- 1 San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins: 82.9% win probability, the biggest mismatch on the slate
- 2 San Francisco 49ers: a defence that shut down Los Angeles
- 3 Miami Dolphins: protecting Malik Willis is the main job
- 4 NFL Prediction San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins: 82.9% win probability, the biggest mismatch on the slate 
Opta’s supercomputer gives San Francisco an 82.9% chance of beating Miami Dolphins. No other matchup on this second week comes close to that kind of gap.
The Niners are back from Australia after a 27-7 win over the Rams at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. Brock Purdy threw three touchdown passes there, going 25-for-34 for 205 yards.
Miami Dolphins, meanwhile, lost 27-13 to Las Vegas, with Malik Willis sacked five times. The Dolphins quarterback finished the game with a 29.4 QBR.
Kickoff is set for Sunday, September 20 at 4:25 p.m. ET at Levi’s Stadium.
Bookmakers have San Francisco as roughly 13.5-point favourites. For Week 2, that sort of spread tells you the market already thinks the pecking order is set.
One widely shared projection has it 30-13 to the home side. Squawka’s model gives the Niners a 78% chance of winning, with the margin estimated at around eight points.
San Francisco also has three extra days of rest compared with an opponent that played last Sunday. The time difference from Australia was already dealt with earlier in the week by Kyle Shanahan’s staff.
The two franchises came into the season with wildly different expectations. San Francisco are chasing the top of the NFC, while Miami Dolphins are still searching for stability at quarterback.
Levi’s Stadium hosts its first game of the season after the trip to Australia. The Niners get back to familiar surroundings, while their opponents have had no time to build any.
A 13.5-point spread this early in the season is still rare in the league. It underlines a hierarchy that injuries or schedule quirks have not shaken on the California side.
San Francisco 49ers: a defence that shut down Los Angeles 
San Francisco held the Rams to seven points at the Melbourne Cricket Ground. The pressure on Matthew Stafford never really let up across the four quarters.
Fred Warner and Nick Bosa were among the standouts, both back from injury. The Niners’ front seven are hitting form at exactly the right time.
Brock Purdy ran the offence without forcing it, throwing three touchdowns for 205 yards. The yards-per-attempt figure was modest; the red-zone efficiency was not.
There are, however, two injuries hanging over the group. Alfred Collins tore his patellar tendon in training in Australia and will miss the entire season, while De’Zhaun Stribling is out for a month after rolling his ankle in the second quarter.
Losing a defensive tackle for the year means the interior rotation needs reworking. The win over the Rams showed there is depth there.
Hosting a struggling attack after such a long trip is about as comfortable as it gets. Levi’s Stadium gets its first home act of the season.
George Kittle and Nick Bosa had flown to Australia at the start of the week before the game. That bit of logistics let the group adjust to the time difference before kickoff.
That same setup now works in the Niners’ favour for the return home. San Francisco played on Thursday and have three extra days to recover compared with their opponents.
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Miami Dolphins: protecting Malik Willis is the main job 
Miami Dolphins opened with a 27-13 loss to the Raiders. Ashton Jeanty did real damage, rushing for 102 yards, adding six catches and scoring two touchdowns.
Malik Willis took five sacks in that game. A quarterback under that kind of pressure can’t get any sort of vertical game going.
Willis’ 29.4 QBR sums up the night. It wasn’t all on him, though, because the protection broke down time and again.
There had been some encouraging signs in the build-up, especially during a 93-yard march by the starters against Washington. But regular season football changes the picture fast.
Against a front that just strangled the Rams, the Dolphins need to speed up the reads and protect the ball. Turnovers would be brutally expensive in a game that already looks lopsided on paper.
The trip to California comes on top of a week with little to hang on to. Miami Dolphins head into Week 2 with no statistical edge to offer the home side.
Miami Dolphins had taken preparation seriously, with a starting line-up out there on the opening drive against Washington in August. That 93-yard drive that night hinted at better things.
The jump from preseason to regular season was a reminder of how different the two are. The Dolphins found no structural answer to the opposing pass rush after a week of work.
NFL Prediction San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins
Our prediction: San Francisco 49ers -10.5 handicap
San Francisco held the Rams to seven points with Nick Bosa and Fred Warner back near their best, while also putting up 27 points themselves. Miami Dolphins, by contrast, have a quarterback who was sacked five times, posted a 29.4 QBR, and watched Ashton Jeanty pile up 102 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
The models are aligned on a Niners win, giving them somewhere between 78% and 83% chance of success, with a 30-13 projection often repeated. The full spread at 13.5 leaves little room, but the 10.5 line fits the real gap in quality much better.
The straight-up win pays too little to be worth backing. San Francisco should win by more than 10 points at Levi’s Stadium against Miami.
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