- 1 Getafe vs Lugano: the Swiss leaders visit a side with three goals in six league games
- 2 Getafe: a home record that holds, an attack that doesn’t, and five players in doubt
- 3 Lugano: 2.25 goals a game on the road and a perfect start in the Super League
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Getafe vs Lugano
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Getafe vs Lugano: the Swiss leaders visit a side with three goals in six league games 
Lugano are top of the Swiss Super League with 28 points from ten games and haven’t lost any of them. Nine wins and a draw have put them six points clear of Young Boys, and last Thursday they added a 3-2 win over Red Star Belgrade to open their Conference League campaign.
That form is the reason this match is closer than the names suggest. Getafe play in a bigger league, but they’re 15th in La Liga with eight points from eight games and a goal difference of minus six, and in their last six league matches they’ve scored three goals.
The Spanish side also needed a late equaliser to avoid defeat on matchday one. Universitatea Craiova went ahead through Al-Hamlawi after 59 minutes in Romania, and Gudelj levelled with nine minutes left to take a 1-1 draw back to Madrid.
The clubs have never met. Kick-off at the Coliseum on Thursday is 17:45 UK time, and Getafe will have played a La Liga match against Rayo Vallecano on Monday night, three days earlier, while Lugano rotated heavily for a cup tie on Saturday.
The prices make Getafe the favourites at around 1.83, with Lugano close to 4.50. I don’t think that reflects the form of the two sides: Lugano have taken 28 points from a possible 30, Getafe eight from 24.
Getafe: a home record that holds, an attack that doesn’t, and five players in doubt 
José Bordalás has built a side that’s hard to beat at the Coliseum. Getafe are unbeaten at home in the league this season, with one win and two draws: 1-1 with Celta, 1-1 with Deportivo and 1-0 against Málaga. In their last eight home matches they’ve conceded 0.88 goals per game.
Over the same eight home games, though, they’ve scored exactly one goal per match, from an expected-goals figure of 0.93, and they’ve had just under 41 per cent of the ball. Away from home they’ve lost 1-0 at Osasuna, 1-0 at Real Betis and 3-0 at Barcelona.
Enes Ünal is the top scorer with two league goals, and he’s one of five players listed as doubtful along with Ramón Terrats, who has a shoulder problem, Andrés García, who came off injured at Barcelona, Iván Azón and Orel Mangala. Christantus Uche and Juanmi are out with knee injuries, and Zaid Romero has a thigh strain that’s expected to keep him out until the end of the month.
That list was compiled before Monday’s game against Rayo Vallecano, which adds another 90 minutes to legs that are already short of cover. Getafe hadn’t beaten Rayo in their previous ten meetings going into it.
The European run so far has been narrow. Getafe reached the league phase by beating Partizan 4-3 on aggregate, winning 3-1 at home and losing 2-1 in Belgrade, and they’ve now drawn their first game in Craiova. Three European matches this season have brought Getafe one win.
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Lugano: 2.25 goals a game on the road and a perfect start in the Super League 
Mattia Croci-Torti’s team have scored 31 league goals in ten games and conceded seven. The latest win was a 4-0 against Luzern on 10 October, with Dos Santos scoring after 12 and 78 minutes, an own goal from Ruben Fernandes in between and Moncada adding a fourth near the end.
Over their last eight away matches Lugano have averaged 2.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded, with an expected-goals figure of 1.76 and 54 per cent possession. In September they won 4-0 at Lausanne, and the only side to take points from them in the league this season, Young Boys, did it with a 2-2 draw in Lugano.
The win over Red Star showed how they react under pressure. Ajeti scored after 25 minutes, Red Star went ahead with goals from Elšnik and Krunić, and Lugano came back in the last six minutes through Moncada and a Grgić penalty, in front of 7,898 at home. Moncada also scored in the 1-1 draw in Tel Aviv that completed a 3-2 aggregate win over Maccabi in the play-off.
Croci-Torti made wholesale changes for Saturday’s Swiss Cup tie at Pully, playing Gebhardt in goal and Behrens up front, and the rotated side still won 4-0. Marques scored twice and Alioski converted a penalty.
Claudio Cassano is out with a knee injury. Carbone and Zanotti were listed as doubts last week but both played on Saturday, Zanotti from the start and Carbone off the bench.
Probable lineup Getafe: Soria; Mojica, Djené, Gudelj, Femenía; Terrats, F. Serrano, M. Martín, Mangala; Satriano, Ünal
Probable lineup Lugano: von Ballmoos; Papadopoulos, Delcroix, Mai, Karimov; Cimignani, Dos Santos, Grgić, Bislimi; Ajeti, Behrens
Free Conference League Prediction: Getafe vs Lugano
Our prediction: Draw or Lugano – Double chance X2 (2.01)
Lugano haven’t lost a league game all season, average more than two goals a game away from home and rotated heavily at the weekend. Getafe have scored three goals in six league matches, have five players in doubt and two out, and will be playing their second match in four days.
Getafe’s home defence is the real obstacle, and I don’t expect many goals. But that cuts both ways: a side that averages one goal a game at home isn’t well placed to win by the margin it would need if Lugano score once, and Lugano have scored 31 goals in ten league games.
At 2.01, I’d take the double chance on Lugano, draw or away win. The form of the Swiss leaders deserves more respect than the price gives it.
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