- 1 Stade Toulousain vs ASM Clermont: four home wins from four against a side that’s lost all four away
- 2 Stade Toulousain: top of the table, unbeaten at home and short of bodies
- 3 ASM Clermont: four defeats ended by Plummer, and nothing to show away from home
- 4 Free Rugby Prediction: Stade Toulousain vs ASM Clermont
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Stade Toulousain vs ASM Clermont: four home wins from four against a side that’s lost all four away 
Clermont won the last meeting between these clubs, 27-24 at Toulouse. The four results before that all went to Toulouse, including a 48-14 at home and a 35-18 at Marcel-Michelin.
The return to the Stade Ernest-Wallon comes on Saturday 7 November, 13:30 UK time, with Ludovic Cayre refereeing. Toulouse are top of the Top 14 on 28 points, one ahead of Bordeaux-Bègles and two ahead of Pau, the team that beat them 34-14 on Sunday.
Clermont are tenth with 16 points after three wins from eight. They’ve lost all four away games this season, at Lyon, Bayonne, La Rochelle and bottom club Vannes.
The result at Pau is the reason this isn’t a formality. Toulouse named only 23 players on the team sheet because of injuries, five more were protected at the French camp in Marcoussis, and Anthony Jelonch went off with a concussion.
The prices are 1.27 Toulouse and 3.85 Clermont, and I don’t want either of them at those numbers, so the pick goes on the winning margin.
Stade Toulousain: top of the table, unbeaten at home and short of bodies 
Four home matches, four wins. Bordeaux-Bègles, Montpellier, Bayonne and Perpignan have all lost at Ernest-Wallon, and three of those four are in the top half of the table.
Sunday was the bad day of the season. Facundo Isa scored after seven minutes, Tumua Manu added a second at 12 and Pau led 17-0 before Thomas Lacombre got Toulouse on the board just before half-time.
Lukas Amati’s try at 48 minutes cut it to 17-14, and that’s the part of the game worth keeping. Isa’s second try at 58 minutes settled it, and the defeat ended a run of six straight league wins.
Toulouse have scored 249 points in eight games and conceded 191, and that points difference of +58 is third best in the league behind Montpellier and Bordeaux-Bègles. Four bonus points have helped keep them top.
Selection is the unknown. Jelonch failed his head injury assessment, so the return-to-play protocol is the first thing to check when the team goes in, and the injury list was longer than Pau’s on Sunday.
Paul Mallez and Cyril Baille both came on around the hour at Pau and could start here. With France’s autumn matches close, the protected list will decide how much experience Toulouse have left.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
ASM Clermont: four defeats ended by Plummer, and nothing to show away from home 
Clermont’s 37-30 win over Racing 92 ended a run of four straight defeats in all competitions. Harrison Plummer converted all four tries and kicked three penalties for 17 points, and Clermont led 17-13 at half-time at Marcel-Michelin.
The tries came from Kylan Hamdaoui, Pita-Gus Sowakula, Nohem Ez Zahouany and Barnabé Massa, so the scoring wasn’t down to one player. Racing, 13th in the table, still crossed three times and scored 30.
That’s the difficulty for Clermont. They’ve conceded 226 points in eight games, more than 28 a match, and Toulouse have averaged more than 31 scored.
The win also came in a tense week. Christophe Urios read out a prepared statement at his press conference the day before the game and refused questions about Racing, and the result gave Clermont some air, five points clear of 13th place.
Four bonus points from three wins and five defeats is a useful detail. Only Toulon have more, and it’s the strongest evidence that Clermont can stay in games they go on to lose.
The away record is what I keep coming back to. Vannes have won one league game all season, and it was against Clermont.
Probable lineup Stade Toulousain: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup ASM Clermont: Not announced at time of publication
Free Rugby Prediction: Stade Toulousain vs ASM Clermont
Our prediction: Stade Toulousain to win by 8 points or more
Four home wins from four against four away defeats from four is as clean a split as this league offers. I’d back Toulouse to bounce back from Pau and win by more than a converted try, and I’d leave the 1.27 alone. No handicap line was available at the time of writing, so check the price before kick-off.
Toulouse’s absences are the honest concern, and Clermont won here last time. The difference this season is that Clermont’s defence is letting in 28 a game, and a Toulouse side with something to prove after Sunday won’t need its full-strength fifteen to get there.
A score around 34-20 looks right to me, with the bonus point in play if the home side gets ahead early.
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
_________
About our free predictions
- What we publish on MathOdds are analyses, nothing more. We share a view, a reading of the moment, but never a guarantee. Sport remains what it is: unpredictable. A red card, an injury, a last-minute goal, and the script changes completely.
- Let’s be clear: there is no such thing as a risk-free bet. Even when it looks “obvious”, nothing ever is. And yes, that means you can lose. It’s even inevitable at some point.
- The smartest approach is to stay reasonable. Bet small, set a budget and stick to it. Never use money you need to live on. And above all: don’t chase your losses: that rarely ends well.
- A bet should remain a game, not a job or a source of income. If it starts taking up too much space in your daily life, causes stress or frustration, take a break. And if needed, talk to a support organisation: that’s what they’re there for.
- Ultimately, responsibility lies with you. Reading our content means accepting that risk exists and will never disappear, no matter how good the analysis.
- Essential reminder: gambling is prohibited for minors and must comply with the laws of your country. Need help? Visit begambleaware.org.
No commitment from us
Our predictions carry no contractual value. They have no legal standing. In short: you cannot rely on them to claim anything if a bet doesn’t come through.
Information changes
A prediction is always based on what we know at the time of writing. But between publication and kick-off, a lineup can change, a player picks up an injury, the weather turns, and the analysis can quickly be outdated. We cannot be held responsible for that.
Your responsibility
Before placing a bet, simply check that gambling is legal in your country. If it isn’t, that’s your responsibility, not ours.
Responsible gambling
We can’t say it enough: gamble responsibly. If you’re struggling to stay in control, don’t wait to seek help.
Legal age
MathOdds content is intended for adults only. By browsing here, you confirm you meet the legal age requirement for gambling in your jurisdiction.
About visuals
The images and logos of Stade Toulousain and ASM Clermont on MathOdds are used solely to illustrate our articles. They do not imply any official affiliation with a federation or sports organisation, and we claim no rights over them. Those rights belong to their original owners. If any visual raises a concern, contact us and it will be removed without delay.
Leave a Reply