- 1 Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: a first win for the hosts, a first wobble for the leaders
- 2 Union Berlin: every goal they’ve scored has come at home
- 3 Borussia Dortmund: unbeaten in the league, but rattled by the last week
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: a first win for the hosts, a first wobble for the leaders 
One point from their first four games. That was Union Berlin’s worst-ever start to a top-flight season, and for a while it looked like Mauro Lustrinelli’s side were in serious trouble. Then came last weekend’s 1-0 win over Elversberg, and suddenly there’s a little air in the room.
Borussia Dortmund arrive on Saturday, kick-off 15:30 Paris time at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei, with a very different story to tell. Niko Kovac’s side are unbeaten in the Bundesliga, with four wins and a draw, and they sit level on 13 points with leaders Freiburg.
The gap between the two clubs is obvious on paper. Union are 16th, the play-off spot, with four points. Dortmund could go top outright with a win here.
But the last week hasn’t been kind to BVB. They threw away a two-goal lead in the closing minutes against Werder Bremen, then lost 1-0 at Bodo/Glimt in the Champions League on Tuesday. Two disappointing results in a row, and now a trip to one of the league’s most awkward grounds.
There’s also some history worth noting. Since 2020, Dortmund have alternated between wins and defeats against Union. It’s not a fixture they’ve ever found simple.
And with Bayern Munich just two points back in third, Kovac can’t afford to let this one slip.
Union Berlin: every goal they’ve scored has come at home 
Seventeen goals conceded in four games. Before last weekend, Union had the leakiest defence in the Bundesliga, and the results showed it. A 4-0 defeat at Bayer Leverkusen. A 3-1 home loss to Schalke. And a 7-0 hammering in Munich that rather says it all.
So the clean sheet against Elversberg matters. It’s one game, against a promoted side, but it’s the first sign that the defence can hold its shape. Livan Burcu came off the bench and scored late to win it, and that kind of moment can change a dressing room.
Here’s the thing about Union, though: their attack only seems to show up at home. All five of their league goals have come at the Alten Försterei, including three in an opening-day 3-3 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt. On the road, they’ve got nothing.
The injury list doesn’t help. Strikers Emmanuel Latte Lath and Andrej Ilic are both out, the latter recovering from appendix surgery. Right-back Josip Juranovic has Achilles pain and illness, centre-back Stanley Nsoki has a calf issue, and Andrik Markgraf is still working back from a cruciate ligament injury.
That leaves Tim Skarke to lead the line. He’s the only Union player with two league goals this season. A lot rests on him.
Last season, Union finished 11th with a decent cushion over the drop zone. They’ll need that kind of grit again. Is one win enough to turn the tide? Probably not on its own.
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Borussia Dortmund: unbeaten in the league, but rattled by the last week 
Before the international break, Dortmund looked like the most complete side in Germany. Four straight league wins: 2-0 against Hamburg, 3-2 at Hoffenheim, 3-0 against Paderborn and 1-0 at Stuttgart. Two of those came away from home, and they were the kind of results title contenders pick up.
The Bremen game changed the mood. Dortmund led 2-0 with two minutes left, then conceded to Ludovit Reis and, in the 92nd minute, to former BVB striker Niclas Fullkrug. Two points gone in the time it takes to make a substitution. That’s the sort of collapse that lingers.
Midweek didn’t help. Kovac left Serhou Guirassy on the bench in Norway, started Fabio Silva instead, and Dortmund lost 1-0 to Bodo/Glimt. Guirassy, with two goals and two assists in the league plus two Champions League goals, should be back up front on Saturday.
The squad is fairly healthy. Justin Lerma is out with a muscle problem, and Giannis Konstantelias is in early rehab after an ACL injury picked up on the opening day. Emre Can is unlikely to play again in 2026. On the positive side, Nico Schlotterbeck was rested on Tuesday and should be fresh.
Felix Nmecha and Joey Veerman are set to start in midfield, with Ethan Nwaneri and Marcel Sabitzer supporting Guirassy. It’s a strong spine.
The quality is there. The question is whether they can close out games properly again.
Probable lineup Union Berlin: Ronnow; Haberer, Uduokhai, Van Den Bosch, Rothe; Schafer, Khedira; Aebischer, Jeong, Burcu; Skarke
Probable lineup Borussia Dortmund: Kobel; Gadou, Anton, Schlotterbeck; Ryerson, Veerman, Nmecha, Svensson; Nwaneri, Sabitzer; Guirassy
Free Bundesliga Prediction: Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Our prediction: Borussia Dortmund to win (odds 1.57)
Union deserve credit for that first win, and the home crowd will make life loud and uncomfortable. But this is a side that conceded 17 goals in its first four games and is missing both of its main strikers. One clean sheet against a promoted team doesn’t fix that.
Dortmund’s last week has been frustrating, not alarming. They’ve still won four of five league games, two of them on the road, and they should have a full-strength midfield and Guirassy back in the starting eleven. With a chance to go top on their own, the motivation’s obvious.
Expect Union to make it awkward for spells, especially early on. Over 90 minutes, though, the gap in quality should tell, and Dortmund’s attack has more than enough to get the job done.
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