- 1 Derby County vs Wrexham: the worst home record in the Championship meets a side chasing the top eight
- 2 Derby County: five defenders out and seven goals in eight games
- 3 Wrexham: wild swings on the road, but Moore is back and fit to lead the line
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Derby County vs Wrexham
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Derby County vs Wrexham: the worst home record in the Championship meets a side chasing the top eight 
One point from four home games. Three straight defeats at Pride Park. Derby County have the worst home record in the Championship, and Wrexham walk in on Saturday, kick-off 16:00 Paris time, knowing it.
John Eustace’s side are 22nd, two points from safety, with one win from eight league games. The goals have dried up too. Seven scored all season, joint-lowest in the division alongside Lincoln, Charlton and Watford.
The only bit of good news came at Turf Moor before the international break. Mohammed Fuseini, a deadline-day arrival after his move to Birmingham collapsed, hit a 93rd-minute equaliser in a 1-1 draw with Burnley on 19 September. It stopped a run of three straight defeats, six goals conceded and one scored. It didn’t fix much else.
Wrexham come in from the other direction. Phil Parkinson’s side beat Southampton 2-1 at the Racecourse last time out, Kieffer Moore getting on the scoresheet. They’re 14th, three points off the top eight, and chasing back-to-back league wins for the first time since April.
There’s history here too. Wrexham finished one place and two points above Derby last season, and they won at Pride Park in January thanks to goals from Sam Smith and Matty James.
Is this the week Derby finally turn their home form around? With this injury list, it’s hard to see it.
Derby County: five defenders out and seven goals in eight games 
Derby’s injury problems got worse over the break, not better. Charlie Taylor picked up a hamstring injury and faces about a month out. Derry Murkin, the usual first-choice option at full-back, is unavailable. So is veteran Craig Forsyth. That’s three full-backs gone before you even reach the centre of defence.
And then you reach the centre of defence. Matt Clarke and Eiran Cashin are both missing with calf problems.
Eustace is patching together a back line from whatever’s left. That makes for uncomfortable reading against a side with Moore’s physical presence up top.
The attack isn’t much healthier. Patrick Agyemang remains sidelined, and without him Derby have managed seven league goals all season. The home results show it: 0-3 against Swansea, 0-1 against West Brom, 1-2 against Birmingham. They haven’t scored more than once at Pride Park in any of those three defeats.
The one away win, a 2-0 at Portsmouth, now feels like a long time ago. Since then it’s been West Ham 3-0, then those two home losses, then the late point at Burnley.
Fuseini’s goal kept spirits up. One strike doesn’t hide the bigger picture, though. Derby are short of bodies, short of goals and short of home points.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Wrexham: wild swings on the road, but Moore is back and fit to lead the line 
Wrexham’s away form is all over the place. A 3-0 win at Millwall. A 0-0 at Swansea. Then a 6-0 hammering at West Ham on 11 September that doesn’t bear close inspection. Two out of three without defeat, and one afternoon they’ll want to forget.
The response was decent. Back at the Racecourse, they beat Southampton 2-1 and Moore scored. The Wales striker comes into this one fresh after limited minutes for his country in the Nations League over the past fortnight.
Parkinson recruited for the Championship again this summer, adding proven second-tier players including Callum O’Hare from Sheffield United. O’Hare and Windass should operate behind Moore, with Matty James and Whiteman holding the middle of the park.
The one fitness blow concerns Liberato Cacace, who’s suffered another calf problem and is set to see a specialist in London. Ekomie is pencilled in on the left side.
The bigger point is this. Wrexham have a proper focal point in Moore, and Derby, with five defenders unavailable, will be fielding a makeshift back line against him. That’s a mismatch Parkinson will happily target.
The win at Pride Park in January wasn’t a fluke. Wrexham were the better side then. They look the better side now.
Probable lineup Derby County: Vickers; Ward, Langas, Sanderson, Blackett-Taylor; Mowatt, Ozoh, Fuseini, Clark, Szmodics; Morris
Probable lineup Wrexham: Patterson; Vyner, Hyam, Doyle; Kabore, James, Whiteman, Ekomie; Windass, O’Hare; Moore
Free Football Prediction: Derby County vs Wrexham
Our prediction: Wrexham Draw No Bet (odds 1.83)
Every home number for Derby points one way. One point from four games at Pride Park, three straight home defeats, seven league goals all season, and now five defenders unavailable, Clarke and Cashin among them. That’s not a side you back at home against opposition looking for a second straight win.
Wrexham bring Moore back into a team that’s lost just once in its last three away league trips, and they already won on this ground in January. The road form has been patchy, which is why we’re taking the draw out of the equation rather than backing the straight away win.
Draw No Bet on Wrexham at 1.83 gives the edge where it belongs. If Derby scrape another late point, the stake comes back. If the visitors do what the form suggests, it pays.
in your pocket.
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