- 1 Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: four straight wins since Anfield against a side that only travels well in Europe
- 2 Atletico Madrid: twelve goals in five, with Grimaldo driving the left side
- 3 Manchester United: third in the league phase, but one domestic win in sixt tells a different story
- 4 Free Champions League Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United: four straight wins since Anfield against a side that only travels well in Europe 
Eleven goals in their last five matches. That’s Atletico Madrid’s output since the 2-1 defeat at Liverpool on matchday one, and it’s almost three times Manchester United’s tally of four over the same stretch. The table says United are third and Atletico are down in the twenties. The form says something very different.
Kick-off at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano is 21:00 Paris time on Tuesday. It’s the first competitive meeting between these clubs in this era, although United won a pre-season friendly 2-1 just two months ago.
Don’t read much into that friendly. Atletico have won four league games in a row since Anfield, the latest a 2-1 win at Alaves on Saturday, and the run before the international break included a 2-1 derby win over Real Madrid.
United’s 4-0 over Sabah looks good on paper. Look past it and the domestic picture makes uncomfortable reading: draws with Fulham and Tottenham, defeats to Manchester City and Brighton. One win in five outside the Champions League.
The bookmakers price Atletico at 2.15, the draw at 3.80 and United at 2.90. That’s a fair reflection of a real but not overwhelming home edge. Is it big enough to back? The data suggests yes.
Atletico Madrid: twelve goals in five, with Grimaldo driving the left side 
The Liverpool defeat wasn’t a bad performance. Marcos Llorente scored with his only shot on target, and Julian Alvarez put three efforts on target and set up a goal. Atletico simply didn’t get the result their numbers deserved.
What’s followed has been sharp. Alejandro Grimaldo has three goals and an assist across the last five games, and he’s taking the free kicks too. Over the same period, Atletico have completed around 88% of their passes and committed 50 fouls. That’s a team pressing high and winning it back early.
Diego Simeone’s side also lead the set-piece count. Grimaldo and Alex Baena feeding balls into the box is the most obvious way this game swings. Can United’s double pivot cope with that for 90 minutes? It hasn’t coped with much lately.
Team news is clean. No injuries or suspensions are reported on the home side, and the squad is described as close to complete. Oblak is in goal, Cristian Romero anchors the back line and Alvarez should lead the attack.
Home European nights at the Metropolitano rarely go quietly. A side that’s just won four straight and needs points after a matchday-one loss tends to come out hard.
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Manchester United: third in the league phase, but one domestic win in sixt tells a different story 
Four different scorers against Sabah: Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha, Lisandro Martinez and Benjamin Sesko. Fernandes also created four chances that night. It’s the result that has United sitting third in the league phase.
Saturday was flatter. A 1-1 draw with Tottenham at Old Trafford continued a domestic run that doesn’t bear close inspection. Losses to Manchester City and Brighton exposed a defence that loses its structure quickly away from European nights.
Bryan Mbeumo has been the brightest spark, with a goal and the joint-highest shot count in the squad. His movement against a high Atletico line is United’s best route to goal. Cunha has chipped in with a goal and an assist in his last four appearances.
Fitness reports conflict. Some reports have Michael Carrick with a full group, others describe United as hit hard by injuries. Senne Lammens should keep his place in goal either way, with Kobbie Mainoo and Youri Tielemans screening the back four.
United will create chances. That’s not the issue. The issue is whether this back line holds up against a team in Atletico’s current rhythm, in that stadium. The recent evidence says it won’t.
Probable lineup Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Hancko, Romero, Pubill; G. Simeone, Baena, Koke, Barrios, Llorente; Lee Kang-In, Alvarez
Probable lineup Manchester United: Lammens; Mazraoui, Yoro, Martinez, Dorgu; Mainoo, Tielemans; Mbeumo, Fernandes, Cunha; Sesko
Free Champions League Prediction: Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
Our prediction: Atletico Madrid to win (1.8)
Atletico’s eleven goals in five against United’s four is the clearest gap in this fixture. Add home advantage, a full squad and a team needing points after the Anfield defeat, and the case builds quickly for the hosts.
United’s European record so far rests on one home win against Sabah. Their domestic form, with one win in five, is a far better guide to how they’ll handle a hostile away night against an aggressive press.
At 2.15, the home win offers a solid return on the most likely outcome. We expect a 2-1 type of game, with United scoring but Atletico finishing the stronger side.
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