- 1 South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Melbourne United: the Throwdown arrives with both sides searching for rhythm
- 2 South East Melbourne Phoenix Analysis
- 3 Melbourne United Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Melbourne United
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Melbourne United: the Throwdown arrives with both sides searching for rhythm 
South East Melbourne Phoenix host Melbourne United at John Cain Arena on Saturday 10 October, with tip-off at 10h30 Paris time. The Melbourne derby, known as the Throwdown, is a Round 4 fixture that carries bragging rights as well as ladder points.
The Phoenix are 2-3 and sit seventh after beating Illawarra 113-96 on Sunday 4 October. United are 1-3 under new coach Jacob Chance, and they come in after a 107-95 loss to Cairns on Saturday 3 October.
The recent history of this rivalry points toward United. They won three of the four Throwdowns last season, and the Phoenix’s only victory in that run was a 111-86 result.
This year brings new faces on both sides. Cole Anthony leads United’s scoring, while Nathan Sobey is back for the Phoenix after a back issue kept him out of their first two games.
The market has already taken a position. Gobet tips the Phoenix at $2.15, projects a four-point home win and notes that United have lost four of their last five games.
South East Melbourne Phoenix Analysis 
The Phoenix are 2-3, and their results have moved in both directions. They opened with a 100-79 win at Perth, lost 96-91 to Tasmania after leading by 16, and then fell 92-88 at Perth on 2 October in a game the Wildcats led at every quarter break.
Their latest game was the best of the run. The 113-96 win over Illawarra was built on a 36-18 second quarter and a 59-41 halftime lead, with 16 of 41 shooting from three doing most of the damage.
Sobey scored 24 points with 6 assists on 8-of-16 shooting, including 4 of 9 from three. Dash Daniels added 16 points, 8 rebounds and 6 assists off the bench, and D’Shawn Schwartz scored 15 on 4-of-10.
Daniels has been one of the stories of the early season, scoring 24 points with 12 rebounds in his debut. Sobey described his growth from last season as night and day, which is a notable endorsement from a veteran guard.
The decisive point for the Phoenix is protecting leads. They gave up 58 second-half points to Tasmania after being 16 clear, and a repeat against a United side with scorers like Anthony would make the evening uncomfortable.
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Melbourne United Analysis 
United are 1-3, with defeats by 97-95 to Adelaide, 84-82 at Tasmania and 107-95 to Cairns. Two of those were close, which suggests the problem is finishing games rather than building them.
The Cairns loss followed that pattern. United led by nine going into the final quarter, then were outscored 35-14 in it, and Cole Anthony fouled out after scoring 40 points on 11-of-26 shooting with 16 of 17 from the free throw line.
The perimeter was the other issue. United shot 5 of 24 from three (20.8%) against 15 of 39 for Cairns, a difference that no amount of free throws could cover.
There were positives. Josh Oduro had 11 points and 11 rebounds against Cairns after 22 points and 8 rebounds at Tasmania, Joe Ingles scored 18 with 5 assists in Hobart, and Malith Machar produced 14 points in 14 minutes. Anthony is averaging 24.8 points this season.
Availability matters here. Chris Goulding missed the Cairns game, Shea Ili returned from a hamstring problem, and Sean Macdonald is out for the season with an ACL injury, so the decisive point is whether United can find balance beyond Anthony’s scoring.
Probable lineup South East Melbourne Phoenix: Not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Melbourne United: Not announced at time of publication.
Free NBL Prediction: South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Melbourne United
Our prediction: South East Melbourne Phoenix win
The Phoenix have the momentum of a 113-point night and a healthy Sobey, who looked sharp in his last outing. At John Cain Arena, with a young core growing in confidence, they are the more settled side right now.
United have lost three of four and gave away a nine-point lead against Cairns, while shooting 20.8% from three. Until that finishing problem is solved, a team built around one big scoring night from Anthony stays vulnerable.
The Throwdown history favors United, but the current form favors the home side, and we back the Phoenix to win.
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