- 1 Sweden vs Poland: sixteen games without a clean sheet, and Lewandowski is coming
- 2 Sweden Analysis
- 3 Poland Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Sweden vs Poland
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Sweden vs Poland: sixteen games without a clean sheet, and Lewandowski is coming 
Sweden have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 16 matches. That is the number that frames Monday night in Solna, where Poland arrive with Robert Lewandowski still hungry after a blank in Warsaw.
The game kicks off on Monday 28 September at 20h45 Paris time at the Strawberry Arena. It is the second round of League B Group 4, and the table already has a clear shape.
Sweden lead the group with three points after a 2-1 win over Romania on Friday. Poland sit on one point after a 0-0 draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina at the Stadion Narodowy.
The two sides met most recently in a five-goal game won 3-2 by Sweden. Poland took the meeting before that 2-0, but Sweden have won five of the last six head-to-heads.
Bookmakers see a home win as the most likely outcome, pricing Sweden at around 1.91. That price is short enough to make the result market unattractive, and the goals angle far more interesting.
Both teams scored in three of the last six meetings. Add Sweden’s leaky defence and a Poland attack that has scored nine goals in its last six games, and the script writes itself.
Sweden Analysis 
Sweden opened their campaign with a 2-1 win over Romania on Friday. Alexander Isak scored in the 20th minute after running onto a through ball from Yasin Ayari, and Viktor Gyokeres restored the lead two minutes before half-time.
The win was not clean. Dennis Man volleyed Romania level on the counter in the 29th minute, and Elliot Stroud had a third goal ruled out by VAR for a handball by Isak in the build-up.
That goal against is part of a long pattern. Sweden have conceded 13 goals in their last six internationals, including a 3-0 defeat to France and a 1-1 draw with Japan.
Their matches almost always open up. Seven of Sweden’s last eight games have gone over 2.5 goals, and each of their last three home matches has gone over 3.5.
The front line explains why they can still win those games. Gyokeres has three goals in his most recent national team outings, and Isak gives Sweden a second finisher of the highest level.
There is one worry on the right flank. Emil Holm was stretchered off against Romania, and his absence would weaken a defence that already struggles to hold a line.
Home form is solid rather than dominant. Sweden have won six of their last ten matches at the Strawberry Arena, and both teams scored in seven of their last ten home games.
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Poland Analysis 
Poland have not won in their last three matches. They lost 2-0 to Ukraine, drew 2-2 with Nigeria and were held 0-0 by Bosnia and Herzegovina on Friday.
The Bosnia game was frustrating for Lewandowski. Bosnia’s back line, led by Nikola Katic, shut down the Polish forwards and created a game with very few clear chances.
That blank looks like an exception in the bigger picture. Poland have scored nine goals in their last six internationals, and four of their last five matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
The defence is the problem again. Poland conceded ten goals over those same six games, which puts them almost level with Sweden in terms of goals shipped.
Lewandowski remains the reference in attack. He has scored twice in his last six matches for Poland and will face a Swedish defence that has not kept a clean sheet since the start of this long run.
The away record gives another clue. Both teams scored in seven of Poland’s last ten away games, and Poland have won three of their last ten matches on the road.
A draw in Warsaw leaves Poland under pressure in the group. They need goals in Solna, and that need will push them forward against a Sweden side that leaves space behind.
Probable lineup Sweden: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Poland: Not announced at time of publication
Free Football Prediction: Sweden vs Poland
Our prediction: Both teams to score
Sweden have gone 16 games without a clean sheet, and both teams scored in seven of their last ten home matches. Poland mirror that away from home, with both teams scoring in seven of their last ten road trips.
Isak and Gyokeres give Sweden goals, while Lewandowski has a defence in front of him that concedes in every single game. The two sides have shipped 23 goals between them in their last six internationals each.
Sweden are favourites for the win, but the smart play is goals at both ends. Both teams to score is our pick.
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