- 1 Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens: a nine-point swing and one very important ankle
- 2 Atlanta Falcons: Penix is back and Bijan Robinson is running riot
- 3 Baltimore Ravens: 3-1, but 6-11 all-time without Lamar
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens: a nine-point swing and one very important ankle 
When the Week 5 lookahead lines came out, Baltimore were six-point favourites in Atlanta. Today the Falcons are three-point favourites. A nine-point swing in a couple of days, and almost all of it comes down to one player.
Lamar Jackson sprained his ankle on the last offensive play of the first half against Tennessee. He’d thrown for 222 yards and two touchdowns at that point. Baltimore didn’t score again, held on to win 24-18, and head coach Jesse Minter has since described Jackson’s chances of playing on Sunday as an “outside” chance.
That would mean Tyler Huntley’s first start of the season, on Sunday Night Football, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Kick-off is 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday 11 October, which is 02:20 Paris time in the early hours of Monday 12 October.
But this isn’t only a story about Baltimore’s quarterback. Atlanta are 2-2 and look like a different team since Michael Penix Jr. came back from his knee rehab. They beat Green Bay and New Orleans by a combined 80-38, winning both games by exactly 21 points.
It’s also a big night inside the building. John Abraham joins the Falcons’ Ring of Honor at this game, and the home crowd will be loud from the first snap. Is this the week Atlanta announce themselves as the team to beat in the NFC South?
Atlanta Falcons: Penix is back and Bijan Robinson is running riot 
Two weeks ago, Atlanta’s offence ranked dead last in EPA per play. It’s now up to 17th. That’s how big the jump has been since Penix returned under centre.
Penix ranks fourth among quarterbacks in both EPA per play and success rate this season. Behind him, Bijan Robinson has been close to unstoppable: 339 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns over the last two games alone, and 494 yards at 5.8 a carry for the season, plus 120 receiving yards and five total scores.
The defence deserves its share of credit too. Atlanta rank eighth in EPA per play allowed and fourth in yards per play allowed, despite losing A.J. Terrell to injured reserve with a groin problem in September. Kevin Stefanski’s side have found a balance that simply wasn’t there in the first fortnight.
There are a couple of question marks. Za’Darius Smith and Jake Matthews are both listed as questionable, and losing either would weaken a line that’s been doing the hard yards in both directions.
Robinson faces a tougher test here. Baltimore allow just 3.9 yards per carry, so the Falcons may have to lean on Penix’s arm a bit more than they did against Green Bay and New Orleans. On current form, that’s not a frightening prospect.
They’ve handled the bright lights already. The 35-14 win in Green Bay came on a Thursday night at Lambeau Field, after Atlanta had trailed 7-0 early, and the win over New Orleans came on Monday Night Football. This group doesn’t shrink in primetime.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Baltimore Ravens: 3-1, but 6-11 all-time without Lamar 
Since Jackson became Baltimore’s full-time starter in 2019, the Ravens are 6-11 in games he’s missed. They’re 2-5 in the last seven. That record makes for uncomfortable reading on a week like this.
Jackson was having a brilliant start before the injury: 967 passing yards on a career-high 70.8% completion rate, six touchdowns, one interception and 144 rushing yards at 7.6 a carry. He’s the engine of everything Baltimore do. No fixing that with one lineup change.
Huntley isn’t a disaster as a backup. He completed eight of nine passes for 63 yards against Tennessee and has 13 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions and five rushing scores across 31 career games. What he isn’t is a threat that bends a defence out of shape.
The injury report goes beyond the quarterback, too. Trey Hendrickson, Ronnie Stanley and Marlon Humphrey are all questionable, and rookie receiver Ja’Kobi Lane is on injured reserve. If even two of those three miss out, the Ravens are short on both sides of the ball.
Baltimore have also been a poor bet so far: 1-3 against the spread this season, even while winning three of four. The 34-31 win over Dallas in Rio needed a 56-yard field goal at the buzzer. They’ve been finding ways to win rather than dominating.
Probable lineup Atlanta Falcons: QB Michael Penix Jr., RB Bijan Robinson (full lineup not announced at time of publication)
Probable lineup Baltimore Ravens: QB Tyler Huntley if Lamar Jackson is ruled out (full lineup not announced at time of publication)
Free NFL Prediction: Atlanta Falcons vs Baltimore Ravens
Our prediction: Atlanta Falcons -3 (1.93)
Everything points towards Jackson sitting this one out, and Baltimore’s record without him is simply poor. Atlanta, meanwhile, aren’t just benefiting from an injury. They’ve scored 80 points in two weeks, their quarterback ranks fourth in EPA per play and their defence is top eight by the same measure.
The Falcons are -3 at 1.93, with the moneyline at 1.62 for anyone wanting a little less risk. We prefer the spread. A Huntley-led offence that failed to score in the second half against Tennessee doesn’t look built to keep pace with Robinson and Penix at home.
One warning: if Jackson is cleared late in the week, this line will move sharply and the read changes. Without him, Atlanta -3 is the pick.
in your pocket.
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