- 1 Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: 15 goals conceded in five games against a side without a home win in seven
- 2 Sassuolo: Aquilani’s side lost 6-2 at home and have seven players unavailable
- 3 Fiorentina: Vanoli back in charge, Mastantuono scoring, and four days to recover
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Sassuolo vs Fiorentina: 15 goals conceded in five games against a side without a home win in seven 
Thorstvedt scored Sassuolo’s opener against Lazio on Tuesday after seven minutes, and around the half-hour mark he was sent off. Sassuolo played the rest of the game with ten men and lost 6-2, and Thorstvedt is suspended for Monday’s game against Fiorentina.
The match at the MAPEI Stadium kicks off at 17:30 UK time on Monday 2 November. It brings together two teams in the bottom half of Serie A whose problem this autumn has been the same one: they let in too many goals.
Sassuolo have 8 points from nine games, two wins, two draws and five defeats, with 14 goals scored and 22 conceded. Their last five league games have brought one point, a 1-1 draw with AC Milan on 11 October, along with six goals scored and 15 conceded.
Fiorentina sat below them in the table going into this week. Before Thursday’s home game against Atalanta, they had four points from eight matches, one win, one draw and six defeats, with nine goals scored and 19 conceded. That result in Florence wasn’t known when this was written, and it may change the table, but it won’t change the pattern.
The question for this match isn’t really who’s better. Both have conceded more than two goals a game this season, and the more useful thing to work out is whether either defence can hold up for 90 minutes. On the evidence of October, I don’t think either will.
Sassuolo: Aquilani’s side lost 6-2 at home and have seven players unavailable 
Alberto Aquilani took over in June, and the early weeks went well. Sassuolo beat Juventus 3-2 at home on 13 September, and they’ve been reasonable at the MAPEI overall, with two wins and two draws from their last five home games.
The form since mid-September has been poor, though. They lost 2-1 at Monza on 18 September, then 4-2 at Frosinone, 2-0 at Como and 6-2 at home to Lazio on Tuesday. At Frosinone, Antonio Raimondo scored a hat-trick against them.
Tuesday’s game showed how quickly things fall apart for this team. Lazio were 3-1 up after 16 minutes, Taylor, Isaksen and Floriani all scoring, and that was before the red card. Esposito pulled one back before half-time, but Lazio scored three more.
Thorstvedt’s ban is only one of seven absences Sassuolo have to deal with. Besides him, Aquilani is without Pieragnolo and Paz with knee problems, Boloca with a muscle bruise, Koné with a broken leg, Idzes with a muscle injury and the goalkeeper Leysen with a knee problem.
That leaves Aquilani with few options to change a back line that has conceded 15 goals in five games. Odenthal, one of the team’s defenders, has two league goals, the same as Berardi, with Adzic leading the scoring on three.
Both teams have scored in four of Sassuolo’s last five matches. The exception was the 2-0 defeat at Como.
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Fiorentina: Vanoli back in charge, Mastantuono scoring, and four days to recover 
Paolo Vanoli returned to Fiorentina after Fabio Grosso was sacked, and the results haven’t turned around yet. Fiorentina lost 2-1 at Genoa on 10 October, 3-1 at home to Como on 18 October and 2-1 at Inter on 25 October.
The Inter defeat was the cruellest of those. Alex Jimenez gave Fiorentina the lead at San Siro, and Inter won it with a penalty in the 98th minute, which shows Vanoli’s side can compete with good teams for long periods without seeing it through.
The home record has been the weakest part of Fiorentina’s season, and it’s the one area where Vanoli hasn’t made any difference so far. They hadn’t won any of their last seven Serie A home games before Thursday’s match against Atalanta, going back to the end of last season. Away from Florence they’ve been better, with a 4-2 win at Venezia in September.
Mastantuono leads their scoring with three league goals, and Jimenez and Pellegrino have two each. Fagioli and Ndour have two assists apiece from midfield, so the goals are coming from more than one place even in a poor run.
Over their last ten league games Fiorentina have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. They also have injuries: Sottil, Atta, Parisi and Pongracic were listed as out, while Ranieri and Gosens, the latter with a head injury, were doubts.
Recent meetings with Sassuolo have swung between both sides, and two of the last four produced at least four goals. Fiorentina drew 0-0 at home in April, but Sassuolo won 3-1 at home in December 2025, and the two meetings before that ended 5-1 to Fiorentina and 1-0 to Sassuolo.
Probable lineup Sassuolo: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Fiorentina: Not announced at time of publication
Free Serie A Prediction: Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
Our prediction: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.63
Sassuolo have conceded 15 goals in their last five league games and 22 in nine overall. Fiorentina had let in 19 in eight before Thursday, and they’ve averaged two goals conceded a game over their last ten.
The main argument for a low-scoring game is the 0-0 in April, and Fiorentina’s away form, which has been steadier than their home results. But Sassuolo are without Thorstvedt and several defenders, and both teams have scored in four of Sassuolo’s last five matches.
Fiorentina also played Atalanta four days before this one, while Sassuolo have had six days since Tuesday. I’d back three or more goals at 1.63.
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