- 1 Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts: rest against travel at Acrisure Stadium
- 2 Pittsburgh Steelers: Rodgers needs time, and this Colts front might give it to him
- 3 Indianapolis Colts: the most disciplined team in football, but a passing game that won’t fire
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts: rest against travel at Acrisure Stadium 
Two teams at 2-2, both with negative point differentials, separated by a field goal in the betting. On paper, Pittsburgh against Indianapolis looks like a coin toss. The calendar says otherwise.
The Steelers played on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, so they’ve had a long week to recover and prepare. The Colts are coming back from London, where they played last Sunday, and they don’t get the bye week that usually follows an overseas trip. One side arrives fresh. The other arrives jet-lagged.
Kick-off at Acrisure Stadium is at 1:00 p.m. ET on Sunday 11 October, which is 19:00 Paris time. Pittsburgh are 2.5-point favourites, with the moneyline at 1.77 for the Steelers and 2.10 for the Colts, and the total has dropped from 47.5 to 44.5.
The numbers underneath are interesting. Pittsburgh are -10 on point differential, Indianapolis only -2. The Colts have been the more disciplined team by a distance, while the Steelers have struggled to protect their quarterback.
So does discipline beat home field and a rest advantage? That’s the question Sunday answers.
The game plans aren’t hard to guess. Pittsburgh want to protect Rodgers, feed Jaylen Warren and let T.J. Watt hunt. Indianapolis want to give the ball to Jonathan Taylor, stay out of trouble with the referee and finish their drives in the red zone. Whoever imposes their script first will take control.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Rodgers needs time, and this Colts front might give it to him 
Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times in four games, the second-highest total in the league. That’s the first problem Mike McCarthy has had to solve, and it explains a lot about an offence converting just 32% of its third downs and 44.4% of its red-zone trips.
When Rodgers does get time, he can still hurt people. He’s thrown for 999 yards, seven touchdowns and four interceptions, with an 81.6 passer rating, and his average depth of target sits at 9.2 yards. DK Metcalf remains the deep threat this offence is built to find.
This week’s matchup should help. Indianapolis rank among the worst defences in the league for yards per play allowed and have one of the lowest pressure rates in football. Fewer bodies in Rodgers’ face means more chances downfield.
Jaylen Warren gives the offence balance. He’s run for 309 yards at 4.41 a carry, and the Colts concede 4.8 yards per rush. On defence, T.J. Watt already has four sacks, joint third in the league.
The concern is the back end. Pittsburgh have given up 24.7 points per game over the last three weeks, and DeShon Elliott and Derrick Harmon are both on injured reserve. That defence can ill afford another slow start.
The market has noticed. The total has already dropped from 47.5 to 44.5 since opening, a sign that bettors expect a grind rather than a shootout.
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Indianapolis Colts: the most disciplined team in football, but a passing game that won’t fire 
Sixteen penalties for 105 yards in four games. Nobody in the NFL has been cleaner. In a close game, that kind of discipline is worth points.
Indianapolis are efficient when they get close, too. They’ve scored touchdowns on 75% of their red-zone trips, sixth-best in the league, and they hold opponents to 29.2% on third down. Small things done well, week after week.
The problem is moving the ball through the air. Daniel Jones has completed 84 of 132 passes for 754 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions, a 73.9 passer rating that’s among the lowest of any starter. Without Alec Pierce, the 1,003-yard receiver from last season who’s now on injured reserve, the passing game has lost its best outlet.
That leaves Jonathan Taylor carrying the load. He has 353 rushing yards, joint fifth in the NFL, and Pittsburgh have allowed one of the highest yards-per-carry figures in the league since Week 2. Expect the Colts to hand him the ball early and often.
Tyler Warren is the other name to know. The tight end has become a central target in a passing game that’s produced just 699 yards in four games, and he’s the safest outlet Jones has.
The trip is what worries us most. A London game followed straight away by a road game, with no week off in between, is a tough ask for any roster. It tends to show in the fourth quarter.
Probable lineup Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Aaron Rodgers (full lineup not announced at time of publication)
Probable lineup Indianapolis Colts: QB Daniel Jones (full lineup not announced at time of publication)
Free NFL Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts
Our prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers to win (1.77)
The scheduling edge is too big to ignore. Pittsburgh have had extra rest after playing on Thursday, while Indianapolis come into this one straight off a London trip with no bye. In an evenly matched game, that difference in legs and preparation tends to decide it late.
The matchup helps the home side as well. Rodgers’ main problem has been pressure, and the Colts generate very little of it. Jones, on the other hand, hasn’t shown he can win a game with his arm, and Pittsburgh’s pass rush, led by Watt, is built to make life uncomfortable for a quarterback with a 73.9 rating.
We’d rather avoid the 2.5-point spread in a game that could be decided by a field goal. The Steelers on the moneyline at 1.77 is the pick.
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