- 1 South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters: six points between them heading into the final round
- 2 South Sydney Rabbitohs: 42 points scored at the Titans to finish in form
- 3 Sydney Roosters: two straight defeats after a strong run
- 4 NRL prediction South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters: six points between them heading into the final round 
The Sydney Roosters sit on 38 points, the South Sydney Rabbitohs on 32. Six points separate the two clubs as the 27th and final round of the regular season gets underway.
The derby takes place on Friday 4 September at 20:00 local time at Allianz Stadium. It is one of the last games before the finals begin.
The Roosters are fourth with 16 wins from 23 matches. Souths are sixth, with 13 wins and 10 defeats.
Both clubs have already booked their place in the finals. What is still up for grabs is the exact order inside the top eight, and therefore the shape of the opening-week fixtures.
For the Roosters, fourth place is locked in mathematically, with fifth-placed Cronulla unable to get beyond 36 points. The only question is whether they can close in on the Dolphins, who are level with them on 38.
The Rabbitohs are part of a pack on 32 points with the Knights and the Cowboys. A win at Allianz Stadium would lift them into the upper half of that group.
The first meeting of the season went the Roosters’ way, 26-18, in round two, also at Allianz Stadium. That is the most useful direct reference for this one.
At the top, the Warriors and Panthers are setting the pace on 40 points apiece. The Dolphins and Roosters follow on 38.
Souths are in a tight bunch: the Knights and Cowboys also have 32 points. The Sharks, in fifth, are on 34.
So this final round will decide the exact shape of the top eight. It will also set the opening slate of finals matches.
South Sydney Rabbitohs: 42 points scored at the Titans to finish in form 
Souths have won three of their last four games. That’s a marked change from the first half of the club’s season.
The run began with a 28-24 win over the Eels in round 23. A tight one, sealed in a match that had plenty of open football.
A week later, the Rabbitohs went to the Bulldogs and came away with a 22-6 win. That was their best defensive display of the stretch, with just one try conceded.
The wobble came at home to the Warriors, where they were beaten 26-45. Forty-five points conceded in one game was the worst return of the run.
The response came straight away on the Gold Coast: 42-22 against the Titans in round 26. Souths posted their highest attacking total of the month there.
The key issue is that defensive inconsistency. A side capable of holding the Bulldogs to six points but shipping 45 against the Warriors is hard to trust in a derby.
Across their last four outings, Souths have scored 118 points and conceded 97. The overall return is positive, but the defensive load is still heavy.
Their two away games in that spell, at the Bulldogs and Titans, both ended in wins. The only defeat came at home, against the Warriors.
The 42 points scored on the Gold Coast is their best attacking showing in this run. The attack is clicking at the right time.
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Sydney Roosters: two straight defeats after a strong run 
The Roosters come into this off the back of two straight defeats. It’s their first rough patch in several weeks.
The month had started nicely enough. A 20-18 win over the Bulldogs, then a 12-6 victory away at the Panthers in round 24.
That Penrith win sums them up best: low scoring, tight at the back, and an opponent held to six points. That is the Roosters’ lane.
Round 25 turned on a knife-edge, with a 24-25 loss to the Wests Tigers. A slip against a side sitting 14th.
The 12-26 defeat to the Dolphins the following week is more worrying on the attacking side. Twelve points is the Roosters’ lowest total of this run.
Even so, the bigger picture is still strong: 16 wins from 23 matches and 38 points. No other side in the top six can match that ratio, apart from the Warriors and Panthers.
Across the last four rounds, the Roosters have scored 68 points and conceded 75. This time the return is negative.
That is the exact reverse of Souths’ form over the same stretch, with 118 points scored and 97 conceded. The momentum is with the Rabbitohs.
Still, the Roosters remain the fourth-most successful side in the competition by wins. Sixteen victories from 23 games, against 13 for tonight’s opposition.
Projected South Sydney Rabbitohs line-up: Not released at time of publication.
Projected Sydney Roosters line-up: Not released at time of publication.
NRL prediction South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Sydney Roosters
Our prediction: Sydney Roosters to win
The Roosters already beat the Rabbitohs 26-18 this season, in round two and on this same Allianz Stadium surface. The head-to-head reference is in their favour.
The season numbers also point one way: 16 wins to 13, and a six-point lead in the standings. Souths, too, conceded 45 points against the Warriors two rounds ago, something the Roosters’ defence has not come close to doing during this run.
The Roosters end their two-game losing streak and get the job done at Allianz Stadium.
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