- 1 Stade Toulousain vs Montpellier Herault Rugby: June’s final played out again three months later
- 2 Stade Toulousain: 48 points against UBB and the old swagger is back
- 3 Montpellier Herault Rugby: four wins from their last five away games
- 4 Rugby prediction Stade Toulousain vs Montpellier Herault Rugby
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Stade Toulousain vs Montpellier Herault Rugby: June’s final played out again three months later 
On June 27, Stade Toulousain beat Montpellier 28-20 in the Top 14 final. Three months on, almost to the day, the same two teams meet again.
The fixture is set for Sunday, September 27 at 21h05, at Stade Ernest-Wallon. Canal+ will show it, the only game scheduled for Sunday in this fourth round.
The other six matches are on Saturday, which leaves this one carrying the full weight of the weekend. The league will already have handed out half its early answers by the time these two walk out.
Stade Toulousain sit second with ten points, Montpellier fifth with nine. Just one point separates the French champions from June’s runners-up, and both are chasing LOU Rugby, the surprise pace-setter at the start of the season.
Both clubs arrive on the back of two straight wins. Neither has lost since the opening round, and both passed 40 points in their last home game.
Adrien Marbot will referee the match, with Cyrille Boulay and Julien Caulier on the lines. Julien Castaignede is on video duty, with Tom Sournac and Alexandre Pujo-Aizpuru as fourth and fifth officials.
The recent record leaves little room for doubt. Stade Toulousain have won four of the last five meetings in all competitions.
The one exception came on September 20, 2025, a 44-14 hammering at GGL Stadium. It is also Montpellier’s last win against the Red and Black, and that is now a year ago.
Both sides come in off a hard-fought run to the finish line. Toulouse smashed Racing 92 71-17 in the semi-final on June 19, while Montpellier knocked out Stade Francais 25-15 the next day.
Stade Toulousain: 48 points against UBB and the old swagger is back 
Toulouse put 48 points on Union Bordeaux-Begles on September 13, in their only home game of the season. Eight tries scored, two conceded, and a bonus point tucked away for good measure.
That says plenty about what Ernest-Wallon can do when the machine is ticking. UBB came into that round top of the table and left with the heaviest beating of their season so far.
The home numbers speak for themselves after just one outing. An average of 48 points, eight tries scored and two conceded, one bonus point from one game.
The next outing was much tougher. At Stade de la Rabine on September 19, Toulouse had to settle for a 29-23 win at the bottom side, with no bonus.
Their only slip of the season came in round one. La Rochelle stunned the champions 30-27 at Marcel-Deflandre on September 6 in a game that went right down to the wire.
Ten points from three rounds is hardly a disaster for a club that has lifted four straight Brennus Shields. Nothing spectacular, but nothing to panic about either.
Toulouse’s real strength is still what they do at home. Four wins from their last five Top 14 home games, with only one stumble.
That stumble came against Clermont, who won 27-24 at Ernest-Wallon on April 26. They are the only side to have left Toulouse with a win this calendar year.
Since then, Toulouse have put 68 on Montauban in February, 45 on Montpellier in March and 39 on Lyon at the end of May. Big home scores have become the norm.
That is the key point. Montpellier have visited Ernest-Wallon twice since January 2025 and left beaten 27-17 and 45-29, before losing the final.
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Montpellier Herault Rugby: four wins from their last five away games 
Montpellier have won four of their last five Top 14 away matches. The only defeat in that run came at Ernest-Wallon, 45-29 on March 28.
That detail matters when they head back to the same patch of grass. The Herault side know how to travel, but this ground keeps giving them grief.
Another number is worth a look. Three of those four away wins were by three points or less, 28-25 at Lyon, 36-33 at Castres and 23-21 at Bordeaux.
So Montpellier can win on the road, but only by the skin of their teeth. That is not exactly the most comforting profile when you are heading to the French champions.
Their only away trip this season went well enough. Vannes were beaten 26-12 on September 12, with three Montpellier tries and two conceded.
The next round backed up the attacking uptick. Perpignan shipped 50 points at GGL Stadium on September 19, with a bonus point to go with it.
But the start was shaky. Pau went to Montpellier on opening day and won 27-19 on September 5.
Nine points from three rounds puts them one point behind Stade Toulousain. The table gap does not tell the full story at all when you look at the recent history between them.
The weak spot is clear: no bonus points away from home this season. Montpellier bring back wins, never much margin.
The comparison with their hosts is brutal. Stade Toulousain scored eight tries in their only home game, Montpellier managed three in their only away trip.
Probable Stade Toulousain line-up: Not announced at the time of publication.
Probable Montpellier Herault Rugby line-up: Not announced at the time of publication.
Rugby prediction Stade Toulousain vs Montpellier Herault Rugby
Our prediction: Stade Toulousain to win with a -7.5 handicap
Montpellier’s last two trips to Ernest-Wallon ended 27-17 and 45-29. In both cases, the final margin was well beyond the seven-point line asked for here.
The numbers point the same way. Toulouse scored eight tries in their only home game this season, while Montpellier have not taken a single bonus point on the road.
The profile of Montpellier’s away wins strengthens the case. Three of their last four away victories were by three points or less, a script that looks shaky against a side that can rack up 48 in an afternoon.
Backing Toulouse to win outright is too expensive on its own. The -7.5 handicap gives you the same idea and pays out on the version that makes most sense.
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