- 1 Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: the Bernabeu has to answer after its first stumble
- 2 Real Madrid defend well, but the rhythm is not there yet
- 3 Rayo Vallecano score everywhere, but they concede just as much
- 4 La Liga prediction Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
- 5 Before anything else, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano: the Bernabeu has to answer after its first stumble 
Real Madrid lost in Seville to Betis on 4 September, 1-0. It was their first defeat of the season, and the attack also drew a blank for the first time.
The Madrid side sit third with nine points from four games. Three wins, one defeat and a +7 goal difference still look strong, but the perfect start has gone.
Jose Mourinho’s men made a solid start to their Champions League campaign too, beating Inter Milan 2-1 thanks to a Kylian Mbappe goal.
Rayo Vallecano head to the Santiago Bernabeu in 13th with four points. One win, one draw, two defeats and a minus-three goal difference sum up their start.
Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 September at 21:00 local time in Spain, on Matchday 5 in La Liga. The Madrid stadium, with its 78,297 seats, sets the scene.
The Vallecano side do arrive with some momentum, though. Their 3-2 win over Racing Santander on 5 September stopped the slide after the 5-2 hammering at Barcelona six days earlier.
The recent head-to-head record will cool anyone expecting a rout. The last six meetings have produced two 0-0s and one 3-3, and when Madrid have won it has never been by more than a goal.
Jose Mourinho has to get his side moving again with five players out. That gap between the paper order of things and the immediate reality is what makes this match easy to read.
The overall record is still brutal. Across the meetings listed, Real have 16 wins to Rayo’s two, with four draws.
Recent numbers, though, soften that dominance. Rayo’s last six games have averaged 4.17 goals, compared with 2.83 in Real’s.
The market has made its call without blinking: 1.13 for the Merengues, 8.50 for the draw, 15 for the Vallecano side. The question is whether the difference in class turns this into a shutout or a shootout.
Real Madrid defend well, but the rhythm is not there yet 
Real Madrid have conceded three goals in four La Liga games, or 0.75 per match. No top Spanish side has been as tight at the back over the same spell.
The attack is ticking along at the same pace with 10 goals, at 2.5 a game. The 4-0 win over Malaga and the 4-1 success at Real Sociedad set the tone at home in late August.
The wobble came in Seville. Against Betis, Madrid could not find a way through and dropped their first points of the season.
Mourinho is working without Ferland Mendy, Eder Militao, Raul Asencio, Aurelien Tchouameni and Rodrygo. Three of those absences hit the spine, in defence and midfield, where Real have least room for error.
Up front, Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior remain the pair who can turn a match like this. Jude Bellingham operates behind them in the 4-2-3-1 used from the start of the campaign.
The Bernabeu has already seen eight Madrid goals across two La Liga home games this season. That is the platform Real need to lean on as they try to wipe out the Seville setback.
The trip to Seville snapped a decent away run. Before Betis, Real had beaten Espanyol 2-1 on 22 August.
Their summer build-up also set the tone, with a 3-0 win at Schalke 04 and a 1-0 victory at La Coruna. Two clean sheets, and a look that matches the team they are now.
Across their last six outings in all competitions, both teams have scored in only a third of Real’s matches. Madrid’s defensive discipline is no accident.
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Rayo Vallecano score everywhere, but they concede just as much 
Rayo Vallecano are conceding 2.5 goals per game in La Liga this season. That is more than three times what their opponents are giving up over the same stretch.
At the other end, they are averaging 1.75 goals per match. Both teams have scored in all four of Rayo’s league games since August.
The 3-2 win over Racing Santander summed up the split personality. Capable of scoring three, the Madrid club still cannot shut the door for 90 minutes.
Benat San Jose is without Isi Palazon, a regular on the right, and goalkeeper Alvaro Batalla. Two absences that matter in a squad already stretched for a trip like this.
The 4-3-3 should be built around Sergio Camello up top, with Jorge de Frutos and Alvaro Garcia wide. Florian Lejeune and Pathe Ciss provide the base at the back.
Their last three visits to the Bernabeu have brought two one-goal defeats and a 0-0. Rayo do not win there, but they do not usually get flattened either.
August was rough for the Vallecano side. A 2-1 defeat in Seville on 15 August and a 1-1 draw with Alaves five days later damaged their start.
Then came the Catalan beating, 5-2 at Barca on 31 August. Three games without a win before Racing Santander got them going again.
In Rayo’s last six matches, both teams have scored in more than four-fifths of them. No other stat sums this side up better.
Probable Real Madrid line-up: Courtois – Dumfries, Konate, Huijsen, Cucurella – Valverde, Camavinga – Guler, Bellingham, Vinicius Junior – Mbappe.
Probable Rayo Vallecano line-up: Cardenas – Ratiu, Lejeune, Pathe Diaz, Pedrosa – Ciss, Unai Lopez, Oscar Valentin – De Frutos, Camello, Alvaro Garcia.
La Liga prediction Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano
Our pick: Both teams to score
Rayo Vallecano have scored in all four of their La Liga matches. Even Barca’s defence, despite the 5-2 scoreline, could not stop them finding the net twice.
At the other end, Real have conceded three goals in four matches and were just punished at the Benito Villamarin. Their centre-back pairing is running without Militao or Asencio, with Tchouameni missing in front of them.
The odds on this market sit around 2.00 with the main bookmakers. On risk versus reward, this is the best angle on the game: both teams to score.
The market has Madrid to win at 1.13, a price with little appeal. Backing both sides to score gives almost double the return for a scenario that looks perfectly realistic.
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