- 1 San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder: the Game 7 rematch opens the season
- 2 San Antonio Spurs: eight wins from twelve against OKC last season and a settled core
- 3 Oklahoma City Thunder: the MVP is back, but Joe, Dort and Wiggins aren’t
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder: the Game 7 rematch opens the season 
The last time these two met in a game that counted, San Antonio won Game 7 of the Western Conference finals 111-103 in Oklahoma City. The Thunder had led that series 3-2. Tuesday’s season opener at the Frost Bank Center, tip-off 9:30pm ET, is the first meeting since.
That win sent the Spurs to the Finals, where the New York Knicks beat them 4-1 and closed it out 94-90 in San Antonio on 13 June. Oklahoma City finished with the league’s best record and best net rating for a second straight season, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander collected a second straight MVP award. They didn’t get a second straight ring.
The regular season pointed the same way as the playoffs. San Antonio won four of the five meetings in 2025-26, then four of seven in May. Count both and the Spurs took eight of twelve games against the team with the best record in basketball.
The prices for Tuesday reflect that, if only just. San Antonio sit between 1.73 and 1.77 on the moneyline, Oklahoma City between 2.11 and 2.20, with the spread set at 1.5 to 2.5 points and the total between 228.5 and 231.5.
Both franchises open the futures market as near co-favourites, the Spurs at 3.70 for the title and the Thunder at 3.50 to 3.60. The difference is the summer: one kept its group together and added a veteran forward; the other let three rotation players walk to free up cap space. I think that gap shows up on night one.
San Antonio Spurs: eight wins from twelve against OKC last season and a settled core 
Victor Wembanyama starts the season as the shortest price on the MVP board at 3.00, ahead of Gilgeous-Alexander at 4.75. Last season he ranked first in the league in estimated plus-minus and in estimated defensive plus-minus.
The front office kept the group intact. Champagnie, Barnes and Wembanyama all signed extensions over the summer, and the only new face is Tobias Harris, who arrived from Detroit for depth. Harris is listed as doubtful for Tuesday, so that extra bench option may have to wait a few days.
The expected starting five is Fox, Harper, Castle, Vassell and Wembanyama. That’s the core that beat Portland 4-1, Minnesota 4-2 and the Thunder 4-3 on the way to the Finals.
Preseason was mixed: defeats to Atlanta (123-116), Phoenix and Utah, wins over Phoenix 123-103 and Sacramento 126-97. I wouldn’t read much into exhibition minutes for a rotation that has already played 20-odd playoff games together.
The season win total is set at 60.5, one game below Oklahoma City’s 61.5. The bookmakers rate these as two sides of near-identical strength over 82 games, and on Tuesday the home floor tips the price San Antonio’s way.
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Oklahoma City Thunder: the MVP is back, but Joe, Dort and Wiggins aren’t 
Oklahoma City moved on three rotation players this summer: Isaiah Joe, Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins. Joe has gone to Detroit. The departures created cap space, and no new arrivals have come in to take those minutes.
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points last season and scored 35 with nine assists in Game 7. He wasn’t the reason they lost that series. Chet Holmgren took two shots in the deciding game.
Absences shaped the Western finals more than anything. Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell both missed a large part of the series, and the hope is that both are fit for Tuesday. Williams and Isaiah Hartenstein also signed extensions over the summer, so the top of the rotation is locked in.
Two preseason defeats stand out: 116-110 to New Orleans on 7 October and 116-89 in Houston on 16 October, the Thunder’s last outing before the opener.
A price of up to 2.20 on the defending best regular-season team is rare, and that’s the case for backing them. Their bench is thinner than it was in May, though, and they’re on the road against the side that beat them eight times in twelve last season.
Probable lineup San Antonio Spurs: Fox, Harper, Castle, Vassell, Wembanyama
Probable lineup Oklahoma City Thunder: Not announced at time of publication (Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, Mitchell, Holmgren and Hartenstein are the expected core)
Free NBA Prediction: San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Our prediction: San Antonio Spurs to win (1.76)
San Antonio won four of five regular-season meetings and the Game 7 that mattered most. The rotation that did it is back unchanged, with Harris added once he’s fit, and they’re at home.
Oklahoma City’s top end is as good as anyone’s, and Gilgeous-Alexander can win a game on his own. But Joe, Dort and Wiggins have gone, nobody has come in, and the bench that carried them to the best record in the league is three players lighter. Two preseason defeats in the last fortnight, one of them by 27 points, don’t suggest a group that has solved that yet.
I’d take the Spurs on the moneyline at 1.76 rather than lay the 1.5 or 2.5 points. A one-possession finish is the likeliest shape of this game, and the moneyline covers it.
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