- 1 Lech Poznan vs Sunderland: six goals on Sunday, none in Europe
- 2 Lech Poznan: three goals a game at home, eight conceded in Europe
- 3 Sunderland: 19th in the league, perfect in Europe
- 4 Free Europa League Prediction: Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lech Poznan vs Sunderland: six goals on Sunday, none in Europe 
Pablo Rodriguez was dropped from Lech Poznan’s starting XI against Bayer Leverkusen last Thursday for disciplinary reasons. Three days later he scored twice in a 6-1 win over Korona Kielce, in the sixth minute and in first-half stoppage time.
Lech are second in the Ekstraklasa, a point behind leaders Gornik Zabrze with a game in hand, and they’ve scored 15 goals in their last three league games. In the Europa League they’ve lost 4-0 at Crystal Palace and 4-0 at home to Leverkusen, eight conceded and none scored.
Sunderland are heading the other way in the league. Regis Le Bris’ side lost 2-0 at Bournemouth on Sunday after conceding inside the first six minutes, and they’re 19th in the Premier League with four points from seven games.
Sunderland beat AZ Alkmaar 1-0 at the Stadium of Light on the opening night and won 2-1 at Torreense last week, so they have six points from six.
Kick-off at the Enea Stadion is 5:45pm UK time on Thursday. As far as the records show, the clubs have never met.
Both teams play again on Sunday, Lech away at Legia Warsaw and Sunderland at home to Leeds, so expect changes on both sides. The prices make Sunderland clear favourites at 1.57, with Lech at 5.00. For a side scoring this freely at home, I think that’s too wide.
Lech Poznan: three goals a game at home, eight conceded in Europe 
Niels Frederiksen’s side won those three league games 5-1 against Radomiak on 20 September, 4-1 at Slask Wroclaw on 10 October and 6-1 against Korona on Sunday. Across their last ten matches they average three goals a game at home.
Sayyadmanesh had five in the league before the weekend, and Rodriguez and Walemark both went into Sunday on four. Walemark opened the scoring after four minutes, Mikael Ishak got two and Agnero added the sixth.
Sayyadmanesh has a groin injury and isn’t expected back until early November. Monka, Douglas, Joao Moutinho and Gholizadeh are also out, and Gumny is a doubt with a muscle problem.
The XI against Korona was Lis; Pereira, Skrzypczak, Yegbe, Gurgul; Walemark, Murawski, Rodriguez, Kozubal, Palma; Ishak. With Legia away on Sunday, Frederiksen may not pick it again in full.
Lech have lost two from two by an aggregate of 8-0, against a Premier League side and the Bundesliga’s Leverkusen. Rodriguez didn’t start the second of those games, and Sayyadmanesh’s injury has taken away their top league scorer since.
At home in the league, though, they’ve won 80% of their recent games, and their matches over the last ten have averaged 4.2 goals.
Ishak’s two goals against Korona came either side of half-time, in the 22nd and 54th minutes, and he leads a line that has scored at least four times in each of its last three league games.
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Sunderland: 19th in the league, perfect in Europe 
Sunderland have lost four of their last five Premier League games and haven’t scored in either of the last two, a 2-0 home defeat by Brighton on 10 October and Sunday’s loss at the Vitality.
In Europe the goals have come from different places. Fee, Sadiki and Ahoka have scored one each in the two wins.
Brian Brobbey is their top league scorer with three, and Sunderland have conceded eight more league goals than they’ve scored. Wilson Isidor, who has one, missed the trip to Torreense with a knock and was a doubt again at the weekend. Kroupi hasn’t played this season and isn’t expected back before November.
At the Vitality, Bournemouth scored early and again three minutes into the second half, and Sunderland never recovered from the opening goal.
Ballard and Meunier are both out with hamstring injuries until late October, and Mundle has a knee problem that will keep him out until January.
Away from home Sunderland have been easy to score against. Over their last ten matches they’ve conceded 2.25 goals per away game and won a quarter of them.
Both European wins came by a single goal, 1-0 against AZ and 2-1 in Torreense, and Sunderland conceded in the second of them.
Probable lineup Lech Poznan: Lis; Pereira, Skrzypczak, Yegbe, Gurgul; Walemark, Murawski, Rodriguez, Kozubal, Palma; Ishak
Probable lineup Sunderland: Not announced at time of publication
Free Europa League Prediction: Lech Poznan vs Sunderland
Our prediction: Both teams to score (1.91)
I’d back both teams to score at 1.91. Lech are scoring three a game at home in the league, Sunderland concede more than two per away game, and Sunderland have scored in both of their European matches.
The obvious doubt is Lech’s European record: eight conceded, nothing scored. Those two defeats came against Palace and Leverkusen, though, and a Sunderland side that hasn’t scored in its last two league games and is likely to rotate isn’t the same proposition.
The total goals market points the same way. Over 2.5 is around 1.80 to 1.95 depending on the bookmaker, and Lech’s recent matches have averaged more than four goals. Both teams to score at 1.91 is the pick.
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