- 1 Stade Francais Paris vs LOU Rugby : 54 points against 139, a huge attacking gap in round 4
- 2 Stade Francais Paris : solid enough at the back, stuck in neutral up front
- 3 LOU Rugby : three wins, 139 points and a red-hot Simmonds
- 4 Rugby Prediction Stade Francais Paris vs LOU Rugby
- 5 First up, a word on our free tips
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information can change
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Stade Francais Paris vs LOU Rugby : 54 points against 139, a huge attacking gap in round 4 
The weakest attack in the Top 14 hosts the best: 54 points scored by Stade Francais, 139 by LOU Rugby. That is an 85-point chasm in just three games.
The meeting takes place at Stade Jean-Bouin on Saturday 26 September at 16:35. Eleventh against first, 4 points against 14.
LOU are the only side still unbeaten in the elite, with three wins from three and two bonus points to their name. Nobody else has a perfect record at this stage.
Stade Francais are on the flip side, with one win followed by two defeats and not a single bonus point. Their last outing ended in a 40-10 hammering in Bordeaux.
One figure does, however, put a different light on the mismatch. The Parisians have conceded 91 points since the start of the season, Lyon 92, which leaves the two defences level on the numbers.
So the real battle is in one area only: finishing. Stade Francais can defend well enough but cannot score, while LOU give plenty away and still know how to punish teams.
The table tells the same story: eleventh, five points off the top six, for the Parisians; first, four points clear, for the Lyon side. These clubs are chasing very different targets right now.
Ten points separate the teams, the equivalent of two bonus wins. It is the biggest points gap of round four.
Stade Francais Paris : solid enough at the back, stuck in neutral up front 
54 points in three rounds: no Top 14 club has done worse than Stade Francais in that department. That works out at an average of 18 points per game, well below the usual line for winning in the elite.
The scoring drought shows up clearly in the table, with 4 points and an eleventh-place spot. No attacking bonus, no defensive bonus since the season kicked off.
Yet the Paris defence is doing enough to create the illusion of balance, with 91 points conceded, the eighth-best total in the league. The issue is not keeping games close. It is doing something with them.
Round 3 confirmed that trend in the worst possible way. Beaten 40-10 in Bordeaux by UBB, the Paris club crossed the line only once all night.
The statistical breakdown from that third round also shows a high penalty count for the Parisians, according to Rugbyrama. That kind of sloppiness hands easy ball to an opponent that can score from anywhere.
Hosting the leaders at Jean-Bouin is a chance to restart the season, but the task is still brutal. Without a sharp lift in the opposition 22, Stade Francais will not last the pace.
The Parisians are level on 4 points with Racing 92 in 12th. Those two sides bring up the rear among the teams that have at least picked up one win.
An average of 18 points per game is the worst attacking return in the elite. At that rate, the club hardly ever gives itself a real shot at winning a Top 14 match.
Stade Francais won their opener before losing the next two. The slide began straight away in round two.
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LOU Rugby : three wins, 139 points and a red-hot Simmonds 
LOU sit top of the Top 14 with 14 points, built on three wins and two bonus points. No other side in the elite has matched that perfect start for outright success.
Their 139 points scored are the best attacking return in the league, 17 clear of Section Paloise in second on that metric. They are averaging more than 46 points a game.
Round 3 showed that firepower off nicely: 51-25 against Pau, with the bonus point secured. LOU put more than 50 points on a side sitting in the top five at the time.
Sam Simmonds stood out as one of the men of round three in Rugbyrama’s statistical review. The England back-rower is right at the heart of Lyon’s attacking output.
There is a weak spot, though, with 92 points conceded and a ninth-place defensive ranking. Lyon are winning by outscoring teams, not by shutting them down.
That profile suits Paris badly. Against a side averaging just 18 points a game, Lyon’s defensive looseness looks a lot less damaging.
LOU are four points ahead of Stade Toulousain and UBB, their nearest chasers, both on 10. The gap is already serious after only three rounds.
With 139 points scored, Lyon have produced 85 more than Saturday’s opponents. That is close to five Paris matches’ worth of output.
Probable Stade Francais Paris team: Not announced at the time of publication.
Probable LOU Rugby team: Not announced at the time of publication.
Rugby Prediction Stade Francais Paris vs LOU Rugby
Our prediction: LOU Rugby to win
LOU are the only unbeaten side in the Top 14 and have the best attack in the league with 139 points in three rounds. By contrast, Stade Francais have the worst attack in the elite with 54 points.
Lyon’s defence is still far from watertight, but they are up against the least productive attack in the league, one that could not reach more than ten points in its last outing. The Paris penalty count from round 3 also hands cheap field position to a side that knows how to cash in.
Lyon have every chance to make it four straight wins. We are backing LOU Rugby.
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