- 1 New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings: the league’s best defence meets its worst
- 2 New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough keeps scoring, the defence keeps leaking
- 3 Minnesota Vikings: unbeaten, but their kicker has outscored the offence
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings: the league’s best defence meets its worst 
Minnesota allow 12.8 points per game, the lowest figure in the NFL. New Orleans allow 32, the highest. On paper, that’s about as wide a gap as you’ll find between two defences in Week 5.
And yet the Vikings are only 1.5-point favourites at the Caesars Superdome. Why so tight? Because Minnesota’s 4-0 record hides an offence that’s barely functioning, while the Saints have scored at least 24 points in every game they’ve played.
That’s what makes this one interesting. You’ve got two teams that are almost mirror images of each other: one wins with defence and special teams, the other loses despite a quarterback who’s been producing week after week.
The Saints are also coming off a rough Monday night. Atlanta ran for 205 yards and five touchdowns against them in a 45-point performance, and New Orleans now have a short week to put that right. Minnesota, by contrast, have an early bye straight after this game.
The spread itself has bounced around a little, with some books showing the Saints at +2.5 rather than +1.5. Either way, it’s priced as close to a coin flip. That’s a fair reflection of two flawed sides, but one flaw is easier to hide than the other.
Kick-off is Sunday 11 October at 1:00 p.m. ET, 19:00 in Paris. The total sits between 41.5 and 42.5, and the Vikings are priced around 1.77 on the moneyline.
New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough keeps scoring, the defence keeps leaking 
Tyler Shough has done his part. The second-year quarterback is completing 67.2% of his passes with nine touchdowns and three interceptions, and the Saints throw on roughly 66% of their snaps, the fourth-highest rate in the league.
That pass-heavy approach isn’t entirely by choice. New Orleans rank 30th in rushing yards and yards per carry, so almost everything goes through Shough’s right arm. He gets the ball out quickly, which helps against pressure. It’ll need to.
The defence is where it falls apart. Thirty-two points allowed per game is the worst mark in the NFL, and 147.8 rushing yards conceded per game ranks 30th. Monday night against Atlanta was the ugliest version yet. Five rushing touchdowns at home. That takes some explaining.
There’s a case for the Saints, and it’s worth hearing out. They’re 8-2 against the spread over their last ten games and 6-4 against the spread in the last ten meetings with Minnesota. They’ve also covered as underdogs plenty of times when people wrote them off.
But the turnaround from Monday to Sunday is a genuine handicap. Six days to fix a run defence that’s been gashed all season, against a team with a full week of preparation, is a lot to ask.
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Minnesota Vikings: unbeaten, but their kicker has outscored the offence 
Here’s a strange stat. Over the Vikings’ last three games, their kicker has outscored their offence 35-6. That’s not a typo, and it tells you exactly how Minnesota are winning games right now.
The offence ranks 28th in EPA per play and 31st in offensive DVOA. Since putting up 39 points in Week 1, the Vikings have averaged just 15 per game. Against Miami last week they went 0-for-3 in the red zone and still won. That’s not sustainable, and Kevin O’Connell knows it.
Kyler Murray is under centre after clearing concussion protocol earlier in the season. Justin Jefferson’s status is the big question: he left the Tampa Bay game with an ankle injury and his availability for Sunday isn’t settled. With him, Murray has a genuine big-play option. Without him, it gets very cramped.
It’s also worth remembering how Minnesota opened the season. They came from 12 points down in the fourth quarter to beat Green Bay 39-22 on opening night, with Carson Wentz coming off the bench after Murray’s early concussion. This team doesn’t panic when things go wrong. They’ve shown that already.
The defence is the reason they’re 4-0. Brian Flores’ unit allows 12.8 points per game, holds opponents to a 22.6% conversion rate on third down and ranks first in the league in both pressure rate and sacks. It’s a side that knows what it’s about.
That pressure is the key matchup on Sunday. Shough has faced one of the lowest pressure rates in the league so far. Flores will make sure that changes.
Probable lineup New Orleans Saints: QB Tyler Shough; K Daniel Carlson. Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Minnesota Vikings: QB Kyler Murray; RB Aaron Jones Sr.; WR Justin Jefferson (ankle, status uncertain). Full lineup not announced at time of publication.
Free NFL Prediction: New Orleans Saints vs Minnesota Vikings
Our prediction: Minnesota Vikings to win (1.77)
We’d normally be wary of backing an offence this blunt on the road. But the Vikings don’t need to be good offensively to win this one. They need to run the ball at a defence that’s just conceded five rushing touchdowns, and let their pass rush do the rest.
Minnesota rank first in pressure rate and sacks. New Orleans can’t run the ball, so Shough will be dropping back over and over against the most aggressive front he’s seen all season, on a short week. That’s where the game turns.
The Saints will probably score. They always do. But a 32-points-allowed defence on six days’ rest, facing a rested opponent with an elite pass rush, is a tough spot to back. We’re taking Minnesota to stay unbeaten heading into their bye.
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