- 1 Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen: a perfect home run meets a perfect European run
- 2 Lech Poznan: 19 goals in six home wins, but a midfield missing its anchor
- 3 Bayer Leverkusen: four wins from five since the Elversberg shock, and goals from everywhere
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen: a perfect home run meets a perfect European run 
Lech Poznan have won their last six home matches in all competitions, scoring 19 goals and keeping four clean sheets along the way. Bayer Leverkusen have won their last seven matches in the league phase or group stage of this competition. Both streaks can’t survive Thursday night.
The setting is the Stadion Poznan, kick-off at 18:45 Paris time, for matchday two of the Europa League league phase. The two clubs arrive from opposite ends of the opening round.
Lech were taken apart 4-0 at Crystal Palace on matchday one. Three goals conceded before the break, then a red card for Radoslaw Murawski late on. Leverkusen, meanwhile, dealt with NK Celje 2-0 at the BayArena without much fuss.
So which version of Lech turns up? The one that collapsed in London, or the one that has just put four past Slask and five past Radomiak Radom in the Ekstraklasa? The data paints a specific picture here: Lech are a very different side in front of their own crowd, but they haven’t faced anything close to this level at home this season.
That’s the gap. Domestic dominance at the Stadion Poznan is one thing. A Bundesliga side that has won four of its last five, with a draw in the other, is something else entirely.
Leverkusen’s broader European record makes for uncomfortable reading from a Polish perspective: 15 wins from their last 17 matches at this stage of the competition. The numbers don’t lie.
Lech Poznan: 19 goals in six home wins, but a midfield missing its anchor 
Niels Frederiksen’s side fought through three qualifying rounds to get here. The reward was a night at Selhurst Park that doesn’t bear close inspection.
The domestic picture is far healthier. A 5-1 demolition of Radomiak Radom on 20 September was followed by Saturday’s 4-1 win at Slask Wroclaw. Two wins on the bounce, nine goals scored. That’s a side with confidence going forward.
At home, the pattern has been even clearer. Six straight wins at the Stadion Poznan, 19 goals, four clean sheets. Break down the numbers and you see a team that dictates games on its own pitch.
The problem is the treatment room. Left-back Joao Moutinho is out with a broken foot, centre-back Alex Douglas is sidelined again with a rib injury, and right winger Ali Gholizadeh is still working back from a cruciate ligament tear. Murawski serves his suspension after that red card in London. That’s four players gone, two of them from the back line.
Without Murawski, the shield in front of the defence thins out. Antoni Kozubal and Pablo Rodriguez are expected to pair up in central midfield, with Mateusz Skrzypczak and Wojciech Monka at centre-back. Can that unit cope with Leverkusen’s movement between the lines? It’s a big ask.
Lech can ill afford another early collapse.
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Bayer Leverkusen: four wins from five since the Elversberg shock, and goals from everywhere 
The season started badly. A 3-2 defeat at Elversberg on the opening weekend raised questions about Carles Martinez Novell’s side. Those questions have been answered since.
A 4-0 win over Union Berlin, a 2-2 draw at Augsburg, then back-to-back 2-0 wins against Celje and RB Leipzig. Saturday brought a wild 4-3 win at Mainz with four different scorers. That’s the detail that matters: the goals aren’t coming from one source.
Defensively, the Mainz game was untidy. Three conceded away from home isn’t what you want before a European trip. But two clean sheets in the previous two outings suggest that was more of a blip than a trend.
The absentee list isn’t short either. Eliesse Ben Seghir has a muscle problem, Montrell Culbreath a foot injury, and right-back Guela Doue is out with a calf issue. Striker Christian Kofane picked up a thigh injury on international duty and is expected to miss several weeks. Jarell Quansah looks set to fill in at right-back.
Even so, the attacking group remains dangerous. Patrik Schick should lead the line, supported by Moussa Diaby and Afonso Moreira out wide, with Ibrahim Maza in the number 10 role and Robert Andrich and Aleix Garcia in the double pivot. That’s a lot of quality for a Lech midfield missing its most experienced holder.
Leverkusen’s record in this phase of European football is the clearest signal here. Seven straight wins. It isn’t a coincidence.
Probable lineup Lech Poznan: Lis; Pereira, Skrzypczak, Monka, Gurgul; Walemark, Kozubal, Rodriguez, Palma; Ishak, Jagiello
Probable lineup Bayer Leverkusen: Flekken; Quansah, Tapsoba, Medina, Gutierrez; Andrich, Garcia; Diaby, Maza, Moreira; Schick
Free Football Prediction: Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen
Our prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win (odds around 1.62)
The home record deserves respect, and Lech will create chances at the Stadion Poznan. But six home wins against Ekstraklasa opposition don’t translate directly to a night against a side that’s won 15 of its last 17 matches at this stage in Europe. The gulf in squad depth shows up in every comparison.
Lech’s absences hit the most sensitive area of the pitch: the defensive line and the screen in front of it. Against a Leverkusen attack that just scored four at Mainz with four different scorers, that’s a structural weakness rather than a cosmetic one.
Leverkusen’s own injuries are real but they’re spread across positions with ready replacements. At around 1.62, the away win is the logical conclusion of the analysis. Goals at both ends wouldn’t be a surprise either, given Lech’s scoring form at home and Leverkusen’s leakiness at Mainz.
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