The supercomputer got it wrong last year
Before the 2025-26 season, Opta had Chelsea as 72.4% favourites to win the WSL. Manchester City were given 13.6%. City ended up lifting the trophy, ending six years of Blues dominance.
The same model is having another go for 2026-27. This time, it is a lot less sure. Across 10,000 simulations run on 27 August, Chelsea win in 39.9% of cases. Manchester City follow on 30.5%, with Arsenal on 25.6%. That leaves the Gunners 4.9 percentage points behind the defending champions.
The league is changing shape too. There are 14 clubs in the top flight for the first time, and 26 matchdays rather than 22. The bottom side goes down, while 13th place faces a play-off against the WSL 2 runners-up.
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Arsenal have the numbers, but not the trophy yet
Andree Jeglertz delivered Manchester City their first title in 10 years in his first season in charge. Only the third coach to do that in the WSL. His side were at their best when it mattered most: 12 points from matches between the top four, and 15 goals in those games, nine more than any other rival.
The Champions League is back on the calendar this season. In return, the clubs involved in Europe no longer play in the League Cup.
Chelsea remain the model’s pick more out of habit than hot form. Eight titles since 2015, and only one finish outside the top two before last season. But in 2025-26, they scored their fewest goals since 2017-18 and posted their worst win rate since 2018-19. Sonia Bompastor saw plenty of departures this summer.
Arsenal already had the numbers. They posted the league’s best expected points total last season with 49.7, ahead of City (47.3) and Chelsea (43.7). Just one defeat. Only 8% of their game time spent behind, the lowest figure in the division. And they won 93% of the time after scoring first.
The issue was simple enough: too many draws. Six of them, in a title race decided by four points. The season ended with a 17-match unbeaten run, two short of the club record. Eleven departures, seven arrivals this summer, including Georgia Stanway.
Diani and Putellas are not enough for the model
Behind the top three, the machine sees a gap. Manchester United are best placed to squeeze into it, with a 12.0% chance of finishing in the top three. Eva Olid, brought in to replace Marc Skinner, took Hearts from bottom spot to the Scottish title. She inherits a squad weakened by the exit of Melvine Malard, who moved to Chelsea for a club-record sale fee, plus Leah Galton and Millie Turner.
The strangest case is London City Lionesses. Sixth in their first season in the top flight with 27 points, the highest total ever for a promoted side, the club brought in Alexia Putellas, Mapi Leon and Kadidiatou Diani this summer. The supercomputer gives them a 0.6% chance of making Europe. The model leans on past performance, not the names on the door.
At the bottom, nothing is settled. Charlton are the most at risk of going down automatically, on 16.0%. Birmingham follow on 14.5%, Crystal Palace on 13.2%, Aston Villa on 13.1%, West Ham on 12.8% and Liverpool on 11.3%. Those six clubs are separated by just 4.7 percentage points.
Liverpool have every reason to rue last season. They failed to win any of their first 12 matches, the worst start in their WSL history, then picked up four wins from their final 10. No club underperformed their expected points more badly: 7.5 fewer than the level their performances suggested.
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