- 1 United States vs Belgium : the host nation takes on a fading Belgium generation
- 2 The United States are fired up, but Balogun is a big miss
- 3 An experienced Belgium side, but hardly flowing
- 4 Likely lineups :
- 5 World Cup 2026 prediction : United States vs Belgium
- 6 First, a word on our predictions
- 7 No commitment from us
- 8 Information that changes
- 9 Your role
- 10 Responsible gambling first
- 11 Legal age
- 12 About the images…
United States vs Belgium : the host nation takes on a fading Belgium generation 
Seattle Stadium hosts one of the most eagerly awaited last-16 ties of the tournament on Monday. On one side, the United States, fuelled by their fans and a campaign that saw them top their group before seeing off Bosnia. On the other, Belgium, still leaning on a handful of big names but pushed to the wire in the previous round. The backstory adds some spice: these two nations have not met at a World Cup since that famous clash in 2014, and the Americans have not beaten the Red Devils since 1930. Here are the key talking points.
The United States are fired up, but Balogun is a big miss 
Mauricio Pochettino’s side stepped up in the last round by beating Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0, a statement win earned the hard way after the United States finished the game with 10 men. Backed by a whole nation, they go into this last-16 tie with the energy and the authority of a host side.
The problem is the absence that hurts. Folarin Balogun, who scored his third goal of the tournament against Bosnia, was then sent off after a VAR review. His suspension leaves Pochettino without his sharpest striker. Ricardo Pepi looks the likeliest to come in from the start after featuring in the first four matches, while Haji Wright could be an option off the bench. Add in a few fitness doubts in the squad, with several backups carrying knocks before the game.
So the task for the United States is twofold: make up for the loss of their main scorer and turn the home support into goals, something they have not always done convincingly without Balogun.
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An experienced Belgium side, but hardly flowing
Belgium still turn up with a team sheet that looks impressive on paper. Thibaut Courtois in goal, Kevin De Bruyne in midfield and Romelu Lukaku up front: the Red Devils still have world-class talent to call on. But their previous outing gives reason for caution.
Against Senegal, Belgium spent most of the match chasing the game, trailing 2-0 until the closing stages before flipping the script with two goals in three minutes and then a Youri Tielemans penalty in the final minute of extra time. It was a scrape-through that exposed the cracks in the side. De Bruyne sums it up neatly: at 35, after a stop-start season with Napoli blighted by injuries, he has still not completed 90 minutes in this tournament and was withdrawn after 56 minutes against Senegal.
Experience and individual skill remain important in a knockout match. But if Belgium starts slowly, they will face serious difficulties against a United States team that presses hard and plays with intensity.
Likely lineups :
United States : Freese; Freeman, Ream, Richards, Robinson; Adams, Tillman; Dest, McKennie, Pulisic; Pepi
Belgium : Courtois; Castagne, Theate, Mechele, De Cuyper; Vanaken, Tielemans; Trossard, De Bruyne, Doku; De Ketelaere
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World Cup 2026 prediction : United States vs Belgium
Under 2.5 goals in the match
On paper, this looks tight. The numbers and recent trends back that up. Belgium have more experience in this sort of game, while the United States bring momentum, home backing and freshness, but they are missing their best finisher.
Given the last two outings for both teams, which were tense and short on consistent attacking punch, this feels like a cagey one, with the first mistake likely to matter most. Balogun’s absence for the United States and Belgium’s habit of struggling to really kill games off point towards a low-scoring contest.
Our read is a close battle, maybe decided by a single moment or even in extra time, with Belgium’s experience giving them a slight edge when the game gets hot. This is one to watch closely, with the value lying more in a controlled goal tally than in backing a clear winner.
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