- 1 Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills: the top two in the title market, one big defensive gap
- 2 Los Angeles Rams: a top-three defence that nobody’s talking about
- 3 Buffalo Bills: the best attack in the league, attached to a leaking defence
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills: the top two in the title market, one big defensive gap 
Monday Night Football rarely gets a matchup this big in early October. The Rams and the Bills sit first and second in the market to win the Super Bowl, and they meet at SoFi Stadium to close out Week 5.
Records don’t tell the whole story here. Los Angeles are 2-2 but still top of the title odds. Buffalo are 3-1 but coming off a 29-26 loss to New England, a game they lost as 6.5-point favourites.
The offences are both outstanding. Buffalo lead the NFL in scoring at 31.8 points per game and rank eighth in yards. The Rams have the reigning MVP in Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, who’s working his way back to his best. The total of 54.5 tells you what the market expects.
So where’s the edge? On defence. That’s where these two teams look completely different, and it’s the part of the game that’s been getting far less attention than it deserves.
Recent history between these two points towards an open game. The Over has landed in four of the last six meetings, and it’s also hit in seven of each side’s last ten games. Nobody’s expecting a low-scoring night in Inglewood.
Kick-off is Monday 12 October at 8:15 p.m. ET, which is 02:15 on Tuesday 13 October in Paris, live on ESPN and ABC. The Rams are 2.5 to 3-point favourites, around 1.68 on the moneyline, with Buffalo near 2.24.
Los Angeles Rams: a top-three defence that nobody’s talking about 
Third in opponent EPA per play. Fifth in opponent success rate. Top ten against the run. The Rams’ defence has quietly been one of the best in football, and it’s the main reason they’re still favourites to win it all despite a .500 record.
That run defence matters a lot on Monday. Buffalo’s offence is at its most dangerous when Josh Allen can lean on the ground game and set up play-action. Take that away and the Bills become more predictable.
The Rams showed some resilience last week, coming back from a double-digit deficit to beat Philadelphia. It wasn’t pretty for long stretches. But a comeback win like that tends to do something for a dressing room heading into a prime-time game at home.
The weakness is ball security. Los Angeles have turned it over twice in every game they’ve played this season. Against a Bills defence with Greg Rousseau and Bradley Chubb hunting the ball, that’s the one habit that could hand Buffalo the game.
Offensively, there’s plenty to work with. Stafford, Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams make up as deep a group of weapons as any in the league.
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Buffalo Bills: the best attack in the league, attached to a leaking defence 
Buffalo score more points than anyone in the NFL. That much is clear. The problem is what happens when the other team has the ball.
The Bills rank 30th in opponent EPA per play and 28th in opponent success rate. Only the Lions and the Cowboys have been worse. They’re allowing more than 370 yards and more than 26 points per game, and New England exposed it last week. Drake Maye threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns against them.
The injury report doesn’t help. D.J. Moore is questionable at wide receiver, and on defence Christian Benford, Dee Alford, Ed Oliver and T.J. Sanders all carry a questionable tag. That’s a lot of uncertainty in the secondary and on the interior heading into a road game against Stafford.
There are reasons for optimism. The Bills are 3-1 against the spread this season and 4-2 against the spread in the last six meetings with the Rams. They’ve also got Josh Allen, and with Allen, a bounce-back performance is always on the table.
But a bounce-back from the offence won’t be enough on its own. Buffalo need their defence to show up, and nothing in the first four weeks suggests it will.
Jim Leonhard’s unit does have the personnel to make plays, though. Greg Rousseau and Bradley Chubb can pressure any quarterback, and the Rams’ habit of giving the ball away is exactly what a struggling defence needs. Can they force mistakes before Stafford finds a rhythm? That’s Buffalo’s best route.
Probable lineup Los Angeles Rams: QB Matthew Stafford; RB Kyren Williams; WR Puka Nacua; WR Davante Adams. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Buffalo Bills: QB Josh Allen; WR D.J. Moore (questionable); EDGE Greg Rousseau; EDGE Bradley Chubb; CB Christian Benford (questionable). Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills
Our prediction: Los Angeles Rams -2.5 (1.85)
Both teams will score. That’s almost a given. The question is which defence gets the key stops, and on that front the gap is enormous: the Rams sit third in opponent EPA per play, the Bills sit 30th.
Los Angeles are also top ten against the run, which takes away the part of Buffalo’s game that makes Allen so hard to defend. Facing Stafford and Nacua with a banged-up secondary is about as tough an assignment as the Bills could have drawn this week.
The turnovers are the risk. If the Rams give it away twice again, Buffalo can steal this. But at home, on a short line, with a far better defence, we’re backing Los Angeles to win by at least a field goal.
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