- 1 West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton: seven league goals missing from the Saints attack
- 2 West Bromwich Albion: 3-1 at the London Stadium, and 9 goal involvements from Morgan
- 3 Southampton: 2.60 points a game at St Mary’s, 1.60 away from it
- 4 Free Football Prediction: West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton: seven league goals missing from the Saints attack 
Cyle Larin has scored seven of Southampton’s league goals this season, more than anyone at the club, and he’s listed as out with a hamstring injury for Tuesday’s trip to The Hawthorns. Kick-off is 20:00 UK time on Tuesday 3 November.
The absence arrives at an awkward moment for Tonda Eckert’s side, because the form underneath it is very good. Southampton beat QPR 4-1 at St Mary’s on Saturday and have taken 8 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats from 13 Championship games, with a goal difference of +15.
That record would normally put them in the automatic places. A points deduction has them fifth on 23 instead, one behind West Brom, who are fourth on 24 after 7 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats.
West Brom’s weekend result was the better of the two. James Morrison’s side went to the London Stadium and won 3-1, handing West Ham a third home league defeat of the season. Before that came a 1-1 draw at Preston and a 3-2 win over Blackburn.
The prices reflect how close this is. The home win is 2.50, the draw 3.40 and Southampton 2.75. We lean towards the home side, and the Larin news is the main reason the lean holds.
Recent history is tight as well. The last meeting at The Hawthorns finished 1-1 on 11 March 2026, and league games on this ground since 2002 read four West Brom wins, six draws and four Southampton wins.
West Bromwich Albion: 3-1 at the London Stadium, and 9 goal involvements from Morgan 
Jimmy-Jay Morgan has five league goals and four assists, the highest combined figure in the squad. Isaac Price has four goals and two assists from midfield, and 15 shots on target, so the threat isn’t confined to the centre-forward.
Styles and Aune Heggebo have three goals each. That spread matters in a side averaging 1.5 goals a game, because it means Morrison doesn’t need one man to carry the scoring in the way Southampton have relied on Larin.
Over the last ten matches in all competitions, West Brom have taken 1.80 points a game, with 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded. Their expected goals figures in that run, 1.40 for and 1.33 against, are close to the actual numbers.
The away form has outperformed the home form across those ten games, 2.00 points a game on the road against 1.60 at The Hawthorns. We’d count that as the main argument against the pick, since the home record reads draw, win, draw, defeat, win.
The squad is short in specific places. Noah Galves is out for the season with a knee injury, Toby Collyer has a hamstring problem and Johnston is listed with a broken leg. Galves is the one Morrison feels most, as he leaves the side without a natural right-back.
They’ve also had a habit of falling behind. West Brom conceded first in six straight matches going into the West Ham game, and they’re unlikely to get away with that for ever against a side scoring 2.2 a game.
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Southampton: 2.60 points a game at St Mary’s, 1.60 away from it 
Southampton’s last ten matches split sharply by venue. They took 2.60 points a game at home, four wins and a draw from five, and 1.60 points a game away, with two wins, two draws and a defeat.
The best of those away days came on 24 October at the London Stadium. Kuryu Matsuki, James Bree and Lewis Dobbin all scored in the first 34 minutes of a 3-2 win over West Ham.
Matsuki now has four league goals, and Azaz has three goals and five assists. Eckert will need both of them to take on more with Larin gone, and the question is who leads the line, since no other Southampton player has more than four.
The defensive numbers are less convincing than the table suggests. Southampton have allowed 1.62 expected goals a game over their last ten matches, more than the 1.55 they’ve created, while conceding only 0.90 a game in reality.
That gap between expected and actual goals against is the kind we’d expect to close. They’ve kept three clean sheets in the league, and both teams have scored in 70% of their last ten games.
Downes is a doubt with an ankle injury, and he’s started the last four meetings with West Brom, so Eckert could be without two regulars.
The long-term record still favours Southampton, with 12 wins to West Brom’s five and four draws across 21 meetings. Their last win in this fixture was 3-2 at home in December 2025.
Probable lineup West Bromwich Albion: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Southampton: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton
Our prediction: West Bromwich Albion draw no bet (odds 1.80)
We’d take West Brom with the draw as insurance at 1.80. Southampton are without a forward responsible for seven goals, they’ve averaged 1.60 points a game away from home, and West Brom arrive from a 3-1 win at the London Stadium.
Southampton’s away win at West Ham and the head-to-head are the honest case against, and six draws from 14 league meetings on this ground explain why we don’t want the straight home win at 2.50. Draw no bet returns the stake if that pattern repeats.
The price of both teams to score, 1.53, is reasonable given 70% and 60% rates over the last ten, but it offers less. A 2-1 home win is the score we expect, with Morgan and Price the likeliest sources of the goals.
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