- 1 Troyes vs Lens: a promoted side that’s stopped scoring against the Coupe de France holders
- 2 Troyes: 13 conceded in six and the full-backs have run out
- 3 Lens: Cahuzac still finding his feet, but the set-pieces are working
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Troyes vs Lens
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Troyes vs Lens: a promoted side that’s stopped scoring against the Coupe de France holders 
Four straight league defeats. Three without a goal. Troyes have gone from a bright start to the relegation zone in a month, and Lens are next through the door at the Stade de l’Aube on Saturday, 20:45 Paris time.
It started well enough for Stéphane Dumont’s side. A goalless draw with Paris FC and a 2-1 win at Lorient brought four points from two games. Since then: 6-2 at home to Strasbourg, 2-0 at Lille, 2-0 at Angers and 2-0 at home to Marseille.
That’s 13 goals conceded in six league games, the second-worst record in Ligue 1. For a team that let in only 33 across the whole of last season’s Ligue 2, the second-fewest in that division, the drop-off is brutal.
Lens aren’t exactly flying. They’re 10th, they changed coach in September, and they lost 2-0 at home to Sporting in the Champions League on Tuesday. But they won their last league game, 2-1 against Lyon, and they’ve got the stronger squad by a distance.
Can Troyes find a goal from anywhere? Their last home win over Lens came in a Ligue 2 game back in 2019.
The bookmakers have made their call. Lens are 1.76 to 1.80 depending on the operator, Troyes 3.90 at best.
Troyes: 13 conceded in six and the full-backs have run out 
Marseille came to the Aube last weekend and left with a comfortable 2-0. It pushed Troyes into the bottom three, second from bottom, two points from safety.
Another defeat on Saturday would equal their longest losing run from their last Ligue 1 campaign in 2022-23. And if they fail to score again, it’ll be four straight league games without a goal, something that hasn’t happened to them this decade.
The injury list hits the full-back positions hardest. Yvann Titi has missed five games on the right, Ismaël Boura hasn’t played at all this season because of a hip problem, and Anis Ouzenadji got hurt on duty with Algeria’s Under-23s. Yacouba Koné is also nursing a knee issue.
Up front, Le Douaron, signed from Palermo this summer, has one league goal. One. He’ll carry the attack again, and he badly needs help from the wide players.
There’s a sliver of hope in the head-to-head, with Troyes taking points in two of their last three home league games against Lens. But this squad can ill afford another blank, and nothing in the last four matches suggests the goals are about to return.
Still no home win this season. The Aube hasn’t been a fortress.
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Lens: Cahuzac still finding his feet, but the set-pieces are working 
Yannick Cahuzac took over from Dino Toppmöller in September, and it hasn’t been seamless. A 2-2 draw at Le Mans and a 2-1 defeat at Monaco came before last weekend’s 2-1 win against Lyon, the first victory of his reign.
The defence that was second-best in the league last season has shipped 10 in six this time, the joint-most of any team in the top half. Not what you’d expect from a side built on organisation.
Set-pieces are the bright spot. Three of their 11 league goals have come from dead balls, and they haven’t conceded one yet. Against a Troyes back line missing its full-backs, that could decide it.
Florian Thauvin is the key man: three goals and four assists in the league, including two assists against Lyon. He hasn’t scored in four matches in all competitions, but he’s creating every week. Edouard leads the line.
Absences matter. Matthieu Udol scored the winner against Lyon and was sent off eight minutes later, so he’s suspended. Maik Nawrocki is out with a cruciate ligament injury, Abdallah Sima (one goal, two assists) is out with a thigh problem, and Jhoanner Chavez and Gradit are doubts.
The Stade de l’Aube holds good memories. Lens are unbeaten in their last three visits, including a 4-2 Coupe de France win there last season on the way to lifting the trophy.
Probable lineup Troyes: Beach; Maronnier, Monfray, Diaz, Gozzi; Diop, Karim; Diawara, Ripart, Picard; Le Douaron
Probable lineup Lens: Risser; Gradit, Ganiou, Antonio; Aguilar, Bulatovic, Titraoui, Hazard; Thauvin, Sotoca; Edouard
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Troyes vs Lens
Our prediction: Lens to win (odds 1.76)
Troyes haven’t scored in three league games and have lost four in a row. Lens have quality in the final third, a set-piece threat that Troyes’ patched-up defence will struggle to handle, and a good record at this ground. The case builds quickly.
The Sporting defeat midweek is a factor, and Udol’s suspension takes a goal threat out of the left side. But Lens’ problems are about consistency. Troyes’ problems are about everything.
Thauvin’s creativity against a defence that’s conceded 13 in six is the matchup that settles this. We back Lens to win at 1.76.
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