- 1 SC Paderborn 07 vs TSG Hoffenheim: 33 shots, no goals, and the stat that sums up matchday four
- 2 SC Paderborn 07: plenty of volume, plenty of possession, still no goal
- 3 TSG Hoffenheim: Hlozek’s revival, then a reality check in Crete
- 4 Bundesliga prediction SC Paderborn 07 vs TSG Hoffenheim
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
SC Paderborn 07 vs TSG Hoffenheim: 33 shots, no goals, and the stat that sums up matchday four 
SC Paderborn 07 have taken 33 shots across their first three Bundesliga games and still haven’t hit the target once. The promoted side are one of only two teams in the German top flight yet to get off the mark.
That lack of firepower has left them on one point and down in 16th place ahead of Sunday’s meeting with TSG Hoffenheim, at 19:30 at the Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn. The Westphalia club have now gone 18 league games without a win, a run stretching back to January 2020.
Hoffenheim arrive with three points and sitting 13th, a return that looks light compared with last season’s fifth-place finish. The Sinsheim club posted their second-best points total ever last term and booked a place in Europe.
That comes at a cost for Paderborn this week. Christian Ilzer’s side lost 2-0 away to OFI Crete in the Europa League on Thursday and head to Westphalia with just three days to recover.
The sides have not met in the top flight since a 1-1 draw on this same ground in May 2020, behind closed doors. Six years on, the backdrop has changed, but the stakes are still much the same for the home side.
This one comes down to a simple imbalance: one attack keeps creating but can’t finish, against a defence that has already shipped seven goals in three games. Whoever fixes their biggest flaw first walks away with the points.
SC Paderborn 07: plenty of volume, plenty of possession, still no goal 
Ralf Kettemann started with a 0-0 draw at Mainz. A hard-earned point, built on the kind of defensive discipline that got the club promoted in the first place.
Since then, it’s been tougher going. Freiburg came to the Home Deluxe Arena and left with a 1-0 win in Paderborn’s first home Bundesliga match for more than six years.
The sternest test came at Signal Iduna Park, where Borussia Dortmund cruised to a 3-0 victory. Fabio Silva opened the scoring before Felix Nmecha struck twice late on to make it look more comfortable than it probably was for long spells.
Four goals conceded in three games is not the real issue for the promoted side. The problem is the one at the other end, with Paderborn stuck on zero despite those 33 attempts. That finishing drought is why they are 16th.
The injury list is not helping Kettemann, who is without Nyamekye Awortwie-Grant after a knee injury, and Timur Gayret, who had ACL surgery before he had even kicked a ball after arriving from Verl this summer. Sven Michel and Marcel Hoffmeier are also out, while Lasse Eickel has only returned to individual work.
There is one bit of good news, though, with Laurin Curda back after the muscle issue he picked up against Dortmund and back in full training on Thursday. Kettemann, who came through the promotion play-off win over Wolfsburg on aggregate in May, is in his first season as a professional head coach in the top flight.
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TSG Hoffenheim: Hlozek’s revival, then a reality check in Crete 
Hoffenheim lost their first two league games in the same way: they went ahead, then folded. In Cologne, Adam Daghim and Ozan Kabak had given them the lead twice before Thijs Dallinga struck twice late on in a 3-2 defeat.
The same thing happened a week later, only worse. After Leon Avdullahu and Tim Lemperle had put Ilzer’s men 2-0 up, Dortmund scored three times in the final half-hour, including an own goal by Albian Hajdari in the 86th minute.
The response came last Saturday, with a 2-1 win over Stuttgart inspired by Adam Hlozek’s brace. The Czech forward had not scored in the Bundesliga since May 2025, and it was only the third brace of his career in the competition.
The Europa League quickly slammed the brakes on that momentum. The 2-0 defeat in Crete left a mark, with captain Oliver Baumann openly admitting the opposition simply wanted it more.
Six goals scored and seven conceded in three league matches: the attack has shown up, the defence far less so. That is exactly the sort of weakness a side capable of hitting the target can exploit.
Ilzer does, however, get Alexander Prass back after the midfielder was added to the squad for the trip to Crete despite a muscle scare. Bambase Conte and Adam Daghim were rested on Thursday and should return to the XI, with Andrej Kramaric and Fisnik Asllani among the attacking options from the bench for Paderborn.
Expected SC Paderborn 07 lineup: Noll ; Hansen, Scheller, ter Horst ; Obermair, Vidovic, Castaneda, Ulrich, Curda ; Pieringer, Marino
Expected TSG Hoffenheim lineup: Baumann ; M. Rots, Kabak, Hajdari, Coufal ; Daghim, Burger, Avdullahu, Conte ; Lemperle, Hlozek
Bundesliga prediction SC Paderborn 07 vs TSG Hoffenheim
Our prediction: TSG Hoffenheim to win in Paderborn
No goals in three games despite 33 shots: Paderborn simply do not have the cutting edge to win this one, and their 18-match winless run in the top flight backs that up. A blunt attack does not usually beat a side that has already scored six times over the same span.
Hlozek found his touch at exactly the right moment, with a brace that kick-started Hoffenheim’s season against Stuttgart. The return of Conte and Daghim, rested in Crete, also gives Ilzer a fresher attack against a Westphalia side missing Michel and Hoffmeier.
TSG Hoffenheim should come through at the Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn. The bet is on the visitors to win.
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