- 1 Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense : the club’s worst start in 15 years
- 2 Vitória Guimarães, four goals in six games
- 3 Moreirense, a season all over the place
- 4 Football Prediction Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense : the club’s worst start in 15 years 
Four points from six games. Vitória Guimarães had not started a season this badly since 2011-12, when the club was on exactly the same total at this stage.
The vimaranense derby takes place this Sunday, 20 September at 16:30 Paris time, at the Estadio D. Afonso Henriques, in round seven of Liga Portugal.
14th with one win, one draw and four defeats, the Conquistadores are staring at a crisis. Moreirense sit 11th, lifted by their 3-1 win over Maritimo.
The sporting backdrop is brutal for Tiago Margarido, brought in this summer to replace Gil Lameiras. So far, the change in the dugout has brought no spark at all.
Last season already ended with a ninth-place finish, the club’s worst ranking in eight years. The slide keeps going.
One stat sums up this derby: Moreirense have lost 12 of their last 15 league trips to this ground, with three draws and no wins.
The last five visits have all ended in defeat. In Liga Portugal, Vitória lead this matchup 18 wins to four.
That is the only real comfort for the home side heading into this one. Form says the opposite.
This derby has arrived at the worst possible time for the hosts, who badly need to stop the bleeding against Moreirense. A fourth defeat in seven games would hurt badly.
Vitória Guimarães, four goals in six games 
Four goals scored since the start of the season. Only Estoril and Casa Pia, the bottom two, have done worse.
The last defeat summed up the whole season. After going behind and then levelling through Goncalo Nogueira, Vitória shipped Mohamed Bouldini’s winner in the 93rd minute at Academico de Viseu.
Losing away to a promoted side in that way, at this point in the season, leaves a mark in a dressing room that already looks fragile.
At home, the attacking numbers look even worse, with just one goal scored in three games at the Estadio D. Afonso Henriques.
There is at least one bright spot: two clean sheets in the last two home matches, and four points from that run. The defence is holding up. The attack is not.
The 0-0 draw with Casa Pia shows the imbalance perfectly. The chances are there. The finishing is not.
Alioune Ndoye will serve his suspension after the red card he picked up in stoppage time last week. Margarido loses an attacking option he could really have used.
Arnel Jakupovic, signed this summer, should keep his place up front despite a flat first start in Viseu. Alanzinho, recently sold by Moreirense, set up a goal on his debut and is pushing to start against his old club.
The 0-0 draw with Casa Pia and the 1-0 win over Nacional remain the only two home matches without defeat. Both featured just one goal.
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Moreirense, a season all over the place 
Two 4-0 beatings, against Benfica and Arouca, but also a draw with Braga and two wins. Moreirense’s start to the season is impossible to read.
The last outing did the job: 3-1 against Maritimo, with Leonardo Vonic and Manuel Mendonca scoring in the first half.
Duville-Parsemain wrapped it up from the spot late on. The summer signings carried the side on the day.
That win snapped a two-game losing streak, with defeats against Porto and Benfica. It lifted the club to 11th in the table.
Last season Moreirense finished seventh on 43 points, their third-best total in the Portuguese top flight. European football is not some wild fantasy.
The problem is away from home: five defeats in their last eight league trips, with one win and two draws going back to last season.
Guilherme Liberato returns from suspension after serving two matches and takes his place back in midfield. Mateja Stjepanovic will have to fight to stay alongside Nile John.
Joao Veloso is also back after the knock that kept him out against Maritimo. Vasco Botelho da Costa can also throw Vonic in from the start after his goal on debut.
Moreirense also lost 2-1 at Porto in early September and did not disgrace themselves. Away from home, this side can compete. It just does not often get the result.
Expected Vitória Guimarães line-up: Zych ; Strata, Rivas, Balieiro, Mendes ; Beni, G. Nogueira ; G. Silva, Samu, Camara ; Jakupovic
Expected Moreirense line-up: Ferreira ; Pinto, Batista, Maracas, Kiko ; Liberato, John ; Bondoso, Mendonca, Andrade ; Vonic
Football Prediction Vitória Guimarães vs Moreirense
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals
Vitória Guimarães have scored just one goal in three home matches this season, with two clean sheets in their last two at home.
Moreirense almost never score at this ground, where they are on a run of five straight defeats and have no win in 15 visits.
Their away form does nothing to sell the case either, with five losses in their last eight league trips.
A side that cannot score against a side that cannot win away from home: this derby should be decided by fine margins and very few chances. We are backing a tight game, under 2.5 goals.
The last three home matches for the Conquistadores have produced just one goal in total. A cagey contest against Moreirense feels the likeliest outcome.
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