- 1 Southampton vs Portsmouth: a perfect home record meets a 21-year derby hoodoo
- 2 Southampton: the only perfect home record in the Championship, and Larin is fit
- 3 Portsmouth: three games unbeaten, but a long injury list and a ground they’ve never won at
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Southampton vs Portsmouth
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Southampton vs Portsmouth: a perfect home record meets a 21-year derby hoodoo 
Four home league games, four wins, and at least three goals scored in every one of them. That’s what Southampton bring to St Mary’s on Sunday for the first south coast derby of the 2026-27 Championship season.
The catch? Southampton haven’t beaten Portsmouth in a league game since November 2004. Dexter Blackstock and Kevin Phillips scored that day. Since then, the last four EFL meetings between these two have all finished level, including a goalless draw at St Mary’s in September 2025 and a 1-1 at Fratton Park in January, when Leo Scienza’s opener was cancelled out by Ebou Adams.
So which number matters more? The form, or the history?
The table gives a first clue. Southampton sit 13th, three points off the top eight, and they’re doing it while carrying a four-point deduction from the Spygate affair. Portsmouth are two points worse off in 19th. Take the deduction away and the Saints would be sitting much closer to the play-off places, which tells you plenty about the quality gap.
The build-up has finally calmed down off the pitch too. Tonda Eckert was handed a suspended ban and a fine by the FA this week, which means he’ll be in the home dugout for his first home derby. John Mousinho said the outcome made no difference to how Pompey prepared, and that’s probably true: the hard yards for Portsmouth are all on the grass.
Kick-off is at 13:00 Paris time (12:00 UK time) on Sunday 11 October at St Mary’s Stadium.
Southampton: the only perfect home record in the Championship, and Larin is fit 
Here’s the key thing about Southampton at home this season: they don’t just win, they win well. Millwall were beaten 5-1, Swansea 3-1 and Bristol City 4-1. No other side in the division has a perfect home record.
The away form is a different story, and it’s worth being honest about it. The Saints haven’t won on the road in the league yet, and they went into the international break off the back of a 2-1 defeat at Wrexham. James Ward-Prowse had pulled them level after Kieffer Moore’s opener, before a late goal left them with nothing.
That doesn’t really matter on Sunday. This one’s at home.
The good news from the break is that Cyle Larin and goalkeeper Daniel Peretz have both shaken off the knocks that sent them home early from international duty. Larin is the Championship’s leading scorer, and without him the supply line into the box would look a lot thinner. Caspar Jander is also pushing to make a matchday squad for the first time since a pre-season quad injury.
Ward-Prowse is the other name to watch. Born in Portsmouth, he was part of the Southampton side that won 4-0 at Fratton Park in 2019, and he’s already faced Pompey once this season, with West Ham in a 3-1 EFL Cup win in August. He knows exactly what this fixture means.
A four-point penalty, a manager who’s spent weeks waiting for a verdict, and still a side that scores three every time it plays at home. That’s a group that knows what it’s about.
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Portsmouth: three games unbeaten, but a long injury list and a ground they’ve never won at 
Portsmouth’s season started badly. One win and three defeats from their first four league games left them looking over their shoulders early in their third straight Championship campaign.
Credit where it’s due, though: they’ve steadied things since. A 2-0 home win over Cardiff City, a goalless draw at Charlton and a 2-2 with Blackburn Rovers at Fratton Park make it three without defeat. They also kept themselves sharp in the break with a 2-0 win over Chelsea behind closed doors, although a friendly is a friendly.
The problem is the treatment room. Benjamin Arthur, Conor Ogilvie, Mark Kosznovszky, Luke Brooke-Smith, Franco Umeh and Thomas Waddingham are all out, and Mousinho will make late calls on Conor Shaughnessy and Marko Milovanovic. Keshi Anderson is back in training after a pre-season quad problem, but Pompey are being careful with the 31-year-old.
Then there’s the venue. Portsmouth have never won a league game at St Mary’s, and they haven’t won a league match away at Southampton since January 1988. That record takes some explaining, even if Mousinho’s side earned a draw there last season.
Both of their league wins this term have come against newly promoted opposition. A side 13th in the table with a perfect home record is a different level of test, and it won’t get easier from here.
Probable lineup Southampton: Peretz; Bree, Wood, Schlotterbeck, Manning; Downes, Ward-Prowse; Matsuki, Azaz, Scienza; Larin
Probable lineup Portsmouth: Bielica; Swanson, Dia, Shaughnessy, Meghoma; Pack, Shein; Kamara, Segecic, Kavuma-McQueen; Shade
Free Football Prediction: Southampton vs Portsmouth
Our prediction: Southampton to win
The draws in this fixture are real, and we don’t dismiss them. But the last four derbies were played between Southampton sides that didn’t look anything like this one at home. Four wins from four at St Mary’s, at least three goals in every one of those games, and the division’s top scorer back fit: the numbers point one way.
Portsmouth have improved, but their good run came against Cardiff, Charlton and Blackburn. They arrive with six players injured and two more doubtful, and their attack hasn’t shown the kind of ceiling needed to keep pace if Southampton score first.
Derbies can get messy, and Pompey will make this physical. Even so, the gap in home form and attacking quality is too wide to ignore. We’re backing Southampton to finally end the run of draws and take the three points.
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