- 1 Sweden vs Romania: fifteen games without a clean sheet – the stat that sets the tone for the night in Solna
- 2 Sweden: a chopped-up back line and a defensive run that just will not end
- 3 Romania: a solid September and no absences to worry about
- 4 Football Prediction Sweden vs Romania
- 5 Before anything else, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Sweden vs Romania: fifteen games without a clean sheet – the stat that sets the tone for the night in Solna 
Sweden have not finished a match without conceding in 15 outings. No other number tells you quite as quickly how shaky the Scandinavians have been at the back ahead of this opener.
Romania are carrying the same flaw, just in less dramatic fashion: six straight games with at least one goal conceded. Those two numbers meet on Friday at Strawberry Arena in Solna.
Kick-off is set for Friday 25 September at 20:45 Paris time, in a 54,329-seat stadium. It is the opening game in Group 4 of League B, with Poland and Bosnia-Herzegovina also in the section.
The two sides arrive with very different momentum over the past month. Sweden come in off a 3-0 loss to France, while Romania beat Wales 2-1.
Recent head-to-head history, though, edges towards the Swedes. In the last four official meetings, Sweden have won two, Romania one, with one draw.
The FIFA rankings back that up without making it look like a mismatch. Sweden sit 37th, Romania 52nd, a gap of just 15 places.
The group context adds extra pressure to the occasion. With Poland and Bosnia in the same section, dropping points at home in the first game would hurt Sweden badly.
The two teams will meet again quickly, on 5 October at the Arena Nationala in Bucharest. That tight two-legged schedule over 10 days only increases the value of this first clash.
The big question hanging over the game is simple enough: can two such open defences really produce a tight, controlled contest?
The last two official meetings came in 2019 and both went the Scandinavians’ way, 2-0 in Romania and then 2-1 in Solna.
Strawberry Arena is no small stage either, with its 54,329 seats. The setting should push Sweden to take the initiative from the off.
Sweden: a chopped-up back line and a defensive run that just will not end 
Fifteen matches without a clean sheet is more than a year’s worth of internationals. That is not a brief wobble; it is a problem.
Recent results only reinforce the trend. The 5-1 defeat in the Netherlands and the 3-0 loss to France are the heaviest blows in the run.
Going forward, though, there is still something to work with. The 5-1 win over Tunisia and the 2-2 draw with Greece show there is still plenty of threat in this group.
The real issue is availability at the back. Isak Hien is out until early October with a hamstring injury.
Jacob Widell Zetterstrom is also sidelined, with a knee problem, and is not expected back until late October. That changes the goalkeeping pecking order for this camp.
Up front, the treatment room is hardly empty either. Anthony Elanga is set to miss out until mid-October, while Alexander Isak is also dealing with a thigh injury.
Losing your first-choice centre-half and your most decisive forward in the same week changes the balance of the side. The coach is going to have to patch things together at both ends.
That is why home advantage matters so much here. Solna is still a decent place to play, but this Sweden side cannot lean on a solid block and shut a game down late on.
The 2-2 draw with Greece at the start of the run already exposed the issue. Going ahead is no longer enough for this team to get across the line.
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Romania: a solid September and no absences to worry about 
Romania arrive in Solna with a full squad. No one is unavailable for this opener, which is a rare boost at this stage of the season.
Their most recent outing was a 2-1 win over Wales. That result straightens out a spell that had started badly.
The last five matches tell two stories. First came three games without a win, including a 1-0 defeat in Turkey and a 2-0 loss in Slovakia, then came the turnaround.
The 1-1 draw in Georgia was the turning point. The side stopped the bleeding on the road before finally winning at home.
Going forward, the 7-1 rout of San Marino obviously pads the numbers. Outside that, the return is more modest, with four goals in the other four matches.
Romania’s defence has its limits too, with six straight games without a clean sheet. On that score, the two teams are very similar.
The recent head-to-head record is another warning sign. Romania have not beaten Sweden in a run of meetings where the Scandinavians have had the upper hand.
But the key point is elsewhere: Romania arrive with a full-strength squad while Sweden are missing four players. That is exactly the sort of imbalance that makes an away trip manageable.
The schedule also helps the Romanians. Hosting Sweden again in Bucharest 10 days later means they can approach this first leg without needing to force the issue.
Expected Sweden line-up: Not available at time of publication.
Expected Romania line-up: Not available at time of publication.
Football Prediction Sweden vs Romania
Our tip: both teams to score
The defensive numbers point in the same direction. Fifteen games without a clean sheet for Sweden, six for Romania: neither side has shown much ability to shut things down this season.
Sweden’s absences only strengthen that view. Without Isak Hien at the back and with a reshuffled goalkeeping pecking order, the Solna defence does not look capable of silencing a Romania side at full strength.
Romania, meanwhile, have scored in each of their last five matches. Against a Sweden side that still carries a real attacking threat despite the holes at the back, both nets should bulge.
The call is straightforward: both sides find the net at Strawberry Arena.
The two-legged format over 10 days adds one more wrinkle. Neither team will want to leave Solna with a negative goal difference hanging over them.
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