- 1 Lyon vs Nice: a tight home defence against a side that hasn’t scored on the road
- 2 Lyon: one goal or fewer conceded in every Ligue 1 home game so far
- 3 Nice: two straight wins, but a side that’s struggled to create chances
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lyon vs Nice
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lyon vs Nice: a tight home defence against a side that hasn’t scored on the road 
Nice haven’t scored a single away goal in Ligue 1 this season. That’s the starting point for Sunday night’s game at the Groupama Stadium, kick-off 20:45 Paris time.
Lyon arrive with something to fix. Last week’s 2-1 defeat at Lens was their first league loss of the campaign, and it dropped Paulo Fonseca’s side to fourth on 11 points. It was also the first time all season they’d started slowly: the goal they conceded in the 36th minute was the earliest they’d let in so far in the league.
Europe has been kinder. Lyon have won both of their Europa League games, the latest a 3-2 win over Crystal Palace on Thursday, so the mood isn’t bad. The concern is the short turnaround from Thursday to Sunday.
Nice, meanwhile, have turned a corner under Olivier Pantaloni. Back-to-back wins over Lille and Strasbourg lifted them from the drop zone to ninth on eight points, four clear of the automatic relegation places.
So which trend wins out? Lyon’s home record against Nice is strong: they’ve won the last three meetings at this ground and are unbeaten in five at home against them, including a 2-0 win in February. Nice’s last league win in Lyon came back in May 2021. The gap is real.
Lyon: one goal or fewer conceded in every Ligue 1 home game so far 
Eleven goals scored, four conceded. Lyon’s league numbers through six games are the profile of a side that knows what it’s about, and the Groupama Stadium has been the foundation. They haven’t let in more than one goal in any home league game this season.
The results reflect that. A 3-1 win over Auxerre and a 4-0 thrashing of Rennes came at home, with a 1-1 draw against Le Havre the only blemish. Away from home they won 2-0 at Toulouse and drew 0-0 at Paris FC before the setback at Lens.
Fonseca won’t be panicking. A defeat on Sunday would match his longest league losing run of the year, though, and he’s already had two separate back-to-back losses in 2026. That’s the pressure point.
The squad’s in decent shape going forward. Ernest Nuamah, Corentin Tolisso and Pavel Sulc all scored against Palace, and Khalis Merah struck late at Lens. Keito Nakamura, who provided two assists on Thursday, is pushing for his first Ligue 1 start for his new club. Plenty of options.
At the back, Moussa Niakhate is likely to miss out with a hamstring strain and Mohamed Ouedraogo is dealing with a knee injury. Those absences matter, and Lyon did concede twice at home to Palace in midweek. But against an attack this blunt, the defence shouldn’t be stretched too often.
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Nice: two straight wins, but a side that’s struggled to create chances 
Pantaloni’s start in charge was rough. A 0-0 draw with Lorient, a 3-0 hammering at Paris FC, a 1-1 draw with Le Mans and a 1-0 defeat at Auxerre left Nice in the bottom three and fans asking questions.
Then came the turnaround. A 2-1 win over Lille, followed by another 2-1 against Strasbourg last Sunday, when Jonathan Clauss scored the winner nine minutes from time. Two wins on the bounce, both at the Allianz Riviera. That’s the catch.
On the road, the numbers don’t lie. Nice haven’t won a Ligue 1 away game since March of last season, a 2-0 win at Angers, and they’re still waiting for a first away league goal this term. Across their last five away matches, the goals read 2-7. Their expected goals output is also among the lowest in the division, so this isn’t just bad finishing: they’re not creating enough.
Injuries don’t help. Antoine Mendy and Laurent Abergel are both out with cruciate ligament damage, and Moise Bombito is still recovering from a lower-leg problem. Morgan Sanson and Salis Abdul Samed are also doubts with knocks, which thins out the midfield options.
A third straight league win would match Nice’s best run from last season. It’d be a massive psychological boost, too. But doing it here, against this defence, with this attack? Hard to see.
Probable lineup Lyon: Greif; Athekame, Bacher, Kluivert, Abner; Tessmann, Morton; Nuamah, Sulc, Nakamura; Openda
Probable lineup Nice: Diouf; Abdelmonem, Ndayishimiye, Mandza; Clauss, Camara, Witsel, Nkounkou; Hein, Diop; Wahi
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Lyon vs Nice
Our prediction: Lyon to win
Lyon have conceded one goal or fewer in every home league game, and Nice have scored zero league goals away from home. That combination is the heart of this pick. The visitors need to find something they simply haven’t shown on the road all season.
Midweek fatigue is the one thing that gives us pause, with Lyon playing on Thursday. But Fonseca has the depth to rotate, and the home crowd should be a factor after the Lens defeat. Lyon also have the head-to-head edge at this ground, unbeaten in five home meetings with Nice.
Nice’s recent revival is genuine, but it’s been built entirely at home. We’re backing Lyon to bounce back and take the three points. Check the price with your bookmaker before kick-off.
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