- 1 Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions: two offences that can score, two defences that can’t stop anyone
- 2 Arizona Cardinals: Brissett can sling it, but the losing streak is real
- 3 Detroit Lions: Goff and St. Brown are rolling, the defence is in freefall
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions: two offences that can score, two defences that can’t stop anyone 
The total for this game is 54.5 points. That’s one of the highest numbers on the Week 5 board, and once you look at the two defences involved, it starts to make a lot of sense.
Detroit allow 423.8 total yards per game. No other defence in the NFL gives up more than 400. They’ve also conceded 17 touchdowns, more than any team in the league, and 31.8 points per game. For a club with playoff ambitions, those numbers are alarming.
Arizona aren’t much better. The Cardinals concede 29.2 points per game, 29th in the league, and they’ve lost three straight after a Week 1 upset of the Chargers. Last week they gave up 36 to a Giants side playing its backup quarterback.
The difference is at the other end. Detroit’s offence ranks sixth in EPA per play and third in success rate, and Jared Goff has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league through four weeks. Arizona can move the ball too, mainly through the air with Jacoby Brissett.
There’s one dissenting voice in all this. Recent meetings between these sides have mostly stayed low, with the Under landing in four of the last five. But those games came with very different rosters and very different defences. Current form matters more than history here.
Kick-off is Sunday 11 October at 4:25 p.m. ET at State Farm Stadium, which is 22:25 in Paris, with FOX on the broadcast. Detroit are 4.5-point favourites and around 1.46 on the moneyline.
Arizona Cardinals: Brissett can sling it, but the losing streak is real 
Three defeats on the bounce. After beating the Chargers in Week 1, Arizona have struggled to find a way to close out games, and they sit at 1-3 heading into Sunday.
The one thing they do well is throw the football. Since Jacoby Brissett took over as the starter, the Cardinals have been at their best in the passing game, particularly late on when they’re chasing the game. Against a Detroit secondary that’s been carved open all season, that’s a real weapon.
Brissett isn’t a star, though. He ranks 22nd in adjusted EPA per play, which is roughly what you’d expect from a veteran bridge quarterback. He’ll make the throws in front of him and occasionally hit something bigger. Can he keep pace with Goff for sixty minutes? That’s the question.
Defensively, there isn’t much to lean on. Twenty-nine points allowed per game, and a 36-24 loss to New York last week where Jameis Winston threw three touchdowns. This unit doesn’t bear close inspection right now.
History doesn’t help either. Detroit are 5-0-1 in the last six meetings between these two sides, and Arizona are 3-7 against the spread over their last ten games.
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Detroit Lions: Goff and St. Brown are rolling, the defence is in freefall 
Amon-Ra St. Brown has 31 catches on 46 targets and five touchdowns through four games. He’s the engine of an offence that keeps putting up points, and Goff ranks as the fourth highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy terms so far this season.
There’s an interesting detail in how that production arrives. Goff has been fairly ordinary in first halves, then much better after the break, largely because Detroit keep getting dragged into high-scoring games. That pattern says plenty about the other side of the ball.
Because the defence is a genuine problem. Last in opponent EPA per play, 29th in opponent success rate, last in total yards allowed. Opposing quarterbacks have had a great time against this group. There’s no sugarcoating it.
It explains the 2-2 record, and it explains why the Over has landed in all four of Detroit’s games this season. When the Lions play, points follow, at both ends. That’s been true every single week.
Jahmyr Gibbs gives Goff a second dimension out of the backfield, and Detroit rewarded him in the summer with one of the richest running back contracts ever signed, at $22.5 million a year. When the passing game stalls, he’s the outlet. It doesn’t stall often.
Detroit are only 3-7 against the spread over their last ten games, which is another sign that they win shootouts rather than control them. That matters when choosing how to approach this one.
Probable lineup Arizona Cardinals: QB Jacoby Brissett. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Detroit Lions: QB Jared Goff; RB Jahmyr Gibbs; WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions
Our prediction: Over 54.5 total points (1.91)
The Over is 4-0 in Lions games this season, and that’s no coincidence. Detroit’s offence sits near the top of the league in efficiency while their defence sits at the very bottom. Every game they play turns into a track meet, and there’s nothing in Arizona’s profile to suggest this one will be different.
The Cardinals give up 29.2 points per game and just conceded 36 at home to a backup quarterback. Brissett, meanwhile, is at his best when he’s chasing, and against a defence allowing 423.8 yards per game, he’ll have plenty of chances to keep the scoreboard moving late on.
We think Detroit probably win, but the cleaner angle is the total. Two offences that can score, two defences that can’t stop anyone, under the roof in Glendale. The number is high for a reason, and we still expect it to go over.
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