- 1 San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets: a Spurs home game in Austin, and a Rockets team that led by 32 at halftime
- 2 San Antonio Spurs: Wembanyama missed his first 12 shots, and Fox’s wrist is a question mark
- 3 Houston Rockets: 30 each from Durant and Smith, and VanVleet back after a year out
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
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San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets: a Spurs home game in Austin, and a Rockets team that led by 32 at halftime 
San Antonio’s home game on Friday isn’t in San Antonio. The Spurs play Houston at the Moody Center in Austin, the ninth regular-season game they’ve staged there since 2023, and the first time another Texas NBA team has been the opponent. Tip-off is 9:30pm ET, 8:30pm local, on Prime Video.
The venue matters because of who’s coming. Kevin Durant has long-standing ties to Austin, and one Houston beat writer suggested the night could feel more like a road game for the Spurs than a home one. San Antonio is 5-3 in previous games at the Moody Center.
The two openers went in opposite directions. Houston beat Dallas 128-110, leading 70-38 at halftime after winning the second quarter 38-12, with Durant and Jabari Smith Jr. scoring 30 each. San Antonio lost 116-104 to Oklahoma City in a rematch of last season’s Western Conference finals, trailing by 26 at one point.
Even so, the Spurs are favoured by 5.5 points at most books, with the moneyline around 1.46 to 1.50 and Houston at about 2.72 to 2.80. The total is 226.5. Some books have moved the spread to 6.5 or 7.5, but 5.5 remains the consensus figure.
Both teams go into a back-to-back after this one. San Antonio plays Dallas on Saturday and Houston travels to Atlanta, so neither has a scheduling edge. San Antonio won last season’s series 3-1, including a 145-120 win on 8 March, though Houston has taken six of the last ten meetings.
San Antonio Spurs: Wembanyama missed his first 12 shots, and Fox’s wrist is a question mark 
The Spurs reached the Finals last season, beating Portland, Minnesota and Oklahoma City before losing 4-1 to the Knicks. Mitch Johnson kept the core and added Tobias Harris on a two-year deal, plus Billy Donovan as lead assistant.
Tuesday’s loss to the Thunder showed how much this team depends on Victor Wembanyama’s shooting. He finished with 12 points on 1-of-13, missing his first 12 attempts, though he still took 13 rebounds and blocked six shots. San Antonio shot 29.2% in the first half and 38.7% for the game, with 27% from three.
The guards carried what offence there was. Stephon Castle scored 24 with seven rebounds, Dylan Harper added 18 points, seven rebounds and five assists, and De’Aaron Fox posted 14 points, seven rebounds and seven assists on 6-of-9. Johnson has been working on a three-guard group of Fox, Castle and Harper.
Fox is listed as questionable with a right wrist sprain, and Keldon Johnson is questionable after a mouth laceration. Harris is out with a calf strain and rookie Jayden Quaintance is recovering from knee surgery. If Fox sits, more of the ball-handling falls on Castle and Harper, both of whom have shown they can manage it.
The betting history at home is mixed. San Antonio has lost its last three games as a home favourite and failed to cover its last four at home, but it has covered six straight home games against Houston after a loss.
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Houston Rockets: 30 each from Durant and Smith, and VanVleet back after a year out 
Fred VanVleet missed all of last season with a torn ACL. On Wednesday he scored only six points, but handed out 11 assists with three steals and no turnovers, and Houston’s offence ran more smoothly with him organising it.
The scoring came from the frontcourt. Durant made 10 of 16 shots for 30 points, Smith went 11-of-17 for 30 in 36 minutes, and Alperen Sengun added 23 points, 10 rebounds and five assists. Houston shot over 53% from the field and 44.4% from three, and turned 21 Dallas turnovers into 32 points.
Ime Udoka’s starting five of VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Durant, Smith and Sengun is the same group that should start on Friday. The summer added depth rather than starters, with Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic arriving, and Thompson signed a five-year extension in September.
There are two health questions. Steven Adams (calf) and Reed Sheppard (knee) are both day-to-day, and Tari Eason was ejected for a flagrant 2 in the first quarter on Wednesday, though no source lists him as suspended.
This is Houston’s first road game of the season. The Rockets have covered seven of their last eight road games on the first night of a back-to-back against Western Conference teams, and the Under has landed in their last four games as underdogs.
Probable lineup San Antonio Spurs: Not announced at time of publication (likely built around De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper and Victor Wembanyama)
Probable lineup Houston Rockets: Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun
Free NBA Prediction: San Antonio Spurs vs Houston Rockets
Our prediction: Houston Rockets +5.5 at 1.89
A 5.5-point line gives San Antonio credit for last season’s Finals run and for home court, and I’m not sure the home court applies in Austin against Durant. Houston arrives after its most complete performance in a while, with three players scoring 23 or more and a point guard back from a year out.
Wembanyama won’t shoot 1-of-13 again often, and a bounce-back night from him is the obvious risk to this pick. San Antonio is also the more talented team over a full season, which is why the moneyline still favours them.
The spread is a different question. With Fox questionable, Harris out and the Spurs 0-4 ATS in their last four home games, Houston +5.5 at 1.89 is the pick, and the Rockets moneyline at around 2.75 is worth a look for a smaller stake.
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