- 1 Lecce vs Bologna: a leaky home side against a team that can’t buy a win
- 2 Lecce: ten goals shipped in five games and a defence that can’t hold a line
- 3 Bologna: zero away goals, a new coach, and a squad that’s better than its table
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Lecce vs Bologna
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lecce vs Bologna: a leaky home side against a team that can’t buy a win 
Two points from five games. That’s Bologna. Eighteenth in Serie A, no league win yet, and a head coach already sacked before the first international break was over.
Lecce aren’t sitting pretty either. Two wins, three defeats, six points and 12th place. The last thing they saw before the break was a 3-0 hiding at San Siro against Milan, and that one stung.
The game kicks off on Sunday 11 October at 15:00 Paris time at the Stadio Via del Mare, Matchday 6. Raffaele Palladino takes Bologna on the road for the first time since replacing Domenico Tedesco, and his record against Lecce is the first thing worth flagging: three wins, three draws and a single defeat across his meetings with the Salento club. That isn’t nothing.
Here’s the bottom line. Lecce have conceded ten goals in five league games, two a match on average. Bologna have scored three all season. One of those numbers has to give.
The market has made its call already. Bologna are around 1.94 to win, the draw sits near 3.35, and Lecce drift out to almost 4.00 at home. Is that respect for Bologna’s squad or a verdict on Lecce’s defence? Bit of both.
Lecce: ten goals shipped in five games and a defence that can’t hold a line 
Ten conceded in five. Start there, because everything else about Lecce flows from it. Eusebio Di Francesco has pushed this side into a more attacking shape this season, and the price for that ambition has been paid at the back every single week.
The home record is split down the middle. They beat Monza at the Via del Mare, then lost to Roma on the same pitch. Fine against a promoted side, exposed against a good one. Bologna sit somewhere in between, which makes this a proper test of where Lecce actually are.
Five goals scored. Not terrible, not good. The attack runs through the front three of Pierotti, Stulic and Monteiro, and Stulic is back after a fitness scare. Willem Geubbels is only half-fit, and Medon Berisha is a doubt too.
The Milan defeat makes for uncomfortable reading. Three goals conceded, nothing created, no response. Di Francesco’s teams can look lively going forward, but when they lose control of midfield they get carved open. It happened at San Siro and it doesn’t bear close inspection.
Di Francesco knows relegation scraps better than most. He went down with Frosinone and then Venezia before arriving in Salento last summer. He’ll want points from games like this one, because the fixtures against the top half won’t get easier from here.
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Bologna: zero away goals, a new coach, and a squad that’s better than its table 
Two away games. Two defeats. Zero goals scored. Bologna lost narrowly at Atalanta and Napoli, and neither trip produced a single goal. That’s the stat Palladino has to fix first.
The rest of the picture isn’t much prettier. Three goals scored in five matches, six conceded. The defence has been decent. The attack has been asleep. Tedesco paid with his job after four rounds, and Palladino’s debut against Torino ended 1-1 at the Dall’Ara: Federico Bernardeschi struck early, then a goalkeeping error handed the visitors their equaliser.
Not a dream start. But the squad is there. Riccardo Orsolini is pushing to start again, Nikola Moro is set to run the midfield from deep, and Nicolo Cambiaghi is back training with the group. Skorupski looks set to keep the gloves ahead of the young Pessina despite that mistake.
Up front, Artem Dovbyk is still behind in his fitness. Piccoli should lead the line again. Emil Holm is seriously injured and Jens Odgaard is out too, which thins out the options on the flanks.
One addition worth noting: Matteo Darmian signed as a free agent this week, the deal confirmed on 8 October. Experience at the back, exactly what a jittery side needs. Bologna don’t need a revolution here. They need one win to break the spell.
Probable lineup Lecce: Falcone; Veiga, Tiago Gabriel, Siebert, Gallo; Coulibaly, Ilic, Maleh; Pierotti, Stulic, Monteiro
Probable lineup Bologna: Skorupski; Helland, Heggem, Theate; Zortea, Ferguson, Moro, Miranda; Orsolini, Cambiaghi; Piccoli
Free Serie A Prediction: Lecce vs Bologna
Our prediction: Bologna to win @ 1.94
Lecce concede two a game. Bologna’s problem has been finishing, not creating, and there’s no softer back line in their recent schedule than the one they’ll meet on Sunday. Ten goals shipped in five matches tells you everything you need to know.
Palladino’s record against Lecce, three wins, three draws and just one defeat, isn’t a coincidence. His sides press high and Di Francesco’s open shape leaves gaps behind the full-backs. Orsolini and Cambiaghi will live in those spaces.
Bologna are overdue. The table flatters nobody, but the squad gap is real and Lecce were dismantled the last time they faced quality. Bologna take the three points.
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