- 1 Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons: 44 from Davis wasn’t enough three nights ago
- 2 Washington Wizards: a 30.2% three-point team on the second night of a back-to-back
- 3 Detroit Pistons: 104.6 allowed a night and no Duren yet
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
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Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons: 44 from Davis wasn’t enough three nights ago 
Anthony Davis scored 44 points on 16-of-21 shooting in Detroit on Monday, with 13 rebounds and 30 of those points before half-time. Washington still lost 122-111, and nobody on the Pistons had to match him: five Detroit players reached double figures instead.
The rematch comes quickly. The Wizards host Detroit at Capital One Arena on Thursday 12 November, tip-off 7:00pm ET, and it’s the second half of a home-and-home that Detroit leads 1-0.
The schedule tilts it further. Washington play in Indiana on Wednesday night, so Thursday is the back end of a back-to-back. Detroit haven’t played since Monday and arrive on two days’ rest.
The records are 7-3 for Detroit, top of the Central, and 4-7 for Washington, who’ve lost four straight. That run reads 105-120 at home to Atlanta, 132-139 in Atlanta, 75-114 in Oklahoma City and Monday’s defeat in Detroit.
I’m not convinced the Davis game says much about the rematch. Detroit let him have his points, shut down most of the rest and won the second and third quarters 72-55. The Pistons led 103-87 going into the fourth, and Washington only made the scoreline respectable once the game was gone.
No line had been posted for Thursday at the time of writing. On Monday Detroit closed as 10.5-point favourites and won by 11.
Washington Wizards: a 30.2% three-point team on the second night of a back-to-back 
The Wizards shoot 30.2% from three as a team, and Monday was worse: 9-of-36. Trae Young went 3-of-10 from deep on his way to 20 points and seven assists. When the outside shot isn’t falling, this offence leans almost entirely on Davis in the post.
Davis averages 25.7 points and 9.7 rebounds, and he’s been playing through a right ankle sprain. He was listed as questionable before Monday’s game, scored 44 anyway, and now faces two games in two nights.
Young came over from Atlanta in January in the deal that sent CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert the other way. Davis arrived from Dallas in February as part of an eight-player trade. AJ Dybantsa, the No. 1 pick in June’s draft, scored 21 with eight rebounds in Detroit and has settled into the starting five.
Washington score 108.1 points a game and give up 113.4. The Under has landed in eight of their last nine games, which fits an offence that ranks 23rd by rating and has topped 111 only once in the four-game losing run.
The injury list doesn’t help. Bilal Coulibaly is a game-time decision with a hand problem, Tristan Vukcevic (hip) is out until at least 16 November, and Reece Beekman, Justin Champagnie and Jamir Watkins are all out long term.
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Detroit Pistons: 104.6 allowed a night and no Duren yet 
Detroit give up 104.6 points a game, the lowest figure in the league, and score 112.7. A net margin of 8.1 points a game is the main reason a team without its starting centre sits 7-3.
Jalen Duren has played two games and is out with a hamstring injury until around 24 November. Isaiah Joe (hip) is also out. On Monday J.B. Bickerstaff went small, started John Collins at centre and moved Paul Reed to the bench.
Collins answered with 24 points and 10 rebounds on 9-of-13 shooting. Daniss Jenkins scored 22 with eight assists, 13 of them in the third quarter, and Duncan Robinson added 22. Kevin Huerter chipped in 12.
Cade Cunningham averages 22.3 points and 7.6 assists, yet he played only 27 minutes on Monday after picking up his fifth foul in the third quarter and still finished with 17 and seven. The Pistons won comfortably with their best player on the bench for long spells.
They’re also 4-1 on the road, and they shoot 38.1% from three as a team against Washington’s 30.2%. Monday was an off night from deep for both sides at 8-of-31 and 9-of-36, and Detroit still won by 11.
Probable lineup Washington Wizards: Trae Young, Kyshawn George, AJ Dybantsa, Anthony Davis, Alex Sarr (based on Monday’s starters, not confirmed)
Probable lineup Detroit Pistons: Cade Cunningham, Daniss Jenkins, Duncan Robinson, Ausar Thompson, John Collins (based on Monday’s starters, not confirmed)
Free NBA Prediction: Washington Wizards vs Detroit Pistons
Our prediction: Detroit Pistons on the handicap
I’d back Detroit to cover. The moneyline closed at 1.25 on Monday and is likely to sit below our 1.45 floor again, so the handicap is the way in. Washington play in Indiana 24 hours earlier, Davis is carrying an ankle into his second game in two nights, and the Wizards’ four straight losses have come by 15, 7, 39 and 11 points.
The case against is that home teams on a back-to-back sometimes play well enough to keep it tight, and Davis has already shown he can score 44 against this defence. Monday’s margin of 11 also only just beat the 10.5-point line.
Detroit still have the league’s best defence, the better three-point shooting and two days of rest against a team that’s lost four on the bounce. If the number is posted around 10 points, Detroit at that handicap is the pick. Spread odds weren’t available at the time of writing.
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