- 1 Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica: 4-0 on goals for the hosts, 6-1 for the visitors
- 2 Omonia Nicosia: four clean sheets in their last five games under Henning Berg
- 3 Benfica: one defeat in five and Pavlidis back among the goals
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica: 4-0 on goals for the hosts, 6-1 for the visitors 
Omonia have played two Europa League games this season and haven’t conceded in either. They beat Celta Vigo 1-0 in Nicosia on 16 September with an 88th-minute winner from Jure Balkovec, then won 3-0 in Celje last Thursday, and they’re sixth in the league phase on six points with a 4-0 goal record.
Benfica sit three places higher on the same points. They won 2-0 at AC Milan on matchday one, Lukébakio scoring on 16 minutes and Kaminski on 53, and beat Celtic 4-1 in Lisbon on 15 October.
Thursday’s game is at the GSP Stadium in Nicosia, with kick-off at 8pm UK time. We found no previous competitive meeting between the two clubs.
The match prices put Benfica well clear: 1.40 for the away win, 4.50 for the draw and 6.50 for Omonia. Over 2.5 goals is 1.62, and both teams to score is 1.80 for yes and 1.95 for no.
Henning Berg’s side are third in the Cypriot league, unbeaten after five games with a goal difference of plus nine. Marco Silva’s Benfica are second in Portugal, five points behind Porto, and have lost once in their last five matches in all competitions.
At 1.40 the away win doesn’t interest us. The question we’d rather answer is whether Omonia score at all against a side that has conceded once in two European games, and we don’t think they will.
Omonia Nicosia: four clean sheets in their last five games under Henning Berg 
Omonia’s last five competitive results read 3-0 at Celje, 3-0 at Karmiotissa, 4-1 at home to Krasava Ypsonas, 1-0 against Celta and 0-0 with Apollon Limassol. The Krasava game is the only one of those in which they conceded.
The win in Celje was the most complete of their European nights. Montnor scored on 16 minutes, Tankovic on 59 and Coulibaly on 84, and a Loïs Diony goal after nine minutes was ruled out by VAR for handball.
Diony has six goals in 12 appearances this season. In Celje he played through the middle of a front three with Montnor and Tankovic, while Fabiano kept goal behind Duverne, Satka, Coulibaly and Balkovec.
The Celta game was far tighter. Celta had a goal disallowed for offside on 70 minutes, and Balkovec’s winner arrived only two minutes from the end.
Ioannis Kousoulos, Carel Eiting and Fotis Kitsos were all injured before the trip to Slovenia, and we haven’t been able to confirm that any of them is back in training.
Omonia also had to come from behind just to reach this stage. They lost 1-0 at Sint-Truiden on 20 August in the first leg of their qualifier and won the return 4-2 in Nicosia a week later.
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Benfica: one defeat in five and Pavlidis back among the goals 
Benfica’s only defeat in their last five matches came at Porto on 20 September, 3-1. Around it they beat Gil Vicente 3-1, Milan 2-0, Vitória Guimarães 2-0 and Celtic 4-1.
Vangelis Pavlidis came off the bench against Celtic and scored on 89 minutes. It ended a run of seven games without a goal and took him to 15 goals and four assists in 15 matches in all competitions, eight of them in the league.
Jhon Durán started up front that night and scored twice, the first from the penalty spot after five minutes. Prestianni has five league goals this season, and Lukébakio scored the opener in Milan.
Enzo Barrenechea won’t play. The midfielder has a knee injury and isn’t expected back until November, and Jakub Kaminski, who scored at San Siro, was carrying a muscle problem before the Celtic game.
Silva took over in June. The side that beat Celtic had Trubin in goal, Bah, Tomás Araújo, Lenglet and Dahl in defence, Palhinha and Aursnes in midfield, and Lukébakio, Sudakov and Prestianni behind Durán.
In eight Portuguese league games Benfica have a goal difference of plus 17, and they’ve let in one goal in two Europa League matches.
Probable lineup Omonia Nicosia: Fabiano; Duverne, Satka, Coulibaly, Balkovec; Andreou, Maric, Ewandro; Montnor, Tankovic, Diony
Probable lineup Benfica: Trubin; Bah, Tomás Araújo, Lenglet, Dahl; Palhinha, Aursnes; Lukébakio, Sudakov, Prestianni; J. Durán
Free Europa League Prediction: Omonia Nicosia vs Benfica
Our prediction: Both teams to score: No (1.95)
We’re backing at least one side to finish without a goal, at 1.95. Benfica have conceded once in two European games, against Celtic, and their league goal difference after eight matches is plus 17. Omonia’s four European goals came against Celta, who are still pointless, and a Celje side that lost 3-0 at home.
Omonia’s own defensive record is the main risk to the pick, and it works both ways. Four clean sheets in five games make a Benfica shut-out less likely, but that run came against domestic opposition and two sides currently in the bottom half of the Europa League table. A 1-0 or 2-0 Benfica win also lands the bet.
Benfica have scored in every game we’ve looked at in their last five and have Pavlidis, Durán and Prestianni in form. If one side keeps a clean sheet in Nicosia, we expect it to be the visitors, and BTTS No at 1.95 is the pick.
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