- 1 South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights: 34 points apiece, and a season and a match on the line
- 2 South Sydney Rabbitohs: 50 points in the last game, plus the benefit of home turf
- 3 Newcastle Knights: same record, much thinner margin
- 4 NRL Prediction South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
- 5 First up, a note on our free picks
- 6 No obligation on our part
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights: 34 points apiece, and a season and a match on the line 
Fourteen wins, ten losses, 34 points: South Sydney and Newcastle finished the NRL regular season with exactly the same record. Only points difference separates them in the table, 113 for the Rabbitohs and 42 for the Knights.
That 71-point gap was enough to split the two clubs, sixth and seventh. It also decides who hosts this Friday, 11 September, with kick-off at 7.50pm local time at Allianz Stadium in Sydney.
This is the second knockout game of the finals. The loser is gone immediately, no second bite at the cherry.
The winner, meanwhile, gets an away semi-final against the loser of the qualifying final between the Warriors and the Dolphins. Small reward, brutal punishment.
One logistical call is worth noting. South Sydney have chosen to play at Allianz Stadium rather than their usual home, Accor Stadium, to open the finals.
Their last outing on this surface left a mark. On 4 September, to finish the regular season, they hammered the Sydney Roosters 50-20.
The final standings sum up just how tight the top end was. Cronulla in fifth, South Sydney in sixth and Newcastle in seventh all finished on 34 points, separated only by points difference.
South Sydney Rabbitohs: 50 points in the last game, plus the benefit of home turf 
Souths finished sixth with 14 wins from 24 games and a points difference of plus 113. That is the best differential among the four teams in the knockout rounds, aside from Cronulla.
The final round was a statement. The Rabbitohs put 50 past the Sydney Roosters, a side who finished fourth and went straight through to a qualifying final.
That result mattered for more than local bragging rights. It pushed South Sydney above Newcastle and flipped them from travellers to hosts for week one.
In a knockout format, that is anything but cosmetic. It saves a trip and puts the game in a setting the club has just owned.
Attack is their clearest strength. The plus-113 differential shows a side that has regularly found a way to move the scoreboard over the course of the season.
The end-of-season schedule has also kept the Rabbitohs in rhythm. They played their last match on 4 September, exactly one week before this one.
The mood around the club has changed. After a season spent fighting around the qualification spots, Souths head into the finals looking like a side peaking at the right time.
The stadium call is a fair point too. The club has opted for Allianz Stadium instead of its usual Accor Stadium home to launch its September push.
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Newcastle Knights: same record, much thinner margin 
Newcastle wrapped up the regular season with 14 wins and 10 losses from 24 matches, the exact same total as South Sydney. The differential, though, sits at plus 42.
That 71-point gap to the Rabbitohs says a lot about the two sides. The Knights win, but rarely by much, and when they lose, they can get hit hard.
The final table confirmed it. Newcastle finished seventh despite matching Friday’s opponent on points, level with fifth-placed Cronulla, who boast a differential of 149.
So they head on the road when a different final-round result might have sent them home. It hinged on very little.
Still, qualifying is an achievement for this group. Newcastle are back in the finals after a regular season that held together over the long haul, with a winning record across 24 matches.
The knockout format does shift the picture, at least a bit. Over one game, the differential built over 24 rounds does not carry across in a clean line.
The Knights also have one simple number on their side. Fourteen wins from 24 matches is exactly the same total as the Rabbitohs managed in the same span.
Fitness and rhythm are the question, though. The Knights did not play the final round of the regular season, while South Sydney came in off a 50-point statement.
That break can be spun the other way too. A fresh group walks into a sudden-death game with more in the tank, and that matters when you’re on the road.
The stakes go beyond Friday’s result. The winner goes to a semi-final next week away to the loser of Warriors v Dolphins, with no home advantage.
Likely South Sydney Rabbitohs line-up: Not announced at the time of publication.
Likely Newcastle Knights line-up: Not announced at the time of publication.
NRL Prediction South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights
Our prediction: South Sydney Rabbitohs to win
Points difference splits two sides with identical records: plus 113 for Souths, plus 42 for Newcastle. Over 24 rounds, that gap points to a stronger ability to set the tempo and open up leads.
The 50-20 demolition of the Sydney Roosters on 4 September, on this same Allianz Stadium pitch, is the freshest form guide. It came just a week ago and was against a higher-ranked opponent than the Knights.
South Sydney are at home, coming off a statement win, and they have the better attack of the two. The Rabbitohs should get through.
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