- 1 Toulouse vs Strasbourg: 10 points each and an away defence that hasn’t held once
- 2 Toulouse: five goals conceded at home and 19 big chances missed
- 3 Strasbourg: 11 of their 17 league goals came in two games
- 4 Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Toulouse vs Strasbourg
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: 10 points each and an away defence that hasn’t held once 
Strasbourg have conceded at least twice in every Ligue 1 away game this season. They go to the Stadium de Toulouse on Friday 6 November, 19:45 UK time, with 10 points from nine matches, level with Toulouse and one place below them on goal difference.
The split between home and away is where we’d start. Toulouse have let in 13 league goals, and only five of those came at home. Strasbourg have conceded 19 and scored 17. That leaves Toulouse on a goal difference of minus one and Strasbourg on minus two, so the winner on Friday pulls three points clear of the other before anyone else in the division has played.
Strasbourg’s 5-1 win over Auxerre in their last league game ended four straight defeats, but it came at home. Their three most recent away league games finished 2-1 at Paris FC, 2-1 at Nice and 3-0 at Rennes, all defeats.
Toulouse carry the opposite worry. They haven’t scored in two league games, a 0-0 with Troyes and a 2-0 loss at Marseille in which they had six shots on target.
The two most recent league meetings went to Toulouse: 1-0 at home in December 2025 and 2-1 in Strasbourg on 3 May 2026. The longer record leans the other way, with seven Strasbourg wins to three in 14 meetings, and they’ve taken points from eight of their last nine trips here. We’d give more weight to this season’s defensive numbers. Toulouse are priced at 2.00, the draw at 3.70 and Strasbourg at 3.20.
Toulouse: five goals conceded at home and 19 big chances missed 
Toulouse have missed 19 big chances this season, the fourth-most in Ligue 1 after nine matchdays. That figure matters more to us than the two blanks, because it shows Jens Berthel Askou’s side are getting into scoring positions.
Before those two games they’d scored 10 goals in four league matches: 2-2 at Lorient, 3-2 against Le Havre, 2-2 at Monaco and 3-0 at Le Mans. Two of those were away draws against sides who scored twice, which fits the pattern of a team far looser on the road than at home.
Eight of the 13 league goals they’ve conceded came away from home. At their own ground the record is steadier, and they’ve taken points from their last four home meetings with Strasbourg, keeping a clean sheet in two of the last three.
Aron Donnum is suspended for Friday. Rafik Messali and goalkeeper Niflore are also out, while Abu Francis has a sore hamstring and Oppong is a doubt with a calf problem.
Selection has been settled until now. Toulouse have kept 85% of their starting eleven over the last six matches and named the same side for two in a row, so Donnum’s absence forces a rare change. Russell-Rowe and Tengstedt are expected to start up front against a back line that has conceded at least twice in every away league game.
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Strasbourg: 11 of their 17 league goals came in two games 
Strasbourg have scored more than once in only three league games this season, and only one of those was away, the 6-2 win at Troyes on matchday three. Add the 5-1 against Auxerre and two matches account for 11 of their 17 goals.
Gessime Yassine scored twice against Auxerre, with Martial Godo, Dario Essugo and Conrad Harder also on the scoresheet. Yassine, Harder and Godo are expected to start again, and that front three will have to do the job without Joaquin Panichelli, who has torn a cruciate ligament.
Fabio Balde is out as well, so Hugo Oliveira has lost two forwards. Nanasi and Doukoure are doubts, and Hermann Malonga, Deivid Washington and Maxi Oyedele are all questionable, which leaves the bench thin if the game needs changing.
There’s been more rotation here than at Toulouse. Strasbourg have kept 76% of their eleven over the last six matches, a figure that reflects a run of five league games without a win before Auxerre, starting with a 1-1 draw with Monaco.
In their favour, they’ve won two of the three league games in which they conceded first. They’re also three points above the relegation zone and two below the top half, so a point here wouldn’t be a bad result for them.
Probable lineup Toulouse: Restes; Diallo, McKenzie, Nicolaisen, Tape; Schmidt, Casseres, Sigur, Jorgensen; Russell-Rowe, Tengstedt
Probable lineup Strasbourg: Jorgensen; Doukoure, Hogsberg, Coulibaly, Oso; El Mourabet; Essugo, Reyna; Yassine, Harder, Godo
Free Ligue 1 Prediction: Toulouse vs Strasbourg
Our prediction: Toulouse to win at 2.00
We’re taking the home win on Friday night. Strasbourg have conceded twice or more in every away league game, and Toulouse have created enough chances this season to punish that, with 19 big chances missed and 10 goals in four games before the last two blanks.
The case against is Strasbourg’s record here, eight trips out of nine with points, plus the 12 goals in nine games that show Toulouse’s finishing can go cold. We’d still side with the team that has conceded five at home over the one that has lost three of its last three away.
Toulouse have won the last two league meetings, Strasbourg are without Panichelli and Balde, and 2.00 is a fair price for a side at home to a defence that has conceded 19 in nine league matches.
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