Chivu’s side start where they finished
Serie A returns on 22 August. The supercomputer has already picked a winner.
Opta ran 10,000 simulations of the 2026-27 season and came back with Internazionale on top, giving Cristian Chivu’s side a 35.1% chance of retaining the Scudetto. Inter open at San Siro against newly promoted Monza, and the model does not see much reason to doubt them.
The evidence from last season is hard to argue with. Inter won the league by 11 points, scored more goals than anyone else (89) and conceded the joint-fourth-fewest (35), with only Como (29), Roma (31) and Juventus (34) tighter at the back. Chivu picked up the Coppa Italia too, becoming just the fifth manager to win the Scudetto in his first season in charge of Inter, after Arpad Weisz, Alfredo Foni, Giovanni Invernizzi and Jose Mourinho.
He has added John Stones on a free transfer from Manchester City to that defence. Stones collected 17 major trophies in Manchester, six of them Premier League titles.
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The chasing pack has changed almost every bench
What makes this title race hard to model is how many rivals swapped managers. Massimiliano Allegri takes over at Napoli from Antonio Conte. Ruben Amorim replaces Allegri at Milan. Gennaro Gattuso arrives at Lazio after leaving the Italy job, and Maurizio Sarri takes charge of Atalanta. Only Roma and Juventus held firm, sticking with Gian Piero Gasperini and Luciano Spalletti.
The model rates Como as Inter’s nearest challenger at 13.6%, ahead of Roma (12.7%) and Juventus (11.4%). Fabregas keeping Nico Paz for another season matters here: the midfielder was directly involved in 18 goals last term, more than any other midfielder in Serie A, scoring 12 and adding six assists.
Napoli sit at 7.5% and Atalanta at 6.8%, which feels harsh on a Napoli side that finished second and won the Supercoppa Italiana. Only Giovanni Trapattoni has won Serie A more often than Allegri.
At the other end
Monza go down in 42.9% of simulations, more than any other club, with Frosinone close behind on 40.7%. The final drop looks like a fight between Lecce (34.3%) and Venezia (33.7%), two clubs separated by less than a percentage point and probably by one result in May.
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