- 1 OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen: Terrier out until December, nine goals against OFI in a week
- 2 OFI Crete: three defeats in a row since the Hoffenheim win
- 3 Bayer Leverkusen: five straight wins without Terrier, Kofane and Ben Seghir
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen: Terrier out until December, nine goals against OFI in a week 
Martin Terrier lasted 18 minutes in Poznan last Thursday before his left hamstring went. He’s out until December, and Bayer Leverkusen travel to Heraklion without him, without Christian Kofane and without Eliesse Ben Seghir, who has had a muscle problem since 10 October.
It hasn’t slowed them down. Leverkusen have won five in a row in all competitions, including 4-0 at Lech Poznan and 2-1 at home to Freiburg on Saturday, and they’re second in the Europa League table on six points with a goal difference of plus six.
OFI Crete are heading the other way. They’ve lost three straight: 3-0 at AEK on 10 October, 2-1 at Rennes on 15 October and 4-3 at Kalamata on Saturday.
The game is at the Pankritio Stadium in Heraklion, the ground where OFI beat Hoffenheim 2-0 on matchday one. Kick-off is 5:45pm UK time, and as far as we can find this is the first competitive meeting between the clubs.
Leverkusen are 1.25 to win, with the draw at 6.00 and OFI at 8.50. Over 2.5 goals is 1.36, over 3.5 is 1.91, and Leverkusen to win to nil is 2.25.
We don’t see a price worth taking in the result market. The goal line is where we’d look, with OFI conceding nine times in three games and Leverkusen scoring ten in their last three.
OFI Crete: three defeats in a row since the Hoffenheim win 
Cantalapiedra opened the scoring after half an hour against Hoffenheim on 17 September, and Kanellopoulos headed in a corner late on to make it 2-0. Goalkeeper Christogeorgos was named man of the match.
OFI haven’t won since. Asteras Tripolis drew 2-2 in Heraklion three days later, and the three defeats that followed brought nine goals against.
In Rennes, Fountas put them ahead on ten minutes before Nagida equalised on 76 and Aït Boudlal won it in the final minute. Fountas has three goals in four UEFA matches this season, a count that includes the play-off against CSKA Sofia, which OFI won 3-0 at home and 2-0 away.
They’re seventh in the Greek Super League with ten points from seven games and a goal difference of zero. Kodro and Nuss have three league goals each, and OFI have scored in four of their last five matches, the 3-0 defeat at AEK being the exception.
Christos Kontis, in charge for almost a year, is short of several players. Christos Sielis is coming back from a thigh injury, Aaron Iseka was ruled out for a few weeks with a thigh problem before the Rennes game, and Nikos Marinakis hasn’t played this season.
Recent OFI line-ups have used three centre-backs, with Poungouras and Krizmanic in the middle and Dickmann and Athanasiou as wing-backs.
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Bayer Leverkusen: five straight wins without Terrier, Kofane and Ben Seghir 
Patrik Schick scored two penalties in Poznan, on 29 and 40 minutes, with Tillman’s goal on 32 between them, and Maza added a fourth late on. It was Leverkusen’s eighth consecutive win in the group or league phase of this competition.
On Saturday Freiburg were beaten 2-1 at the BayArena. Scherhant scored on 14 minutes, Maza on 19 and Schick on 76.
That left Carles Martínez’s side fourth in the Bundesliga with 13 points from six games: four wins, a draw and a defeat. Their 4-3 win at Mainz on 10 October is the only game of the current five-match run in which they’ve conceded more than once.
In Europe they’ve kept two clean sheets from two, beating Celje 2-0 on 16 September before the win in Poland. Schick has two Europa League goals and Tillman one.
Nathan Tella is back from a muscle problem. With Terrier and Kofane both out, we’d expect Schick to lead the line again.
Leverkusen go to Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on 25 October, three days after this game, and some changes in midfield wouldn’t surprise us.
Probable lineup OFI Crete: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Bayer Leverkusen: Not announced at time of publication
Free Europa League Prediction: OFI Crete vs Bayer Leverkusen
Our prediction: Over 3.5 goals (1.91)
We’re taking four or more goals at 1.91. Leverkusen have scored 2, 4 and 4 in their last three games, and OFI have let in 3, 2 and 4 in theirs. Leverkusen scored four in Poznan and four at Mainz, and OFI have conceded nine times in the eight days between 10 and 18 October.
Leverkusen’s two European clean sheets are the obvious risk, and a 2-0 or 3-0 away win would beat us. OFI have scored in four of their last five games, though, including three at Kalamata and one in Rennes, and they scored twice at home against Hoffenheim.
The bookmakers have over 2.5 goals at 1.36, which tells us they expect plenty. We’d rather take the extra goal at 1.91 than lay 1.25 on the away win.
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