Europa League qualifying. Jean-Philippe Gbamin, who has more than 50 Ligue 1 appearances, plays at centre-back.
Europe has been a struggle. OFI Crete knocked them out of the Europa League play-off 5-0 on aggregate, and Maccabi Tel Aviv won 3-1 in Sofia on 13 August. Against Monaco they didn’t have a shot on target in the first half.
That was a rare blank in Sofia. Before Monaco, they’d failed to score in only two of their nine home games this season.
No injuries have been reported. CSKA host Ludogorets on Monday, which may shape how many first-choice players start in Farum.
Their away numbers in their recent games are solid: two-thirds of them won, 2.33 points per game and one goal conceded per match. Most of that came against Bulgarian opposition, though.
After matchday one CSKA are 28th of 36 with no points. Panathinaikos away on 5 November is their next European fixture, so a defeat here would leave them with a lot to do.
Probable lineup FC Nordsjaelland: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup CSKA Sofia: Not announced at time of publication
Free Conference League Prediction: FC Nordsjaelland vs CSKA Sofia
Our prediction: FC Nordsjaelland to win (1.53)
Nordsjaelland’s winless run is real, but three of those four games were away from Farum. At home they’ve beaten Brøndby and AGF, and no visitor scored there in three European qualifying ties.
CSKA’s league form is the reason this isn’t shorter. Against that, they’ve lost 22 of 29 European group or league-phase games, went out 5-0 on aggregate to OFI and managed one goal against Monaco at home.
I’d back Nordsjaelland at 1.53. The home record and CSKA’s European numbers point the same way.
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