- 1 Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: a stalled surprise package hosts the derby winners
- 2 Deportivo Alaves: a flying start that’s lost its wings
- 3 Atletico Madrid: summer signings firing and a derby win to build on
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid: a stalled surprise package hosts the derby winners 
Three straight wins, nine goals scored, one conceded. That’s Atletico Madrid’s run going into the international break, and the last of those wins was a 2-1 derby victory over Real Madrid. They come to Vitoria-Gasteiz on Saturday sitting 2nd in La Liga on 16 points.
Deportivo Alaves were the story of August and early September. Ten points from their first four games had them near the top and had people talking. Then it stopped. Three league games without a win since, and they’ve slipped to 6th on 11 points.
Kick-off at Mendizorroza is 16:15 Paris time on matchday eight. It’s a ground that’s usually tight and loud, and Alaves will lean on that. But the history between these two doesn’t bear close inspection from a home point of view.
Across the last 20 meetings, Atletico have won 12, there have been six draws, and Alaves have won just twice. That’s not a rivalry. It’s a pattern.
The question, really, is whether Alaves can rediscover what made their first month work. Is a fortnight’s break enough to reset? It might be. It’s still a big ask against a side that’s found its rhythm at exactly the right time.
Deportivo Alaves: a flying start that’s lost its wings 
The opening month was something else. Alaves beat Getafe 3-0, Villarreal 1-0 and Osasuna 5-2, and for a while they looked like the side nobody wanted to play. Then they went to Racing Santander, the newly promoted Segunda champions, and lost 2-1.
That defeat seemed to knock something loose. They lost 1-0 at home to Valencia next, which was the bigger concern, then ground out a 0-0 draw at San Mames against Athletic Bilbao. A point in a Basque derby is fine. One win in four isn’t.
The attack is still the reason to take them seriously. Lucas Boyé has four league goals, and Mariano Diaz has three goals and three assists, which is quite the revival for a 33-year-old who’d barely played for two seasons. Toni Martinez, who scored 14 in La Liga last season, completes the trio.
Defensively, there are holes. Garces is out with a cruciate ligament injury and also serving a FIFA suspension, Miguel Rodriguez has an ankle problem and Denis Suarez is nursing a muscle strain. Koski, signed permanently this summer, is also reported to be carrying a knock. Valentini, a summer arrival from Fiorentina, should start.
That’s a lot of change at the back for a side about to face one of the league’s most in-form attacks. Can they hold their shape for 90 minutes? On recent evidence, probably not.
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Atletico Madrid: summer signings firing and a derby win to build on 
Beating Real Madrid 2-1 before the break was the headline, but the run around it matters just as much. Atletico thrashed Osasuna 4-0 and won 3-0 at Real Sociedad first. Three wins, three convincing performances.
They haven’t had an easy schedule either. They’ve already played five sides from the top half, drawing 2-2 at Villarreal with ten men and winning 3-1 at Sevilla. The only league defeat came at Athletic Bilbao, a 3-0 loss that now looks like an outlier.
The new faces have made a quick impact. Jonathan David, signed from Juventus this summer, has three goals in three La Liga games. Kang-in Lee, who arrived from PSG, has two goals and an assist, and Hjulmand has slotted into midfield after his move from Sporting. Alex Baena leads the way with four goals and an assist.
Grimaldo has chipped in too, scoring against Real Sociedad and from the spot against Real Madrid. Lookman, with just one goal, has been the quiet one. Not everything’s clicking. Most of it is.
Barrios and Sorloth, who hasn’t made a La Liga appearance this season because of a knee issue, are expected to miss the trip. Oblak and Romero have also been flagged as fitness concerns, so watch the team sheet closely.
Probable lineup Deportivo Alaves: Sivera; Perez, Tenaglia, Valentini, Johny, Rebbach; Ibanez, Blanco, Suarez; Martinez, Boyé (Suarez doubtful)
Probable lineup Atletico Madrid: Oblak; Pubill, Romero, Hancko; Simeone, Llorente, Cardoso, Baena, Grimaldo; Lee, David (Oblak and Romero to be confirmed)
Free Football Prediction: Deportivo Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
Our prediction: Atletico Madrid win @ 1.86
Atletico are on three straight league wins and have scored nine goals across them. Alaves have one win in their last four, lost at home to Valencia, and go into this one with several defensive absences.
The head-to-head points the same way: 12 Atletico wins in the last 20 meetings against just two for Alaves. When one side keeps winning a fixture that comfortably, it isn’t luck.
Alaves will make it awkward, and their front three can hurt anyone. But Atletico have more quality, more depth and better form right now. At 1.86, the away win is the pick.
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