St. Louis Blues vs Florida Panthers – Free NHL Prediction – Nov 14

St. Louis Blues vs Florida Panthers: two penalty kills above 84% and a Florida lineup missing Barkov and Marchand

Florida kill 85.7% of the penalties they take and St. Louis kill 84.4%. When two teams are that good shorthanded, the game tends to be settled at five-on-five, and that’s where the Blues’ home form and the Panthers’ injury list start to matter.

The game is on Saturday 14 November at Enterprise Center, puck drop 7:00pm ET. It’s the first of two meetings this season, with the return in Florida on 22 December.

Florida are 9-7-2 and have lost two straight, 4-3 in Washington and 4-1 in Boston. They’re playing without Aleksander Barkov, on injured reserve with a knee injury and not expected back before late November, and without Brad Marchand, also on IR with a knee problem. Sandis Vilmanis and Jonah Gadjovich are out as well.

St. Louis are 7-8-2, below .500 on points, but the split explains most of it. The Blues are 4-2-1 at home and 3-6-1 on the road, and their three most recent defeats all came away from home: 3-1 against the Rangers, 5-4 in New Jersey and 3-1 in Nashville.

Before that trip they beat Boston 4-1 at home and won 5-4 in Detroit. The Bruins have lost once at TD Garden all season, so the 4-1 result over them is the best single performance St. Louis have put together this autumn.

St. Louis Blues: Hofer’s 2.36 and a 4-2-1 home record

Joel Hofer has taken the St. Louis crease. He’s started 12 games, gone 6-5-1 and allowed 2.36 goals per game, while Jordan Binnington has played five times and sits at 1-3-1 with a 4.27 goals-against average.

That split matters more than the team’s overall 3.12 goals against suggests. With Hofer in net, the Blues have been a tighter side than their record shows, and the Binnington starts have dragged the team average up.

The scoring comes from younger players. Jimmy Snuggerud leads the team with 9 goals, and Philip Broberg leads with 9 assists and 13 points from defence. St. Louis average 2.94 goals per game, the lower figure of the two teams.

The shot numbers are a concern. The Blues allow 28.8 shots per game and take 27.1, so they’re outshot most nights, and Florida’s 29.5 shots per game is above that average.

Torey Krug is out for the season with an ankle injury, Dillon Dube is on injured reserve with a neck problem until early December, and Tyler Tucker has a knee injury with a return date of 12 November. The St. Louis blue line is thinner without Krug, but Broberg’s 13 points have covered the offensive side of that loss.

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Florida Panthers: two Tkachuks, no Bobrovsky, and a road record of 5-5-2

Brady Tkachuk arrived from Ottawa on 21 June and has a team-high 10 goals. His brother Matthew leads Florida with 22 assists and 26 points, and the two of them sit at the top of a 3.11 goals-per-game attack.

The goaltending is new. Sergei Bobrovsky signed with Toronto on 1 July, and Florida replaced him with Jacob Markstrom, acquired from New Jersey on 30 June, and Akira Schmid, acquired from Vegas on 29 June. Markstrom is 4-3-1 with a 2.74 goals-against average, and Schmid is 5-3-1 with a 3.00.

Neither has stood out, and Florida concede 3.06 goals per game despite allowing only 25.3 shots. Opponents need only about eight shots per goal against this pair.

The power play converts at 23.5%, the best figure in this game, but it meets a penalty kill at 84.4%. The Panthers’ own 85.7% kill is the strongest unit on the ice, and St. Louis convert 22.4% of their chances against it.

Barkov’s knee keeps him out until around 27 November and Marchand’s until around 21 November, so both miss this trip. The Tkachuks have 36 goals and assists between them, and Florida need that output with two senior forwards in the stands.

Probable lineup St. Louis Blues: Not announced at time of publication (Joel Hofer has made 12 of 17 starts)
Probable lineup Florida Panthers: Not announced at time of publication (Jacob Markstrom or Akira Schmid)

Free NHL Prediction: St. Louis Blues vs Florida Panthers

Our prediction: St. Louis Blues to win

I’m going against the bigger names here. St. Louis are 4-2-1 at home, Hofer’s 2.36 is the best goals-against average of the four goaltenders likely to play, and Florida arrive on two straight defeats without Barkov or Marchand.

The Tkachuks are the reason this isn’t a stronger call. Matthew’s 22 assists and Brady’s 10 goals can win a game on their own, and Florida’s 23.5% power play is better than anything St. Louis have.

With both penalty kills above 84%, special teams are likely to cancel each other out, which leaves goaltending and home ice. The Blues have the edge in both, and that’s enough for the pick.

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