- 1 Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs: the Western champions on a back-to-back, Utah waiting on two MRIs
- 2 Utah Jazz: 1-3, a defense giving up 124.7, and Markkanen and Jackson in doubt
- 3 San Antonio Spurs: Wembanyama’s four blocks a night and a five-man unit that won by 16 in Dallas
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs: the Western champions on a back-to-back, Utah waiting on two MRIs 
San Antonio beat Oklahoma City 111-103 in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals on 30 May. Five months later, the Spurs opened this season 1-2, losing 116-104 to the Thunder at home and 114-110 to Houston in Austin before winning 122-106 in Dallas on Saturday.
Wednesday’s game at the Delta Center, tip-off 9:00pm ET, is the second half of a back-to-back for Mitch Johnson’s team. The Spurs host Sacramento on Tuesday night and then fly to Salt Lake City. Utah has had Tuesday off after playing on both Sunday and Monday.
The bigger story is on the Utah side. Lauri Markkanen left Monday’s 110-105 loss to Memphis after six minutes with a right wrist injury, and Jaren Jackson Jr. went off after 10 minutes with a right knee problem. Will Hardy said afterwards, “I think Jaren tore something,” and both players were sent for MRIs.
Utah was already shorthanded in the frontcourt. Jaxson Hayes missed Monday with a shoulder problem and Jusuf Nurkic hasn’t played since preseason because of a foot injury. Mo Bamba made his season debut against Memphis and finished with 14 points, seven rebounds and four blocks.
Put those two situations side by side and the question becomes how much a tired San Antonio team can get away with. My answer is quite a lot, because Utah might be without both of its best frontcourt players, and the Spurs still have Victor Wembanyama.
Utah Jazz: 1-3, a defense giving up 124.7, and Markkanen and Jackson in doubt 
Utah’s only win came on a pair of free throws. Darryn Peterson made the go-ahead shots in a 120-119 home win over New Orleans on Friday, when Jackson had 24 points and 10 rebounds and Keyonte George added 19 points and 10 assists. The other three games were losses: 123-103 in Memphis, 132-123 to the Lakers and Monday’s 110-105 defeat.
The defense has been the issue throughout. Utah is allowing 124.7 points per game, 27th in the league, and it has turned the ball over 17.7 times a night. Opponents have scored at least 110 in every game, and the Lakers put up 132 at the Delta Center on Sunday.
George has been the most reliable creator. He had 24 points, nine rebounds and 10 assists against the Lakers, and he’s the player who’ll run the offense if Markkanen is missing. Ace Bailey has had double-doubles in each of the last two games, 17 points with 12 rebounds against the Lakers and 17 with 10 against Memphis.
Markkanen had scored 28 against the Lakers on Sunday before his early exit on Monday. Without him and Jackson, Hardy would have to start some combination of Bamba, Josh Green and Kyle Filipowski alongside George, Peterson and Bailey. That’s a very young group to throw at the reigning Western champions.
Utah did play San Antonio well at times last season. The Jazz won 127-114 in San Antonio on 27 December, before the Spurs won the next two meetings 123-110 and 126-109. The 126-109 game was in Salt Lake City.
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San Antonio Spurs: Wembanyama’s four blocks a night and a five-man unit that won by 16 in Dallas 
Wembanyama had a poor opening night, scoring 12 points on 1-of-13 shooting against Oklahoma City. He’s been much better since, with 25 points and 13 rebounds against Houston and 23 points, seven rebounds and four blocks in Dallas. He’s averaging 11.0 rebounds and 4.0 blocks, the most blocks in the league.
De’Aaron Fox has given the offense a second engine. He’s averaging 17.3 points and 8.3 assists on 58.1% shooting, and he had 19 points with nine assists in each of the last two games. In Dallas he added three steals as well.
The win over the Mavericks came on the second night of a back-to-back, which is useful context for Wednesday. Dylan Harper scored 22, Stephon Castle had 19 points and eight assists, Devin Vassell added 11 and Julian Champagnie scored 12 off the bench. San Antonio has already shown it can win a road game with tired legs.
The Spurs’ own defense hasn’t been at its usual level. Opponents are shooting 48.3% from the field against them, 25th in the league, and they’re allowing 112.0 points per game. San Antonio’s 3-point shooting has also been poor at 31.9%.
Tobias Harris was ruled out of Tuesday’s game against Sacramento with a left calf problem, and his status for Wednesday is unclear. Rookie Jayden Quaintance is still waiting to be cleared after a right knee injury. The Kings game result will also tell us how heavy the minutes were for Wembanyama and Fox the night before.
Probable lineup Utah Jazz: Keyonte George, Darryn Peterson, Ace Bailey, plus two from Lauri Markkanen (wrist, doubtful), Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee, doubtful), Mo Bamba and Josh Green. Not confirmed at time of publication.
Probable lineup San Antonio Spurs: De’Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama. Tobias Harris (calf) is uncertain.
Free NBA Prediction: Utah Jazz vs San Antonio Spurs
Our prediction: San Antonio Spurs on the handicap
Sportsbooks hadn’t posted a spread when this was written, partly because both MRI results were still pending. My pick is the Spurs to win and cover a handicap of up to eight points. If Markkanen and Jackson are both ruled out, I’d still take San Antonio at a slightly bigger number.
The reasoning comes down to the frontcourt. Utah’s defense is already 27th and allowing 124.7 a game, and it may now be playing without Jackson, Markkanen, Hayes and Nurkic. That leaves Bamba and a group of young forwards against Wembanyama, who’s blocking four shots a game, and Fox, who’s shooting 58.1%.
The back-to-back is the honest worry. San Antonio plays Sacramento on Tuesday, and a tired team can start slowly in Salt Lake City. But the Spurs won by 16 in Dallas on the second night of their last back-to-back, and they beat Utah by 17 at the Delta Center last January. I expect them to pull clear in the second half.
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