- 1 Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen: two league leaders, seven years after a 22-penalty shootout
- 2 Crvena Zvezda: 32 scored and four conceded in Serbia, then three conceded in Lugano
- 3 FC Copenhagen: Cornelius back in form after a league defeat and a draw
- 4 Free Conference League Prediction: Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen: two league leaders, seven years after a 22-penalty shootout 
The last time these clubs met, in August 2019, they needed 22 penalties to separate them. Both legs of the Champions League third qualifying round finished 1-1, the second after extra time in Copenhagen, and Red Star went through 7-6 in the shootout when goalkeeper Borjan saved from Jonas Wind.
Seven years on, the setting is the Conference League and both sides arrive as leaders of their domestic leagues. Red Star are top in Serbia with 34 points from 12 games and haven’t lost. Copenhagen lead the Danish Superliga, two points clear of Midtjylland before the weekend.
On matchday one, Copenhagen beat Braga 3-0 at Parken, while Red Star led 2-1 in Lugano with 22 minutes left and lost 3-2, conceding twice in the last seven minutes, the winner a penalty in the 90th minute.
That leaves Copenhagen second in the league-phase table with three points and a goal difference of plus three, and Red Star 23rd with nothing. Kick-off at the Rajko Mitić Stadium, which holds 51,755, is 17:45 UK time on Thursday.
The bookmakers have the hosts slight favourites, at 2.33 against 2.95 for Copenhagen. I think the result is hard to call, and the better question is whether either defence can keep the other out, given what both did last week.
Crvena Zvezda: 32 scored and four conceded in Serbia, then three conceded in Lugano 
Albert Riera’s side have won 11 of their 12 Serbian SuperLiga games and drawn the other, scoring 32 goals and conceding four. They’re six points ahead of Vojvodina, and they beat Partizan 2-1 on 6 September. Partizan are tenth.
The weekend’s 5-1 win over Mladost Lučani spread the goals around. Katai scored on 43 minutes in his first game back after a suspension imposed by the club, then Arnautović, Abu Fani, Bukari and Elšnik added the rest after the break. A week earlier Red Star won 3-0 at Radnički 1923 with goals from Dieng, Gudelj and Arnautović, although Cham and Lukassen both went off injured that day.
In Lugano, Elšnik equalised Ajeti’s opener and Krunić put Red Star ahead with a long-range shot on 68 minutes, but a Gaštarov mistake let Moncada level on 83 and Bađo conceded the penalty that Grgić scored at the end. Riera called the performance fantastic but not perfect and said his team lacked presence in the box.
The squad that played that night was missing several regulars. Lukassen, Bukari and Abu Fani were serving bans carried over from red cards in qualifying, and Katai and Ivanić weren’t in the squad. With the bans served, the first three should be available, although Riera said on Saturday that Lukassen and Loizou were still recovering from knocks.
Arnautović is likely to start up front after scoring in both of the last two league games. The only league blank in Red Star’s recent results was a 0-0 at Radnik Surdulica on 10 September, and the defence that’s conceded four times in 12 matches in Serbia conceded three in one evening in Switzerland.
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FC Copenhagen: Cornelius back in form after a league defeat and a draw 
Bo Svensson’s team had won eight of ten Superliga games before the weekend, with 24 goals scored and ten conceded. The last fortnight has been less convincing: a 2-1 defeat at Midtjylland on 11 October and a 1-1 home draw with AGF on Saturday.
At Midtjylland, Etim and Castillo scored for the hosts, Elyounoussi’s penalty on 49 minutes was the only reply, and Svensson was booked for protesting. Andreas Cornelius was then banned domestically for comments he made after the match, so he missed the AGF game, in which Robert scored on 35 minutes and Janni Serra equalised on 63.
Cornelius’s suspension doesn’t apply in Europe, and that matters. He came off the bench against Braga and scored twice, on 79 and 86 minutes, after Elyounoussi’s 49th-minute opener, his 11th goal of the season. Ramaj made several saves, and Braga had a goal from Ricardo Horta ruled out for offside by VAR. Cornelius also scored the only goal of the derby at Brøndby on 20 September.
Copenhagen came into the league phase through three qualifying rounds, scoring 17 goals and conceding six. Six conceded in six qualifying games, plus three in the last two league matches, is the part of that record Red Star will look at.
Magnus Mattsson is out with a serious knee injury. Mads Emil Madsen returned from illness at the weekend and Rodrigo Huescas was rested to manage his workload, so both should be ready for Thursday.
Probable lineup Crvena Zvezda: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup FC Copenhagen: Not announced at time of publication
Free Conference League Prediction: Crvena Zvezda vs FC Copenhagen
Our prediction: Both teams to score – Yes (1.57)
Copenhagen scored 17 times in six qualifying games and three against Braga, and Elyounoussi and Cornelius are both in form. Red Star conceded three in Lugano, two of them in the last seven minutes, and their back line made the mistakes that cost them the game.
At the other end, Copenhagen have conceded in each of their last two league games and let in six goals in qualifying. Red Star, with Abu Fani and Bukari back from suspension and Arnautović scoring regularly, have the attacking players to punish that at home. Their own domestic defensive record is excellent, but the Serbian league hasn’t tested them the way Lugano did.
Both previous meetings ended 1-1, and I’d expect goals at both ends again. Both teams to score at 1.57 is my pick.
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