Zero point five four
That is the whole gap. 0.54 ranking points between South Africa and New Zealand going into Saturday’s third Test of Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry at FNB Stadium in Soweto.
Three weekends, three fights over the same piece of ground. The Boks surrendered top spot at Ellis Park in the opener. They snatched it straight back in Cape Town. Now they walk into Soweto holding it by a fingernail.
World Rugby put out the permutations on Thursday and they leave no room for interpretation. If the All Blacks win, they are No. 1 again. By one point or by forty, it makes no difference.
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Nothing like this since October 2003
The rankings have run since October 2003. The top spot has never changed hands three weekends running. A New Zealand win in Soweto writes that into the record book for the first time.
The venue offers South Africa no comfort either. The All Blacks have played twice at FNB Stadium and won twice, 29-22 in 2010 and 32-16 in 2012, in the bowl built for the World Cup 16 years ago.
The projections run like this. A Bok win by 15 or fewer stretches the lead to 2.43. Win by more than 15 and it becomes 3.38. New Zealand by more than 15 gives Dave Rennie’s side a 2.62-point cushion. A draw keeps South Africa in front but shaves 0.05 off. Whatever happens, neither team finishes the weekend below second.
Mendoza, Niigata and the rest of the ladder
Argentina host Australia. The Pumas slid out of seventh last weekend in Jujuy and need a win to climb back. A draw is worthless to them, and even a thumping will not carry them past seventh.
Australia have their own target: sixth, currently Scotland’s. The price is a win by more than 15 points.
Japan face Canada in Niigata, and the 14.99-point gulf between 24th and the hosts means Japan gain nothing from winning, however wide the scoreline. Canada are the ones with everything to play for. Beat Japan by more than 15 and they reach 21st, their highest since September 2024, dropping Romania to the lowest position the country has ever held. Lose, and Japan fall to 13th with Georgia climbing over them.
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