Thirty-second out of thirty-two
Thirty-second out of thirty-two. That was where the San Francisco 49ers defense ranked last season in success rate allowed, at 46.8%. Against the run, same story. Dead last at 49.0%. For a franchise that built a decade on that side of the ball, the drop was impossible to hide.
You have to go back to 2021 and 2022 to find the San Francisco unit the rest of the NFL used to plan around. Third, then second overall, and second against the run in both seasons. What followed was a slide: 19th in 2023, 24th in 2024, last in 2025.
Try it for $0.99.
One game is not a season, but the tape says something
Week 1 of 2026 looked nothing like that. San Francisco handled the Rams 27-7 in Australia, gave up a single touchdown and forced two turnovers.
The raw numbers are still ordinary. The 49ers sit 20th in success rate allowed and surrendered close to 400 total yards. Opta’s advanced metrics tell a different story. Open-target rate allowed fell to 74.1%, seventh-best on the slate and better than any full season Kyle Shanahan has overseen since 2017.
No sacks. And yet the group got after the quarterback on 53.3% of dropbacks, fifth-best in the league that week. No Shanahan defense has sustained that number across a year either.
Warner is healthy, Greenlaw is back, Morris is running the back end
Three things explain it. Fred Warner is healthy again. Dre Greenlaw is next to him in the middle of the field. And the secondary now answers to defensive coordinator Raheem Morris.
Opta thinks the trend has legs. Context is worth keeping in mind, though. Week 1 of 2026 produced 52.43 points per game, an all-time NFL record, and 11 of the 32 teams cleared 30. Stopping anybody has gotten harder. Miami comes to town Sunday, and the Rams will not be there to make it look easy.
Discover the rest of the NFL news on our site and app mathodds!
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
Leave a Reply