- 1 Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs: 56.6 paint points allowed, and Wembanyama coming off 52
- 2 Sacramento Kings: 0-3 at home, 17 turnovers a game and no Keegan Murray
- 3 San Antonio Spurs: six straight wins and a 52-24-8 line from Wembanyama
- 4 Free NBA Prediction: Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
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Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs: 56.6 paint points allowed, and Wembanyama coming off 52 
Sacramento gives up 56.6 points in the paint per game, the most in the NBA. On Friday 6 November the Kings host the player who just scored 52 points and took 24 rebounds against Dallas, with tip-off at Golden 1 Center set for 10:00pm ET.
The game counts in NBA Cup group play, and it’s the second meeting of the season. San Antonio won the first 130-103 in San Antonio on 27 October. Victor Wembanyama had 29 points and 10 rebounds that night, Julian Champagnie added 26, and the Spurs led by 26 at halftime. De’Andre Hunter scored 24 for the Kings and Domantas Sabonis finished with 20 points, 14 rebounds and 8 assists.
Nothing in the 10 days since has narrowed the gap between the two records. San Antonio is 6-2 and fifth in the West after losing its first two games and winning the next six. Sacramento is 1-7 and 14th, and its only win came in Dallas on Monday, 115-100.
The market has priced that in. San Antonio opened as a 15.5-point road favorite at most books, with the total at 229.5. That’s a big number for any NBA road team, and it’s the one we spent most of our time on.
Two schedule details matter. The Spurs play in Portland on Saturday at 10:00pm ET, so Friday is the first night of a back-to-back. The Kings, after hosting San Antonio, host Miami on Sunday. Last season the two teams finished 62-20 and 22-60, and San Antonio won in March by 28.
Sacramento Kings: 0-3 at home, 17 turnovers a game and no Keegan Murray 
The Kings haven’t won at Golden 1 Center this season. They’re 0-3 at home, and the latest defeat came on Wednesday, 116-103 to the Lakers, with Luka Doncic scoring 40 against them.
Darius Acuff Jr. has been the one bright spot. The rookie has 205 points and 56 assists through eight games, and he’s the first player in NBA history to reach 200 points and 50 assists through his first eight career games. He averages 25.6 points, but he shot 8-of-24 against the Lakers, and his volume hasn’t turned into wins.
Sabonis is still producing on the glass. He had 16 points and 17 rebounds on Wednesday, but the team around him scores about 110 points a night and allows more than 124. Sacramento also turns the ball over more than 17 times a game, and San Antonio converted those mistakes freely in October.
The injury list hasn’t shrunk. Keegan Murray is out with an ankle injury, Maxime Raynaud is out with a knee problem and Ben Simmons is done for the season after Achilles surgery. Daeqwon Plowden is day to day with an illness, which leaves Doug Christie short of size behind Sabonis and Precious Achiuwa.
Christie has tried zone looks to protect the rim, and teams have still walked into the paint. Against a center who went 15-of-20 inside the arc on Wednesday, that’s the matchup we’d expect to decide the night.
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San Antonio Spurs: six straight wins and a 52-24-8 line from Wembanyama 
Wembanyama’s 52 points, 24 rebounds and 8 blocks against Dallas were all career highs. He went 15-of-15 at the line, and the free throw that won it 112-111 came with 24.2 seconds left. The league hadn’t seen that combination of points, rebounds and blocks since Bob McAdoo in 1974.
The run before that was less dramatic and more convincing. San Antonio beat Utah 119-97 and Minnesota 121-111, with Wembanyama scoring 43 in the second of those games. The Spurs score about 118 points a game and allow about 108, which puts their net rating near plus-eight.
The supporting cast is doing more than it did a year ago. Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle share the ball-handling, Devin Vassell spaces the floor and Champagnie scored 26 in the first meeting. San Antonio averages close to 47 rebounds and more than 27 assists per game.
Mitch Johnson has done this with a nine-man rotation. Tobias Harris is dealing with a calf strain and Jayden Quaintance remains out after knee surgery, and neither absence has slowed the six-game run.
De’Aaron Fox comes back to Sacramento in a Spurs jersey. He gives San Antonio a third ball-handler against a Kings backcourt that has been giving the ball away 17 times a night.
Probable lineup Sacramento Kings: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup San Antonio Spurs: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBA Prediction: Sacramento Kings vs San Antonio Spurs
Our prediction: San Antonio Spurs -15.5
We’re laying the points. San Antonio won the first meeting by 27 and the March meeting by 28, and the Kings have lost Murray and Raynaud since October. A team that allows 56.6 paint points and 124 total points a night isn’t built to slow Wembanyama, and Sacramento’s 17 turnovers a game give the Spurs easy transition points on top of that.
The case against us is the schedule. San Antonio plays in Portland less than 24 hours later, and a team with a 20-point lead in the fourth quarter may rest its starters, which is how 15.5-point favorites fail to cover. Sabonis can also keep the rebounding close enough to slow a blowout.
We’d still take it at this number and would stop at 16.5. The net ratings sit roughly 21 points apart, and the first meeting was decided by halftime. We didn’t find a confirmed spread price at the time of writing, so check that it’s at 1.85 or longer before playing it.
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